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2014 Mid-Atlantic Severe Discussion Thread


Kmlwx

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HRRR still not loving the PA line holding together, but it doesn't seem to have a great handle on the current instability.   HRRR does show some cells developing out ahead of the line over northern MD this evening, and radar does show some smaller cells now underway.    kinda think that a widespread svr threat will have to come later from something organized dropping south into the local area, but based on the IAD sounding, I guess I can't rule out one of these lead cells doing something.

 

It's tricky to assess the IAD sounding, as the huge sfc-based cape is based on that very shallow super moist layer near the ground.    if you looked at the mixed-layer value, which may be a better representation of the characteristics of a lifted low-level parcel, it's less than 1/2 of the sfc-based value.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

1052 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

EASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...  

NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...  

 

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT  

 

* AT 1050 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR ARBUTUS...  

OR NEAR BEECHFIELD...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM IS  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING  

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

PUMPHREY...  

UNION SQUARE...  

BROOKLYN PARK...  

M AND T STADIUM...  

CAMDEN YARDS...  

BALTIMORE...  

LOCUST POINT...  

BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR...  

JOHN HOPKINS UNIVERSITY...  

GLEN BURNIE...  

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Firework show in N AA co. Thought this might happen as inversion settled in and small LLJ formed at the top of the inversion.

 

   

     I'm not sure I buy the idea that the sounding would now show an inversion and that these storms are elevated.  If you took the 00z IAD raob and cooled it a few degrees to the 29C (02z ob at BWI) at the sfc,   it looks like a low-level parcel could still be sfc-based.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

1105 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

 

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT  

 

* AT 1103 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR  

WALKERSVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF FREDERICK...AND WAS MOVING EAST  

AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE  

OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

WESTMINSTER...  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

 

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A  

STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO  

SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  

 

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU  

CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  

MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.  

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