mitchnick Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 12z NAM sounding for KIAD at 18z today per Earl Barker. Pardon my question, but is that backing or veering of the winds on that sounding near the surface? Or neither? SKT_NAM__KIADWEDJUN11.png low level easterly flow is my "pure" guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Still very cloudy outside. Need to get the sun out ASAP to get things heated up and de-stabilized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Interesting part from new AFD - "THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND HODOGRAPHS LOOKPROMISING FOR TORNADOGENESIS...DMG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FOR AREASWEST OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE SE WIND AT THE SFC WILL HAVETHE POTENTIAL TO DRAW IN STREAMWISE VORTICITY WHERE UPDRAFTSFORM INCREASING THE RISK OF TORNADOES" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Still very cloudy outside. Need to get the sun out ASAP to get things heated up and de-stabilized. Should be out of here pretty soon... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ma/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Interesting part from new AFD - "THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND HODOGRAPHS LOOK PROMISING FOR TORNADOGENESIS...DMG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FOR AREAS WEST OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE SE WIND AT THE SFC WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DRAW IN STREAMWISE VORTICITY WHERE UPDRAFTS FORM INCREASING THE RISK OF TORNADOES" AFD hasn't updated for me yet... but where is that boundary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 AFD hasn't updated for me yet... but where is that boundary? "THE AREA OF CONCERN IS WEST OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH INCLUDES SRN MD...DC METRO...NOVA...PANHANDLE OF WV AND PH OF MD AND WESTWARD" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Does anybody remember the date when we had a MOD risk due to the tornado threat? I think we were hatched... but I believe nothing came of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Haven't seen this in a while from LWX in their updated AFD: WE URGE EVERYONE TO STAY TUNED TO OUTLETS WHERE THEY RECIEVE THEMOST UP TO DATE WEATHER INFORMATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Does anybody remember the date when we had a MOD risk due to the tornado threat? I think we were hatched... but I believe nothing came of it June 1 2012 must have been the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 June 1 2012 must have been the last one. Yeah, I think this was one of the few times we had 15% and hatched around here for TOR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 June 1 2012 must have been the last one. If that's the day I'm thinking of, I remember it being similar to today in that we couldn't get rid of the clouds and things just didn't destabilize enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 If that's the day I'm thinking of, I remember it being similar to today in that we couldn't get rid of the clouds and things just didn't destabilize enough. There were actually a good amount of tornadoes... but all EF0 or EF1 types -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120601 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 If that's the day I'm thinking of, I remember it being similar to today in that we couldn't get rid of the clouds and things just didn't destabilize enough.Pretty rare to get a perfect setup here. Usually high shear low cape or low shear high cape. That day over performed in ways IMO since a closed low usually isn't as good as a progressive open wave for tornadoes. But put good 500 vorticity in the SE lakes and you can get good stuff. I doubt they will go above 5% but maybe a small 10% if they are feeling excited. Shear is a bit too borderline to get crazy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 There were actually a good amount of tornadoes... but all EF0 or EF1 types -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120601 That was the day I was thinking of. I remember thinking how much worse it could have been if the clouds had ever cleared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Pretty rare to get a perfect setup here. Usually high shear low cape or low shear high cape. That day over performed in ways IMO since a closed low usually isn't as good as a progressive open wave for tornadoes. But put good 500 vorticity in the SE lakes and you can get good stuff. I doubt they will go above 5% but maybe a small 10% if they are feeling excited. Shear is a bit too borderline to get crazy though. I don't know about that... 12z NAM had 0-6km shear at around 35kts, which should be good enough. Not calling for an outbreak, but wouldn't be surprised if a TOR Watch was issued for us today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Based on the last few years I'm thinking the sun breaking out is one of the least important factors....seems to me when the sun comes out we get capped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Based on the last few years I'm thinking the sun breaking out is one of the least important factors....seems to me when the sun comes out we get capped I would argue the opposite... on our supposed big days we always seem to hold on to the clouds longer and don't get enough sun for instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Waiting on the next SPC outlook to see whether I call off work or not to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I don't know about that... 12z NAM had 0-6km shear at around 35kts, which should be good enough. Not calling for an outbreak, but wouldn't be surprised if a TOR Watch was issued for us today5% is a pretty good risk. Could get a tor watch with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Based on the last few years I'm thinking the sun breaking out is one of the least important factors....seems to me when the sun comes out we get cappedWith sfc moisture like it is not the hugest factor. Don't think cap is a huge problem today tho lower shear DC and east may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 5% is a pretty good risk. Could get a tor watch with that. Agree. LWX seems bullish on the tor threat though... wouldn't be surprised to see a nudge to 10% in the areas that LWX outlined as their "concern zone" in their updated AFD (west of I-95 to I-81 corridor region) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Waiting on the next SPC outlook to see whether I call off work or not to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Been stuck under clouds all morning, but I'm a little too far south anyway so I'm not really expecting much. Better dynamics obviously in Northern Virginia/MD/WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Agree. LWX seems bullish on the tor threat though... wouldn't be surprised to see a nudge to 10% in the areas that LWX outlined as their "concern zone" in their updated AFD (west of I-95 to I-81 corridor region)Plus mark had a dream we would see a mid atl tor. Wedges inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Plus mark had a dream we would see a mid atl tor. Wedges inbound. Well if Mark is bullish... then all bets are off But we have pretty decent heating going on right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 HRRR has been consistently showing some nice cells straddling the PA and MD border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Think that's probably our target area. CAPE already pushing 1k+ last hour up there and turning shear should be better. Boundary south also interesting but I think Mark likes the northern target too much already. JT is coming too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Officially full sun IMBY. I wonder if they will release a PDS watch today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Officially full sun IMBY. I wonder if they will release a PDS watch today? NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Officially full sun IMBY. I wonder if they will release a PDS watch today? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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