andyhb Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Discrete storms beginning to develop in central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 First Warning of the day from LWX is out for Nelson... STW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Stay safe guys, doubt I'll see anything here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Currently in the wait and see phase of the chase. ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 interesting evolution in the HRRR runs. It initiates a complex of storms in east-central VA between 2 and 3PM and takes them pretty much due north with an arcing or even a bow echo structure. It has what may be a supercell on the western flank racing north on the west side of DC with other discrete cells developing in the late afternoon northwest of DC. This would suggest the best tornado threat in the corridor bounded by the Dulles Toll Road, I-81, I-270, and the MD/PA border. edit: the 15z HRRR likes the eastern WV panhandle too Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 18z sounding out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Already some decent rotation on the Lynchburg cell and the Richmond cell is quickly becoming supercellular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 TORNADO WATCH TILL 9PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Red Box: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0280.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 40/20 TOR PROBS sounds pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 301 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN LUNENBURG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA... EASTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 345 PM EDT * AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH HILL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Saving this AFD from LWX for posterity: A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE MIDATLANTIC. DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO 2500-4000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSSTHE REGION AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPTS HOVERTHE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVESEASTWARD...THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND THEREFORE SHEARPROFILES WILL ALSO INCREASE. AS OF 1830Z...25-35 KTS OF SHEAREXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40S KTS ACROSS CENTRAL WV. A FEWAREAS OF CONCERN FOR SVR WX ARE 1. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSSTHE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS ACROSS NRN MD 2. LINEAR LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSSCENTRAL WV AND 3. CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS NC IN VICINITY OF ASFC TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THISAFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THECENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENT FLOW INTHE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ANDCONVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST OFTHE REGION WITH 0-1KM 20KTS SHEAR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FORTORNADOGENESIS ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE RATESAROUND 6 DEG/KM AND DMG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THECOLUMN BECOMES MORE SATURATED THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE EXPECTINGA FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS EVENING VS. THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST OFTHE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DISCRETE. IF LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTSFROM WV IT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS THISEVENING LEADING TO TRAINING STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ANDSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. INSTABILILTY WILL LIKELYDECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT SHEAR WILL STILL BEPRESENT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SVR WX INTO THEOVERNIGHT HRS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSER THE THE MIDATLANTIC AND WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTEDFOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND SVR THREAT IS LOW FOR THURSDAY.TOWARDS THE THE AFTERNOON A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS BLUERIDGE REGION AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM INTHIS REGION. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THURSDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 11 for 11 with watches on chase days in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Meh for me. Destruction to the west only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 86/76 currently so those dews are no joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 11 for 11 with watches on chase days in 2014. How good is the visibility in the hills/forest along the MD line? I imagine it's pretty hard to chase around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 11 for 11 with watches on chase days in 2014. You want me to man the feed while you guys chase twirly things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 309 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 VAC003-125-111945- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-140611T1945Z/ ALBEMARLE VA-NELSON VA- 309 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR NELSON AND ALBEMARLE COUNTIES... AT 308 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR SHIPMAN...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF BENT CREEK...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Lot of the cells in C VA going sup and having very large hail up to ping pong ball size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 How good is the visibility in the hills/forest along the MD line? I imagine it's pretty hard to chase around there.Not sure have only chased locally once before. Same general area but like HGR to Thurmont. There's some decent spots around Thurmont esp. In most cases probably a bit of a struggle for good views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 You want me to man the feed while you guys chase twirly things?Sure if you have time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Hey heading south currently on I-81 to GA. Can see some storms near Lynchburg fired up. Any current watches that include 81? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 318 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... EASTERN NELSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 315 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS 10 MILES SOUTH OF SCHUYLER...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BENT CREEK...AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SCHUYLER... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Tight couplet on that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Storm near Petersburg, VA, is hardly moving. Radar says 2.5"+ in one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Tornado Warning NW Buckingham County in RNK CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Wish those cells were a little closer to LWX... hard to see the features in the radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Red box now expanded to include Fairfax City and Manassas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 What happened to the 18z sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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