high risk Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Not sure about the models, but NWS text forecast yesterday suggested nothing would hit the area until after 2am. It seemed to me that the NAM was suggesting before 10pm. I completely agree that yesterday's NWS forecasts were calling for a late arrival of precip, as that's what the models during yesterday were showing. But starting yesterday evening, a lot of guidance decided that convection could arrive much sooner, and they've kept that idea this morning. The post in question talks about precip arriving this evening, much earlier than the models suggest it will, and that is not what the models have been suggesting for several cycles now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Sensor Fail at Culpeper: METAR KCJR 041735Z AUTO 01004KT 10SM 53/34 A2985 RMK AO2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Taken near Raceland in NE Kentucky a short time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Local model LWX WRF-NMM's 12z run shows some cells (discrete?) around the area at 11pm and then congealing into a small line over DCA around midnight 12z WRF-ARW4N has an intense cell/storm (supercell?) directly over Fairfax County at 10pm, and then random showers and storms for rest of the night... line approaches from NW Thursday morning, but falls apart before reaching us in VA, gets MD good for most part. The "storm" that impacts the area comes from the during the 10pm hour has its origins from the area SW down by CHO and moves NE Yes, probably grasping at straws here and cherry-picking the best model runs for us... but don't we all when we want storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Tornado Watch up in SW VA and W West Virginia and Southern Ohio and North/East Kentucky until 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 I foresee a pity MD for our area tonight, no watch, and some meh/CYA warnings overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Masco seems to think we have a tornado watch coming later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Masco seems to think we have a tornado watch coming later. Source? I'm on a mobile device. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Masco seems to think we have a tornado watch coming later. I doubt that we would see a tornado watch... is he a good prognosticator of watches for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 I'm going for no md, no watch, one pity warning in the southern part of the CWA. Showers, with an cloud to cloud rumble thrown in somewhere. Was more excited about yesterday than ever was about today. Masco seems to think we have a tornado watch coming later. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 So far we have: Yoda: Pity MD, no watch, few token/meh warnings Wxmeddler: No MD, no watch, one pity warning in S LWX CWA Snowfan: MD, no watch, 3 warnings Scuddz -- 1-3, 2-5 N and W of DC, ending as wintry mix Woodbine -- MD, Watch, two warnings Anyone else want to play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 sure. no watch, an MD and 3 warnings So far we have: Yoda: Pity MD, no watch, few token/meh warnings Wxmeddler: No MD, no watch, one pity warning in S LWX CWA Anyone else want to play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Ha I'll play : MD, watch, 2 warnings - going big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 It was on Twitter. I generally agree with wxmeddler. Think people are looking for a story more than anything.. looks quite mehtastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 So far we have: Anyone else want to play? 1-3 with 2-5 NW. Ending as a mix. I'm tired... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 No MD, no watch, no warnings, gusty showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 throw in my two cents. meh md, two token warnings, but decent storm for DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 DC is in a good location as the real core of red meat convection is south of the low. Although DC Proper may not accumulate the highest QPF. Thinking a token watch later on, this event would be pretty legit by DC Standards if dews were more elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 While I'm sure there will be some token warnings, I wouldn't expect anything of significance north of I-64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 1-3 with 2-5 NW. Ending as a mix. I'm tired... welcome to parenthood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Yoda: Pity MD, no watch, few token/meh warnings Wxmeddler: No MD, no watch, one pity warning in S LWX CWA Snowfan: MD, no watch, 3 warnings Scuddz -- 1-3, 2-5 N and W of DC, ending as wintry mix Woodbine -- MD, Watch, two warnings WxWatcher007 -- MD, no watch, 1-3 pity warnings and a lot of meh AmericanWxFreak -- no MD, no watch, no warnings, just gusty showers NorthArlington101 -- meh MD, two token warnings, good storm for DC proper That's all I have for tonights severe weather guessing "game"... any one else want in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 No MD, no watch, two severe-warned rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Nothing but heavy showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Wow, got placed under a tornado watch. That was unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 No MD, no watch, no warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Fail. Few rumbles of thunder and 0.35" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 Heavy rain and wedge tornado here in Colesville, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 At least we got more rain... DC really is a swamp. About 0.5" for the total today, adding to the crazy surplus thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 What do we need to do get storms around here again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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