nwburbschaser Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Just clouds here in Gettysburg, no sun at all. I really like what the HRRR is showing for this area though. Anything west of here towards South Mountain would be tricky, but this area eastward seems okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Based on the last few years I'm thinking the sun breaking out is one of the least important factors....seems to me when the sun comes out we get capped This doesn't really make sense. Surface heating does not create a cap; it helps eliminate an existing one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 SPC Mesoanalysis shows that we need a lot more heating to obtain significant instability, but the shear and helicity values are decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Well, at least it appears to be brightening, but I think it's going to be at least another hour or so until any type of significant sun starts to shine through. It's going to be hard to get into the mid to upper 80's at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 SPC Mesoanalysis shows that we need a lot more heating to obtain significant instability, but the shear and helicity values are decent. True, CAPE to our south isn't too bad, hopefully we can get some clearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 True, CAPE to our south isn't too bad, hopefully we can get some clearing 1000-1500 sfc CAPE at the 11a mesoanalysis is pretty decent IMO. We have plenty of severe weather days around here with nothing more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Backdoor cold front not doing as much damage as one would think. Granted, I will need to live vicariously thru your obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 There were actually a good amount of tornadoes... but all EF0 or EF1 types -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120601 I actually felt a bit of terror that day as the storms quickly blossomed SW of here with hook echoes. One twister tracked about a half mile from my house in fact EF-1 for 4 miles. It was one of the larger tornadoes that day at 150 yards...plus, I heard it go by WHOOP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Been full sun here for few hours now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 1630 OTLK should be interesting... I could see 5/15/15 still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 1630 OTLK should be interesting... I could see 5/15/15 still Maybe they'll extend the slight eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I am gathering LWX will be doing an 18z SPEC sounding? Or 17z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 If we accept the SPC meso analysis page for 16z for LWX region: 1000-2000 MLCAPE 1500-2500 SBCAPE Sup Composite 2-4 Bulk shear ~35 kts LI's -4 to -7 ML Lapse Rates 6 to 6.5 C/KM 1630 OTLK remains 5/15/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Bright sunshine in DC. 79/70...so starting to heat up for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 SUMMARY...RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN VA/EASTERN KY AND MUCH OF WV TO EASTERN OH/SOUTHWEST PA. THE REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0953.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Cells already popping up in WV/Western VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 As per LWX, there will be a special 18z sounding from IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Hell of a heat index @ http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.473179504000484&lon=-77.99665974399966&site=all&smap=1#.U5iMivldX3R lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 This doesn't really make sense. Surface heating does not create a cap; it helps eliminate an existing one. I trust you...but it seems like every year these threads turn into sun obs and before you know it it's dark lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 17z mesoanalysis from SPC -- 1500-2500 MLCAPE along and SW of a line from MRB to DCA... 2000-2500 SBCAPE in same area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Not a pity discussion for once.. Quote AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL PA AND PORTIONS OF MD/NORTHERN VA/DC/WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 111732Z - 111930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL PA AND PORTIONS OF MD/NORTHERN VA/WV PANHANDLE AND THE DC METRO VICINITY. A WATCH IS LIKELY BY AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...LIKELY INFLUENCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION/OUTFLOW...A ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COINCIDES WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT ANGLES FROM WESTERN/SOUTHERN PA EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN MD. THE AIR MASS ALONG /AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF/ THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STEADILY WARM WHILE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OCCUR /MIDDLE AND SOME UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF VA AND ADJACENT MD/WV...BUT AT LEAST 1000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH MUCH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. BENEATH A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...GENERAL PREVALENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MAXIMIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND/OR CROSSING THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/11/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 It's on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Come on red box.. ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 This should be an interesting 18z SPEC sounding from LWX Should be red boxed by 19z IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Blue box in SW VA and WV just issued until 9pm... hail to 1" and winds to 70mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 interesting evolution in the HRRR runs. It initiates a complex of storms in east-central VA between 2 and 3PM and takes them pretty much due north with an arcing or even a bow echo structure. It has what may be a supercell on the western flank racing north on the west side of DC with other discrete cells developing in the late afternoon northwest of DC. This would suggest the best tornado threat in the corridor bounded by the Dulles Toll Road, I-81, I-270, and the MD/PA border. edit: the 15z HRRR likes the eastern WV panhandle too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 interesting evolution in the HRRR runs. It initiates a complex of storms in east-central VA between 2 and 3PM and takes them pretty much due north with an arcing or even a bow echo structure. It has what may be a supercell on the western flank racing north on the west side of DC with other discrete cells developing in the late afternoon northwest of DC. This would suggest the best tornado threat in the corridor bounded by the Dulles Toll Road, I-81, I-270, and the MD/PA border. edit: the 15z HRRR likes the eastern WV panhandle too One of the LWX local models has the same idea, bringing the bow echo/MCS through the area around 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 17z mesoanalysis from SPC -- 1500-2500 MLCAPE along and SW of a line from MRB to DCA... 2000-2500 SBCAPE in same area 18z -- 2000-3000 SBCAPE and 1500-2000 MLCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Havent seen this in a while: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC236 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONGWITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S WITHIN AND SOUTHOF THE WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN AREA...THE REGION IS UNDER THETHREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OFTHESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING... AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...TORNADOESARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOSTLIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS BETWEEN 400 PM AND 800 PM EDT.THE AREA MOST VULNERABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE64 ACROSS VIRGINIA`S NORTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND WEST OFINTERSTATE 95 SOUTH OF THE CITY OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND TOFREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA. THIS INCLUDES THE GREATER WASHINGTON DCAND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS...HAGERSTOWN MARYLAND...THENORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA.RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO THIS REGION...ALONG WITH MARINERS ON THECHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...SHOULD HAVE AN INCREASEDAWARENESS OF THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENING.IF A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING IS ISSUED...SEEK SHELTERINDOORS IMMEDIATELY...PREFERABLY IN A BASEMENT OR THE LOWEST LEVELOF A STURDY BUILDING. IF YOU ARE IN A BOAT...SEEK SAFE HARBORIMMEDIATELY.$$LEE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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