yoda Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 I've found discussions with more than 15 "the" uses tend to indicate higher end threats. We should give this one a count. Is there in the past AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 HRRR ranges from mostly meh to rather meh.. well for me. It coalesces after passing. We always screw something up in DC. A few of the locally run models give us a good hit with the storms this afternoon... dropping in from the N and NW and coming S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 A few of the locally run models give us a good hit with the storms this afternoon... dropping in from the N and NW and coming S SPC WRF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 SPC WRF too. Well that is some good news... what is the link to that model again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 Well that is some good news... what is the link to that model again? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 WRF seems to be targeting the beginning of afternoon rush.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 What say you Ian? 1/10 how shocked would you be if we saw widespread severe today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 What say you Ian? 1/10 how shocked would you be if we saw widespread severe today? define we - like a remote part of Virginia? Or areawide? if you mean areawide it's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 12z GFS has decent soundings for IAD/DCA at 18z today per Earl Barker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Some clearing will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freestater Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Lightning over NOVA last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Nice pictures freestater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 WRF seems to be targeting the beginning of afternoon rush.... more specific, please. There are multiple versions of WRF being run by multiple agencies and groups out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 with the best heating south of DC and a lot of clouds and some showers across the DC/Baltimore area, the slight risk has appropriately been shifted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 What say you Ian? 1/10 how shocked would you be if we saw widespread severe today? How often do we get actual severe around here, let alone widespread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Have some potent storms headed this way from WV, one already warned. Mountains and downsloping might weaken them a bit as they cross over into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 How often do we get actual severe around here, let alone widespread? last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 last night "How often?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Got enough sun to get the temp above 85 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 I'm not seeing the severe threat today. More like thundershowers with gusts to 40 (at most). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Northern neck peeps are likely getting hailed on. Nasty little cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 316 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WESTERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 313 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR STANLEY... OR 21 MILES EAST OF HARRISONBURG...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MADISON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Torrential downpour in Bowie... have only seen one flash of lightning so far. Seems odd when compared to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Tor in Charles Co... Couplet looked like it went right by Wes' house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 No way that thing is producing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 see ya next cape day (sorry mapgirl) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 this season seems to be mostly bombing yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 I mean a lot of people have seen a good couple of storms but I've only seen a couple of great light shows. DC has been blanked it seems. I guess we don't do svr well. We don't. We get strong storms that rain on us, have some lightning and a little but of wind, and perhaps the occasional tornado, but we don't really get severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Four Seasons Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 This is my first attempt at posting a picture, so I hope I do this right! I drove down Belle View Blvd this evening and the area did indeed get smacked pretty hard. Here is one of the photos I took. The tree hit the building. It was not the only tree in the area that was uprooted and fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Meh, it's ok. I didn't want severe for my bday anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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