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2014 Mid-Atlantic Severe Discussion Thread


Kmlwx

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   Tonight's 00z NCEP 1.33 km fire weather nest was run over the DC area.    it's a relocatable nest, and it can be used for other threats if the current fire weather danger isn't too significant.

 

          http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/

 

  At 16z, it has a moderately strong line segment moving quickly from west to east from roughly Manassas north/northeast to the MD/PA border, a weaker line just south of there, and then a stronger line again from Richmond to the south which dies out as a new line takes over in southeast Virginia.

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I'm looking forward to some wind and ctg too. Yesterday morning was pretty cool. Had some close strikes and it was fun.

I know we don't do severe well here most of the time but we get our fair share of strong storms. They're always fun and deserve some disco

Amen brother. I've never seen a thunderstorm I didn't like. Severe or garden verity. I love them all.
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Tonight's 00z NCEP 1.33 km fire weather nest was run over the DC area. it's a relocatable nest, and it can be used for other threats if the current fire weather danger isn't too significant.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/

At 16z, it has a moderately strong line segment moving quickly from west to east from roughly Manassas north/northeast to the MD/PA border, a weaker line just south of there, and then a stronger line again from Richmond to the south which dies out as a new line takes over in southeast Virginia.

Yup. There ya go. I'm out.

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Radar looks pretty impressive for this late at night, this time of year. I saw a report of a tornado touching down onto snowpack in indiana today. I've always wondered about that, but never heard a report of it actually happening.

Im pumped for some storms tomorrow. I want to see a thunderstorm demolish my remaining snowpack. That's something you don't see everyday. It might as well go out with a bang lol. The worse the weather. The happier I am.

 

 

That was Illinois and it looks like practically all of the snow had just melted.  Here's a video with what looks like a little remaining snow...you be the judge.

 

 

http://fox2now.com/2014/02/20/tornado-captured-on-video-in-concord-il/

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That was Illinois and it looks like practically all of the snow had just melted.  Here's a video with what looks like a little remaining snow...you be the judge.

 

 

http://fox2now.com/2014/02/20/tornado-captured-on-video-in-concord-il/

Ok, cool. Thanks. I should of mentioned it wasn't a confirmed report. I heard the report on TWC earlier this evening. It will be interested in seeing all the confirmed touchdowns for this system.
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   Latest HRRR intensifies a line as it crosses over the eastern suburbs at noon and then cranks it up pretty good as it moves toward the eastern shore.    It's going to be a race against time for the warm air south of here to get north, but given that it's near 70 near RIC and the winds at DCA are south (albeit light, for now), there is probably a good chance of some weak destabilization just ahead of the arrival of the line, especially on the east side of DC.

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now 57 at Andrews, but 45 at BWI.   Here in southern Howard County, I'm socked in with fog as the snowpack evaporates, so it will be interesting to see how far north the warm air can make it.    Line forming to our west, so certainly a good chance at heavy downpours and thunder with elevated instability area-wide and maybe sfc-based instability on the southeast side of DC.

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Uh... what?  I didn't expect this

57   WWUS30 KWNS 211536  SAW4    SPC AWW 211536  WW 24 TORNADO DC DE MD NC VA CW 211540Z - 212200Z  AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..  30ESE RZZ/ROANOKE RAPIDS NC/ - 25NW DOV/DOVER DE/  ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /50W ECG - 50WNW SIE/  HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.  MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22055.    LAT...LON 36277855 39387720 39387440 36277587    THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A  COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS  FOR WOU4.  
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Uh... what?  I didn't expect this

57   WWUS30 KWNS 211536  SAW4    SPC AWW 211536  WW 24 TORNADO DC DE MD NC VA CW 211540Z - 212200Z  AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..  30ESE RZZ/ROANOKE RAPIDS NC/ - 25NW DOV/DOVER DE/  ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /50W ECG - 50WNW SIE/  HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.  MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22055.    LAT...LON 36277855 39387720 39387440 36277587    THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A  COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS  FOR WOU4.  

I gotta lol

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 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1040 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF      DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA     DELAWARE     CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND     NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA     CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA     COASTAL WATERS   * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1040 AM UNTIL     500 PM EST.   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE     NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS       TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF   ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA TO 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOVER   DELAWARE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).    DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS/SQLN NOW IN S CNTRL VA EXPECTED   ACCELERATE ENEWD THROUGH LATER TODAY WHILE DEVELOPING NWD IN   RESPONSE TO BOTH SFC HEATING AND APPROACH OF SECONDARY UPR VORT NOW   PIVOTING NE ACROSS THE UPR OH VLY. ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION AND   STRENGTHENING OF WIND FIELD SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR EMBEDDED   LEWPS/SMALL BOWS WITH A RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND...ESPECIALLY OVER SE   VA...NE NC...AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...TORNADOES.
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Low (10%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (<5%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (90%)

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