wxmeddler Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Is it really that hard to get a storm top above 30k when it's 80/70? Apparently here it is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 I'm having a hard time telling from the freebie Euro, are the storms that are post-sundown here in DC proper coming straight north from Richmond? The euro, NAM, and WRFs all seem to agree that western VA is a better bet, closer to the dynamics. Looks like stuff develops in the terrain to the west and then something rolls across the center of the area after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 21z SREF on SPC site looks a little better still. Even pops up a tiny pocket of sigtor param greater than 1 in a sliver of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Taking a peek at 00z NAM soundings on Earl Barker, I would say they are decent for tomorrow afternoon for severe I am going 5/5/15 on 0600 Day 1 SPC OTLK for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Still debating to chase or not. Prob have to decide in the morning... assuming Mark is still going. The far northern VA into S PA zone looks nice esp around 21z soundingwise.. the main question is will the instability overlap. This is near the PA border on the GFS though the NAM squashes instability south with the backdoor progressing in as the day goes. 3km EHI highlights the general region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Yeah, it does look intriguing, esp with those images you posted Ian. If we can something decent early, say 2-3pm... I might head out west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 0600 SPC disco for us: ..VA...WV...MD...WRN PA...ERN OH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST S OF THE WARM FRONT DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE FIRST FROM SWRN PA INTO WV AND WRN VA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN ACROSS SRN VA AND NC WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. THE ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. HERE...INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY SUGGEST A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 00z GFS is nice for us... only caveat is 0-6km shear will be around 30 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Supercell/Tornado threat for tomorrow looks interesting. Will have to monitor of leftover convection and cloud debris delays instability tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Morning disco from LWX on threat: THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT MORETHUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TODAY ANDIT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATUREGRADIENT BETWEEN WARM AND MOIST AIR VS. COOLER MARINE AIR WILLLIKELY REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...KEEPING THE CWA IN THEWARM SECTOR. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGHTHE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS OURAREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP OVER CENTRALVIRGINIA WHERE AN EASTERLY WIND WILL BE CONVERGING INTO ASOUTHWESTERLY WIND. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OFTHE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IN THESOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...WILL LEADTO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEARPROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEARWILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CONVERGENT ZONE OVER CENTRALVIRGINIA. THE SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OFINSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCURWITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATEDTORNADOES.THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MIDAFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS AS OFNOW APPEAR TO SET UP ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...FROM CENTRALMARYLAND INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INTO NORTHERNAND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS WELL AS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERNMARYLAND.THE STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY COMPARED TO RECENTDAYS...ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE MOVE A BIT FASTER. DIDNOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS REASON...BUT WITH THE HIGHAMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH AMOUNTS OFMOISTURE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICHCOULD LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING. WILL COVER THE THREAT IN THEHWO FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 6z NAM soundings look pretty threatening IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 6z NAM soundings look pretty threatening IMO Nice sickle shaped hodographs with a sharp clockwise kink ~1 km. That said, the NAM has been pretty vile even with short term forecasts as of late. Still, it's notable how much turning in the low levels the models are indicating especially near the front. It's going to be juicy out there, already have mid/upper 60s dews entrenched across most of VA and 70s dews down in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 Some of our great severe days have rain/storms in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Looks like a chase day. I'll prob regret it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I'm in....as long as we avoid tornados and golf-sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I'm in....as long as we avoid tornados and golf-sized hail. Anything less than that isn't severe to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Nice clearing to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Better view (close-up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I might go out for footage somewhere relatively close if something good pops. There are some decent parking garages with open views scattered around Moco. Bonus that I can drop a level and avoid basketball sized hail hitting my truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 I might go out for footage somewhere relatively close if something good pops. There are some decent parking garages with open views scattered around Moco. Bonus that I can drop a level and avoid basketball sized hail hitting my truck. You underestimate today - I would expect school bus sized hail. You might have to build a bunker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I wonder if we might see a nudge up to 10% for TOR on the 1300z or 1630z OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 12z KIAD sounding, decent, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 1300z OTLK from SPC keeps 5/15/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 12z KIAD sounding, decent, right? Seems decent enough for this time of day. Would really like an 18z balloon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 9z SREF rolling in onto the SPC site is more bullish again this run. Gets pockets of 6 supercell composite param nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Clouds breaking up... sun is on way out slowly but surely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 9z SREF rolling in onto the SPC site is more bullish again this run. Gets pockets of 6 supercell composite param nearby. For 3 separate periods too -- 15UTC to 21UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Anything less than that isn't severe to me. Gusty showers with a few rumbles = Mid-Atlantic severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 12z NAM sounding for KIAD at 18z today per Earl Barker. Pardon my question, but is that backing or veering of the winds on that sounding near the surface? Or neither? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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