NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I feel the Watch/Warning zones are right. I'm in Baltimore County, a one county out of the Tornado Watch; temperature has been slowly dropping since 1pm, down to 76-77, and about 12-13 miles NE of me in Bel Air, it is 71. Main threat IMO is NoVa. Good luck everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 What happened to the 18z sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Car therm read 74 on 83 at the md line. Up to 83 on the top side of 695. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 That sounding is pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I feel the Watch/Warning zones are right. I'm in Baltimore County, a one county out of the Tornado Watch; temperature has been slowly dropping since 1pm, down to 76-77, and about 12-13 miles NE of me in Bel Air, it is 71. Main threat IMO is NoVa. Good luck everyone Backdoor front is in Hartford county, winds still out of the east so not really pulling in the warm air that's needed. If winds shift SE then our chances improve but it's not likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 There are some really open and nice views near Woodsboro/Walkersvillle. Some decent hills and cleared farmland. Same between Westminster/Mt. Airy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I think that is the 4th STW or TW issued for Nelson county in the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I think that is the 4th STW or TW issued for Nelson county in the past hour Looks like the cell behind it is starting to rotate too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Watch those cells in Cells N/NW of RIC. I think those may be ours later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Still haven't seen any mesoscale modeling showing anything of significance for DC proper. HRRR fizzles the cells by Richmond and has the good stuff out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Was up hiking earlier in the Catocins;it was still pretty socked in when we left around 11 AM. (Probably burning off by now although not as rapidly as down here?). I was trying to get my daughter to stay so that we could time the incoming to establishing ourselves down I-270 at a nice vantage on the west view of Sugarloaf; it's got pretty nice visibility to the west (saw an absolutely gorgeous sunset from there once) and the parking is right there if and when it gets hairy. But she was tired and wanted to go home, so I guess it's regular old Fort Reno for me. Best low level SRH seems to be up that way though, at least from the latest SPC meso analysis. This is the time of year for it, that's for sure. Just saw that sounding as well. I *think* this is the one from June 4, 2008 (not suggesting there's any comparision between then and now) That was a MOD; 5/45(!)/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Still haven't seen any mesoscale modeling showing anything of significance for DC proper. HRRR fizzles the cells by Richmond and has the good stuff out west. I know one of the local models did.... showed close to what the HRRR showed that high risk was discussing earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Looks like we are going to be driving right into those storms in VA soon 81 in about 20-30 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Still haven't seen any mesoscale modeling showing anything of significance for DC proper. HRRR fizzles the cells by Richmond and has the good stuff out west. I'm wondering about that. They'd be moving into a high CAPE environment, with increasing shear. Would hate for this one to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I'm wondering about that. They'd be moving into a high CAPE environment, with increasing shear. Would hate for this one to bust.Fair amount of runs had shear tapering near 95 and east. Tho if they cold pool it shouldn't matter a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Currently driving through the cell along 81 just North of Staunton VA. Very heavy rain hard to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Fair amount of runs had shear tapering near 95 and east. Tho if they cold pool it shouldn't matter a ton. Maybe, but I think something else might be at play. We already have 25-35kts of shear over us, which is better than our recent "events". Plus plenty of cape. Here's LWX's disco: PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE. AS OF 1830Z...25-35 KTS OF SHEAR EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40S KTS ACROSS CENTRAL WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 New cell popping up S of Dale City. Looks like the cells are maintaining themselves so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Wow, in between RIC and AKQ is going to become the largest lake in VA if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Nothing is happening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Nothing is happening here Dinner time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Nothing is happening here SR models haven't really shown much for us before 6pm or so. Latest HRRR looks ok for you and me between 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Was about to say, HRRR is starting to cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Nothing is happening here Well, we have a heat index of 91. Good prep for July's 110s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 SR models haven't really shown much for us before 6pm or so. Latest HRRR looks ok for you and me between 6-8.Earlier runs of the HRRR had stuff by like 3-4 tho it is often fast. Local chasing is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Pretty nice hail signature on this cell: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 426 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT * AT 423 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED 18 MILES SOUTH OF MASSAPONAX...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILFORD...AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PARTLOW... SNELL... THORNBURG... MASSAPONAX... SPOTSYLVANIA COURTHOUSE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Earlier runs of the HRRR had stuff by like 3-4 tho it is often fast. Local chasing is silly. You know much more about sr models than me but I've never seen them do well with scattered cells before they pop. Seem to do well with organized lines and such. I'll go out on a big limb and say most all of us will hear thunder today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 No bueno from the 18z IAD sounding Link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/14061118_OBS/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 You know much more about sr models than me but I've never seen them do well with scattered cells before they pop. Seem to do well with organized lines and such. I'll go out on a big limb and say most all of us will hear thunder today. Tough with specifics quite often though the HRRR has been pretty good of late esp when it shows similar stuff run to run for a while. When waiting for slight height falls slower is often the way to go tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 That cell S of Fredericksburg might make its way towards the D.C. area later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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