Subtropics Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I was extrapolating the complex and I do think a ~midnight arrival is possible. No one should give up on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Dewpoints are near 70 in most spots. Definitely fuel for at least elevated convection tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Dewpoints are near 70 in most spots. Definitely fuel for at least elevated convection tonight. Night time lightning shows are always fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 4000 SBCAPE and 3500 MLCAPE better not go to waste this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 4000 SBCAPE and 3500 MLCAPE better not go to waste this evening Alas it will. Just like 98% of DC storm days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 HRRR has been amazingly consistent over the past couple runs showing storms in the DC metro by 4PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 As per base velocity loop and recently satellite imagery, a nice boundary oriented NW -> SE is established along the Potomac River. This could provide the focus for convection if the complex can sustain itself over the next eight to ten hours. I would like to see surface temps add another five to seven degrees before getting excited though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 HRRR has been amazingly consistent over the past couple runs showing storms in the DC metro by 4PM... It also showed convection firing in Kentucky and that has yet to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Last night we still had around 2500 SBCAPE at 11 P.M. when I got home, wish I had saved the image, hopefully tonight will be a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Another 5-7 degrees? Yeah, that's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 SPC mesoanalysis shows CAPE is falling west of the metro area. Yoda's favorite midlevel lapse rates have also come down. The good news is that a little bit better shear values have nudged closer to the area. CAPE is still excellent over DC area proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 SPC mesoanalysis shows CAPE is falling west of the metro area. Yoda's favorite midlevel lapse rates have also come down. The good news is that a little bit better shear values have nudged closer to the area. CAPE is still excellent over DC area proper. Oh well.... kinda rules out any hail tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Oh well.... kinda rules out any hail tonight Hail is kind of tough to get in widespread places around here. Washington Weather book has the most notable DC area cases - they definitely aren't like damaging wind events that can span hundreds of miles. Your best bet for hail is probably to get a really intense home brew storm to use some of our big CAPE this afternoon. Anything later tonight should be damaging winds primarily (if anything) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Just a note about the MCS that we are watching. This severe gust was recently reported in MI: 1914 81 ADRIAN LENAWEE MI 4190 8404 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Just a note about the MCS that we are watching. This severe gust was recently reported in MI: 1914 81 ADRIAN LENAWEE MI 4190 8404 I was just about to re-post that. Would like to see more activity get going though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Token warning out in the mts BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 405 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND... NORTHEASTERN MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 430 PM EDT * AT 403 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR FORT ASHBY...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF CUMBERLAND...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I've been full sun in southern MoCo nearly all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Radar returns with the line are not impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Wasted CAPE. Moving to Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Can't believe that cell near Martinsburg just fizzled to nothing in this airmass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Some additional initiating parameters would be helpful. The vast majority of bulk shear is north of the MD border. However, it appears the region is ideally placed downstream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 STW issued off to our N and W... in W PA and N WV... winds to 75mph and its until 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I think we're in a good spot for the continuation of the MCS tonight. Every model has above 1000 j/kg tonight with the NAM leading the way with 3500 j/kg. Plenty for some severe gusts, not the OMG Derecho but good enough for some late night rumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 I think we're in a good spot for the continuation of the MCS tonight. Every model has above 1000 j/kg tonight with the NAM leading the way with 3500 j/kg. Plenty for some severe gusts, not the OMG Derecho but good enough for some late night rumbles. Bring the storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Mercer County PA reports fallen trees and power outages (PBZ CWA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I hope we get torrential rain and 75 mph wind, but no lightning. My dog hates lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 I think we're in a good spot for the continuation of the MCS tonight. Every model has above 1000 j/kg tonight with the NAM leading the way with 3500 j/kg. Plenty for some severe gusts, not the OMG Derecho but good enough for some late night rumbles. OMG Derecho or bust. Anything else is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Considering that I can't remember the last time I've seen hail, I'm content to take whatever legit svr I can get. Multi-day power outages FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Interesting... SPC moved southern line of SLGT risk south - as in it went through EZF, now its down by RIC - introduced 2% TOR probs for us... and mentioned poss intensification of line once gets over mts around 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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