Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm looking forward to some wind and ctg too. Yesterday morning was pretty cool. Had some close strikes and it was fun. I know we don't do severe well here most of the time but we get our fair share of strong storms. They're always fun and deserve some disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Tonight's 00z NCEP 1.33 km fire weather nest was run over the DC area. it's a relocatable nest, and it can be used for other threats if the current fire weather danger isn't too significant. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ At 16z, it has a moderately strong line segment moving quickly from west to east from roughly Manassas north/northeast to the MD/PA border, a weaker line just south of there, and then a stronger line again from Richmond to the south which dies out as a new line takes over in southeast Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm looking forward to some wind and ctg too. Yesterday morning was pretty cool. Had some close strikes and it was fun. I know we don't do severe well here most of the time but we get our fair share of strong storms. They're always fun and deserve some disco Amen brother. I've never seen a thunderstorm I didn't like. Severe or garden verity. I love them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Tonight's 00z NCEP 1.33 km fire weather nest was run over the DC area. it's a relocatable nest, and it can be used for other threats if the current fire weather danger isn't too significant. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ At 16z, it has a moderately strong line segment moving quickly from west to east from roughly Manassas north/northeast to the MD/PA border, a weaker line just south of there, and then a stronger line again from Richmond to the south which dies out as a new line takes over in southeast Virginia. Yup. There ya go. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Radar looks pretty impressive for this late at night, this time of year. I saw a report of a tornado touching down onto snowpack in indiana today. I've always wondered about that, but never heard a report of it actually happening. Im pumped for some storms tomorrow. I want to see a thunderstorm demolish my remaining snowpack. That's something you don't see everyday. It might as well go out with a bang lol. The worse the weather. The happier I am. That was Illinois and it looks like practically all of the snow had just melted. Here's a video with what looks like a little remaining snow...you be the judge. http://fox2now.com/2014/02/20/tornado-captured-on-video-in-concord-il/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 we're now into the HRRR range, and the 02z cycle looks pretty good at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 That was Illinois and it looks like practically all of the snow had just melted. Here's a video with what looks like a little remaining snow...you be the judge. http://fox2now.com/2014/02/20/tornado-captured-on-video-in-concord-il/ Ok, cool. Thanks. I should of mentioned it wasn't a confirmed report. I heard the report on TWC earlier this evening. It will be interested in seeing all the confirmed touchdowns for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 0600 DAY 1 2/5/15 Right on the western edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Latest HRRR intensifies a line as it crosses over the eastern suburbs at noon and then cranks it up pretty good as it moves toward the eastern shore. It's going to be a race against time for the warm air south of here to get north, but given that it's near 70 near RIC and the winds at DCA are south (albeit light, for now), there is probably a good chance of some weak destabilization just ahead of the arrival of the line, especially on the east side of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Sounds like a Tornado Watch is coming soon for southern LWX counties or at least bordering them per SPC MD 140 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0140.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 now 57 at Andrews, but 45 at BWI. Here in southern Howard County, I'm socked in with fog as the snowpack evaporates, so it will be interesting to see how far north the warm air can make it. Line forming to our west, so certainly a good chance at heavy downpours and thunder with elevated instability area-wide and maybe sfc-based instability on the southeast side of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 We have bounced all the way up to 67 now just outside Fredericksburg........sun trying to peek through the clouds. Will see what happens.... Edit: Temp jumped up to 70 with a dewpoint of 62, straight up humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Temperature is pretty low where I am. It's 42.6, with a dewpoint of 42. Definitely humid, but is it warm enough for good t-storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I think someone meh'd this awhile back. Maybe it was that Ian guy. I agree Also, DC split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I doubt this turns into anything substantial, but the temps are going a bit crazy. I'm up to 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Uh... what? I didn't expect this 57 WWUS30 KWNS 211536 SAW4 SPC AWW 211536 WW 24 TORNADO DC DE MD NC VA CW 211540Z - 212200Z AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 30ESE RZZ/ROANOKE RAPIDS NC/ - 25NW DOV/DOVER DE/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /50W ECG - 50WNW SIE/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22055. LAT...LON 36277855 39387720 39387440 36277587 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Uh... what? I didn't expect this 57 WWUS30 KWNS 211536 SAW4 SPC AWW 211536 WW 24 TORNADO DC DE MD NC VA CW 211540Z - 212200Z AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 30ESE RZZ/ROANOKE RAPIDS NC/ - 25NW DOV/DOVER DE/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /50W ECG - 50WNW SIE/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22055. LAT...LON 36277855 39387720 39387440 36277587 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU4. I gotta lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Snow on the ground and a tornado watch. That's a first for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 500 PM EST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA TO 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOVER DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS/SQLN NOW IN S CNTRL VA EXPECTED ACCELERATE ENEWD THROUGH LATER TODAY WHILE DEVELOPING NWD IN RESPONSE TO BOTH SFC HEATING AND APPROACH OF SECONDARY UPR VORT NOW PIVOTING NE ACROSS THE UPR OH VLY. ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTHENING OF WIND FIELD SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR EMBEDDED LEWPS/SMALL BOWS WITH A RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA...NE NC...AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...TORNADOES. Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (30%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (30%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Low (10%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (<5%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (90%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 lol watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 sun coming out in the city -- i expect breezy showers with maybe one boom of thunder. lol @ the watch, good practice for the summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 WTF with the watch. It's becoming pathetic that every shower warrants a red box down here in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 lol watch Hug me im scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 WTF with the watch. It's becoming pathetic that every shower warrants a red box down here in DC. yeahhhh, no wonder people have warning fatigue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 What are we watching for? A few hours of moderate rain lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Setting the+\- on Warnings at 3. I'm taking the over. Who's in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Well to be technical, we are on the western edge... I think the watch is more for the Eastern Shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Setting the+\- on Warnings at 3. I'm taking the over. Who's in?LWX is about to issue a tornado warning for the whole are just to be safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The cell SW looks decent actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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