yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Wish we could keep the ML Lapse Rates that are over us now for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Updated morning LWX disco PATTERN THIS MORNING REMAINS A TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND...CLOSEDLOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES..AND AN HIGH CENTERED OVER FL WITH APLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONGOING MCS NEARMILWAUKEE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVESENT THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC...WHICH MAKES SENSEGIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH OVER GA WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOWOVER THE ERN CONUS. ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER WRN PA IS DRIFTINGSOUTH...AND MAY BE A BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.CURRENT MCS THREAT TIMEFRAME IS OVERNIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING.EXPECT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED AIRMASS STORMS THIS AFTERNOONINTO THE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Ugh...I've always hated the term "airmass thunderstorms". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I like big CAPE and I cannot lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 For those of you wondering (ie: Yoda) no special 18z sounding from LWX today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 For those of you wondering (ie: Yoda) no special 18z sounding from LWX today. How will we know how much unrealized potential we're wasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 For those of you wondering (ie: Yoda) no special 18z sounding from LWX today. Makes sense - they usually only do it on really big potential days it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Makes sense - they usually only do it on really big potential days it seems. I think also because the "severe" stuff isn't coming till after late evening (i.e. 7pm)... so 18z SPEC balloon wouldn't help very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Supercells? I kid, they are prob more like mehcells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Today feels like the kind of day where you get a storm to go up that has like golfball sized hail for a few minutes and then it collapses and a nice outflow goes out on radar. Lots of instability - not a lot of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Derecho index of 3/10 tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Today feels like the kind of day where you get a storm to go up that has like golfball sized hail for a few minutes and then it collapses and a nice outflow goes out on radar. Lots of instability - not a lot of shear. LWX seemed gung-ho about tonight with the increasing shear and potential severe from a MCS or 2... I just want a good storm with decent lightening at night 1630 should be interesting to see if they keep us in SLGT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm so beside myself with recent events. https://www.facebook.com/243903418956520/photos/a.243917255621803.77405.243903418956520/852524608094395/?type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Everyone remember the morning of the June 2012 derecho they thought it would miss us also... Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm so beside myself with recent events. https://www.facebook.com/243903418956520/photos/a.243917255621803.77405.243903418956520/852524608094395/?type=1&theater So that is coming tonight? Nice... But that is an awesome shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Everyone remember the morning of the June 2012 derecho they thought it would miss us also... Just saying. June 2012 was oriented farther south to begin with. The early-day outlooks just had us on the fringe of slight risk. Still not a great forecast by SPC that day but not sure this is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 1630 OTLK -- SLGT risk remains, 15% hail/15% wind 2% TOR to the N and W a little bit fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 June 2012 was oriented farther south to begin with. The early-day outlooks just had us on the fringe of slight risk. Still not a great forecast by SPC that day but not sure this is the same. I'm still not worried about the trajectory. If anything, I'm concerned about timing. Not sure how much faster it can get moving, but if we can get it here before midnight I think we will see warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Jesus.....that's ridiculous. I'm so beside myself with recent events. https://www.facebook.com/243903418956520/photos/a.243917255621803.77405.243903418956520/852524608094395/?type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Timing def meh'ish. I don't think we can get it here before midnight. Root for home grown and tomorrow to slow a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Well 3500 SBCAPE and ~3000 MLCAPE at noon with -8 LIs have to count for something... I hope Decent ML Lapse rates as well... guess I will watch that storm in W PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Some stuff trying in Loudoun. Plenty of cu out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Some stuff trying in Loudoun. Plenty of cu out there The storm in W PA looks okay for right now IMO... its moving slowly SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The storm in W PA looks okay for right now IMO... its moving slowly SE We need a sounding to see we have 3kts of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 We need a sounding to see we have 3kts of shear. 4kts or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 We need a sounding to see we have 3kts of shear. I was hoping more for 20kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC132 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014<cut out>THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THECHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES INCENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OFCOLUMBIA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTHEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THEBALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METRO AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.A DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREAFROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MAY CAUSE DAMAGINGWINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 For our complex tonight... I am guessing we are watching what is going on currently in MI/IN/OH area where there is a current STW out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 For our complex tonight... I am guessing we are watching what is going on currently in MI/IN/OH area where there is a current STW out? Yup that is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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