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2014 Mid-Atlantic Severe Discussion Thread


Kmlwx

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 interesting evolution in the HRRR runs.   It initiates a complex of storms in east-central VA between 2 and 3PM and takes them pretty much due north with an arcing or even a bow echo structure.   It has what may be a supercell on the western flank racing north on the west side of DC with other discrete cells developing in the late afternoon northwest of DC.    This would suggest the best tornado threat in the corridor bounded by the Dulles Toll Road, I-81,  I-270, and the MD/PA border.

 

edit:   the 15z HRRR likes the eastern WV panhandle too

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  

301 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

WEST CENTRAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

SOUTHEASTERN LUNENBURG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

EASTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT  

 

* AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND  

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES  

SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH HILL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  

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Saving this AFD from LWX for posterity:

 

 

 

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE MID
ATLANTIC. DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO 2500-4000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS
THE REGION AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPTS HOVER
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND THEREFORE SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE. AS OF 1830Z...25-35 KTS OF SHEAR
EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40S KTS ACROSS CENTRAL WV. A FEW
AREAS OF CONCERN FOR SVR WX ARE 1. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS ACROSS NRN MD 2. LINEAR LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL WV AND 3. CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS NC IN VICINITY OF A
SFC TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENT FLOW IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH 0-1KM 20KTS SHEAR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOGENESIS ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6 DEG/KM AND DMG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THE
COLUMN BECOMES MORE SATURATED THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE EXPECTING
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS EVENING VS. THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DISCRETE. IF LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS
FROM WV IT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING LEADING TO TRAINING STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. INSTABILILTY WILL LIKELY
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT SHEAR WILL STILL BE
PRESENT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SVR WX INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSER THE THE MID
ATLANTIC AND WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND SVR THREAT IS LOW FOR THURSDAY.
TOWARDS THE THE AFTERNOON A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS BLUE
RIDGE REGION AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN
THIS REGION. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THURSDAY EVENING.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

309 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014  

 

VAC003-125-111945-  

/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-140611T1945Z/  

ALBEMARLE VA-NELSON VA-  

309 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014  

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT  

FOR NELSON AND ALBEMARLE COUNTIES...  

 

AT 308 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR SHIPMAN...OR  

12 MILES NORTH OF BENT CREEK...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  

 

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG  

BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

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How good is the visibility in the hills/forest along the MD line? I imagine it's pretty hard to chase around there.

Not sure have only chased locally once before. Same general area but like HGR to Thurmont. There's some decent spots around Thurmont esp. In most cases probably a bit of a struggle for good views.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

318 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

EASTERN NELSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 315 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS 10 MILES SOUTH OF SCHUYLER...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF

BENT CREEK...AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SCHUYLER...

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