Ian Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 SPC trolleth us http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0922.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 SPC trolleth us http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0922.html How many "lack of" do they need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Interesting.. A one minute EF-0 (65mph) back on May 16. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 620 PM EDT MONJUNE 9 2014...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR MIDDLEBURG IN LOUDOUN COUNTY VA...LOCATION...3 MILES EAST OF MIDDLEBURG VADATE...MAY 16 2014ESTIMATED TIME...3:31 AM TO 3:32 AM EDTMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-0ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDSPATH LENGTH...0.4 MILESBEGINNING LAT/LON...38.9626N / 77.6952WENDING LAT/LON...39.9689N / 77.6909W* FATALITIES...NONE* INJURIES...NONE* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION INNWS STORM DATA....SUMMARY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC HASCONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR 3 MILES EAST OF MIDDLEBURG IN LOUDOUNCOUNTY VA ON MAY 16 2014.AFTER A REVIEW OF RADAR OBSERVATIONS...STORM SPOTTER REPORTS ANDA GROUND SURVEY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALIMOREMD/WASHINGTON DC HAS CONFIRMED AN EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN ANAREA ABOUT 3 MILES EAST OF MIDDLEBURG IN LOUDOUN COUNTY VIRGINIADURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY MAY 16 2014.THE TORNADO WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE TOUCHED DOWN AT APPROXIMATELY331 AM EDT. PEAK WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO HAVE BEEN 65 MPH. A LARGETREE WAS UPROOTED AND FELL ACROSS SALLY MILL ROAD NEAR THEINTERSECTION OF LIGHT HORSE COURT. ADDITIONAL TREES AND LARGEBRANCHES WERE FOUND UPROOTED AND COLLAPSED IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONSALONG WITH BRANCHES SNAPPED OR TWISTED AT VARIOUS POINTS ON ALARGE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY ALONG LIGHT HORSE COURT. THE TORNADOQUICKLY LIFTED AROUND 332 AM EDT.THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE ATWEATHER.GOV/WASHINGTON.$$WIDELSKI/CB/JRK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 I thought they'd already confirmed that one. Anyway, GFS lolz -- 4000 cape nearby on Wed. Shear is still marginal for my liking but I guess I want a high end event.. heh. It's probably passable though and little spokes in the 500mb flow for spark somewhere nearby. Instability axis is quite narrow but solid agreement it runs up through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 LWX ong term /Wednesday through Sunday/... Things start to get interesting across our County Warning Area by the middle of this week as a cutoff upper-level low drifts east out of the Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. A 250 mb jet streak of about 60 kts will move south to north across the Ohio Valley...placing the region squarely in its favorable divergent right entrance region during peak heating Wednesday afternoon. Southerly flow around high pressure parked over the western Atlantic will also be pumping plenty of warm and humid air into the region...and combined with cooling in the middle and upper levels ahead of the approaching trough will likely result in 2000-3000 j/kg of cape during the afternoon and evening. In addition to moderately strong instability...model forecasts indicate 30 to 35 kts of effective bulk shear during this time which will aid in storm organization. As a result...except numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area after noon on Wednesday. Should widespread clouds develop and move over the area from leftover upstream convection...instability could be somewhat less though the synoptic environment will likely still be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Mark also put us in the tornado circle for Wednesday. http://www.ustornadoes.com/2014/06/09/tornado-threat-forecast-june-9-15-2014/ I'm at least half aboard.. 0z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 I'm in so far. Obviously not perfect, but it's the mid-Atlantic, it's not going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Is it just me, or does LWX seems too bullish tomorrow comparing their disco to the SPC one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 I'm out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Looks decent enough for this afternoon to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Ian special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Ian special hrrr.JPG Looks similar to the LWX run above (WRF-ARW4N) run around that time... I posted the "line" radar image a few hours earlier... basically does what the HRRR shows but the WRF is a bit further south with its bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Ian special hrrr.JPG Heck yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Also now we know what won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Also now we know what won't happen A debbie downer, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Also now we know what won't happen WD index on WxBell is almost off the charts. Ur gonna get smoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Loving all the storms popping up around me but not over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2014 Author Share Posted June 10, 2014 1730z day 2 outlook still no slight risk for the area. Even the 5% is pretty fringe for a lot of us. I guess we can cross our fingers and hope it's a case where a 5% ends up being nice for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 1730z day 2 outlook still no slight risk for the area. Even the 5% is pretty fringe for a lot of us. I guess we can cross our fingers and hope it's a case where a 5% ends up being nice for us. Refresh? Added a slight that cuts thru the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2014 Author Share Posted June 10, 2014 Refresh? Added a slight that cuts thru the area. Darn cache! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Darn cache!Says it was corrected guess the first may have been missing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2014 Author Share Posted June 10, 2014 Says it was corrected guess the first may have been missing it. Perhaps...tho when I glanced at the discussion it was still the old one too. Regardless here's to hoping for something half decent tomorrow. I'll be down in St. Mary's County, MD for most of the day - maybe I'll be luckier there than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2014 Author Share Posted June 10, 2014 OT interesting fact that I was unaware of (maybe everyone else knew already) - apparently the LWX radar was the first WSR-88D system installed in the country for operational use. That's pretty neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 GFS remains rather gung ho tomorrow. Think there's a window for supercells mainly near the ridges and then into S PA tomorrow.. perhaps working east as a congealing line? NAM has a good bit less CAPE on the north end. Euro is kinda somewhere in the middle. GFS seems to always overdo moisture/instability tho other models often underdo it. I dunno. Earlier I was leaning toward S PA being the best target since turning is a bit better up there but maybe the CAPE play is better in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2014 Author Share Posted June 10, 2014 As always we seem to be dealing with having instability but not shear (or vice versa). Seems a decent mix for tomorrow, though. If we can snag some nice lightning and cracks of thunder I'll be fairly happy. It has been a while since a really nice storm rolled through here. The SREF on the SPC site isn't particularly exciting. Good instability but shear is pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 As always we seem to be dealing with having instability but not shear (or vice versa). Seems a decent mix for tomorrow, though. If we can snag some nice lightning and cracks of thunder I'll be fairly happy. It has been a while since a really nice storm rolled through here. The SREF on the SPC site isn't particularly exciting. Good instability but shear is pretty meh. Yeah the shear is iffy though the GFS/NAM/EURO all have 30-40kts bulk shear.. best west and north.. which could work.SREF hasn't looked too exciting all along though some categories like craven/brooks are increasing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 NAM4 at 12z was funny. 5000 cape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 GFS remains rather gung ho tomorrow. Think there's a window for supercells mainly near the ridges and then into S PA tomorrow.. perhaps working east as a congealing line? NAM has a good bit less CAPE on the north end. Euro is kinda somewhere in the middle. GFS seems to always overdo moisture/instability tho other models often underdo it. I dunno. Earlier I was leaning toward S PA being the best target since turning is a bit better up there but maybe the CAPE play is better in VA. I'm having a hard time telling from the freebie Euro, are the storms that are post-sundown here in DC proper coming straight north from Richmond? The euro, NAM, and WRFs all seem to agree that western VA is a better bet, closer to the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2014 Author Share Posted June 10, 2014 Yeah the shear is iffy though the GFS/NAM/EURO all have 30-40kts bulk shear.. best west and north.. which could work.SREF hasn't looked too exciting all along though some categories like craven/brooks are increasing now. Yeah good ole craven/brooks has come up a bit in recent runs. We'll see if trend continues. NAM4 at 12z was funny. 5000 cape! omg derecho! In all seriousness, though I think the last time we saw CAPE values like that was during the derecho in 2012...what a hot day that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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