yoda Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Looks like 18z NAM would have a complex roll through our area sometime around 1pm or so if I am using the 11am DCA sounding on Thursday morning right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 For now looks like we either get stuff to roll in with little instability late night Wed or the timing is off on Thursday. I'd say the likelihood of being derecho'ed is quite small at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 For now looks like we either get stuff to roll in with little instability late night Wed or the timing is off on Thursday. I'd say the likelihood of being derecho'ed is quite small at the least. I would rather take the Thursday chance... its only a few hours off and instability is still decent enough for some fun... possibly damaging winds and maybe a few spin-ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I would rather take the Thursday chance... its only a few hours off and instability is still decent enough for some fun... possibly damaging winds and maybe a few spin-ups for now you probably gotta like the overnight option unless you favor the nam at this range. maybe hope to speed it up.. tho neither is particularly keen on CAPE around here on Wednesday either for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I am buying the NAM 100% I want some storms, not dying complex stuff as the GFS and EURO (I guess that what it shows) show for us BTW, are those mesolows on those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 Let's hope the return of Ian + my return from Florida brings us good storm luck. I watched one night while I was down there storms splitting around where I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Let's hope the return of Ian + my return from Florida brings us good storm luck. I watched one night while I was down there storms splitting around where I was. So, we'd want you just north/south of DC, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 So, we'd want you just north/south of DC, right? Which I am - so DC proper should be fine using that logic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 IMO, 00z NAM looks a lil dangerous with its sounding at 15z to 18z THUR across the area... granted its the only one signaling that since 00z GFS continues to signal that the complex (whatever is left of it) comes through Wed night. MLCAPE at DCA at 18z THUR is ~2300 J/KG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 06z NAM would suggest a MCS event... at least thats what I got out of it with MLCAPE of 2500-3000 at 18z THUR at KIAD and KDCA... and yes Ian, I am riding the NAM severe train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 DCA 18z THUR sounding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 From LWX AFD: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BASED ON 12Z KIAD RAOB...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING UP WITH A PWVALUE AROUND 1.4 IN. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING SUGGESTS SOMEINSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL BUT STILL ON THE WEAK SIDE.THEREFORE...AM NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WX. SECOND ROUND OFTHUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ABOVE COULD HOWEVER BE LOCALLY STRONG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 12z NAM seems to be starting to fall into line. Sorry yoder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 12z NAM seems to be starting to fall into line. Sorry yoder. 18z NAM will save the day At least some storms would be nice... LWX HWO mentions risk for severe storms for Wed night still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 All is lost when Ian bails...or was he ever in. Not even a slight risk from SPC. I suppose from the overnight timing of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 All is lost when Ian bails...or was he ever in. Not even a slight risk from SPC. I suppose from the overnight timing of things. Slight risk reaches the western portion of the LWX CWA... and Ian was never really in. I am the one who was trying to talk this "event" up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 What is the return period on legit derechos in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Slight risk reaches the western portion of the LWX CWA... and Ian was never really in. I am the one who was trying to talk this "event" up Might as well be a world away for now. The Euro/GFS still look awful meh .. the Euro basically shows us getting nothing. Granted, a good line could cross in some fashion but there's like no instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Might as well be a world away for now. The Euro/GFS still look awful meh .. the Euro basically shows us getting nothing. Granted, a good line could cross in some fashion but there's like no instability. I hope you get baseball sized hail and a super derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Incredibly this severe season has been as dull as last year through this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 I am not going to look at any parameters for this event - just going to be pleasantly surprised if something develops. I'll start following if we get a mesoscale discussion for us and not just the fringes of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Looks like the area of slight was trimmed back even further west. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 12z 4km NAM looks fun. Too bad I don't trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 12z NAM making things interesting tonight based off soundings at 03z and 06z at DCA and IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Holding out hope for tomorrow morning from LWX models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 It seems to me based on radar that this area of convection is going to get here way before the models suggest it will. The leading edge will be into West Virginia by the early afternoon. I'd expect it to roll through in the late evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 It seems to me based on radar that this area of convection is going to get here way before the models suggest it will. The leading edge will be into West Virginia by the early afternoon. I'd expect it to roll through in the late evening hours. I was gona say the same thing, we have seen these things come in earlier then forecasted over and over again, would see no reason that this is any different, wheres the sun obs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 It seems to me based on radar that this area of convection is going to get here way before the models suggest it will. The leading edge will be into West Virginia by the early afternoon. I'd expect it to roll through in the late evening hours. I don't understand this. All of the guidance I've seen this morning (NAM, GFS, 4 km NAM, RAP, HRRR, Hi-Res Windows) have convection arriving in DC Metro by late evening; some have it arriving by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 I don't understand this. All of the guidance I've seen this morning (NAM, GFS, 4 km NAM, RAP, HRRR, Hi-Res Windows) have convection arriving in DC Metro by late evening; some have it arriving by 00z. Yup, I just would like to have the storms or "complex" be somewhat interesting when it comes through the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Not sure about the models, but NWS text forecast yesterday suggested nothing would hit the area until after 2am. It seemed to me that the NAM was suggesting before 10pm. I don't understand this. All of the guidance I've seen this morning (NAM, GFS, 4 km NAM, RAP, HRRR, Hi-Res Windows) have convection arriving in DC Metro by late evening; some have it arriving by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.