yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I am going to guess LWX and SPC didn't talk before they issued their respective forecasts... LWX says hodo's arent very impressive... yet SPC bumps up the TOR probs from 2% on 0600z to 5% on 1300z ETA: Not trying to throw either office under the bus... just find it a bit weird, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 That was surprising 1300z OTLK from SPC... 5/30/30... disco below for our area MORNING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SPREADING SEWD FROM PA WILL LIKELY ACT TO ENHANCE BACK-DOOR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY BI-SECTING CHESAPEAKE BAY ATTM. AIRMASS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIDED BY ERN-MOST EXTENT OF EML PLUME EMANATING FROM THE MIDWEST. SBCAPE MAY REACH 1500 J/KG WITH GRADUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTENING. LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS SEEM REASONABLE BUT SOME MODEL SCENARIOS MAY BE TOO MOIST. LIFT OVER THE AREA WILL BE AIDED BY LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE /MCV FROM TUESDAY/S MIDWEST CONVECTION/ AND THIS IN TURN SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE PROSPECTS FOR WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE WEAK WAVE/LOW SHOULD TRACK SEWD COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...POTENTIAL MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND/OR DRIER DOWNSLOPE AIR LIMITING STRONGER DESTABILIZATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The warm sector looks fairly clear, especially if some of the high cirrus from this morning's convection can erode, then DC Metro is sitting pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 When was the last time we had a 30 prob for hail around here? I don't think we have seen that in a while... I believe that is thanks to the EML plume nearby Hopefully this isn't another one of those that looks good and then falls apart in the afternoon scenarios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 When was the last time we had a 30 prob for hail around here? I don't think we have seen that in a while... I believe that is thanks to the EML plume nearby I believe that was the Mod Risk on June 13th last year. Parts of Carroll / Frederick / Howard counties got a wicked hail storm. We had 1.5" reports in a few locations. Link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20130613 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I think the SPC is trolling me. Guess they don't like SWVA because they took a big notch out of the slight risk in the Roanoke area. I think timing will be an issue down here though. Hi-Res modeling has storms beginning to die out as they move this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Those look like sups on those images you posted above Disc... where did you find those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 BTW, FWIW, 30% probs are the highest SLGT risk allows... 45 wind is MOD risk and 45% hail shaded is MOD risk as well http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_Prob_Conv_Otlk_Change_20060214.html to subtitle change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 yoda, on 21 May 2014 - 09:41 AM, said:Those look like sups on those images you posted above Disc... where did you find those? http://hazwx.com/ $10 a month and you get a ton of nice looking and easy to read model fields overlayed on Google Maps. They also have a fantastic mobile app that works flawlessly on my smartphone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 LWX launching an 18z balloon today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 21, 2014 Author Share Posted May 21, 2014 BTW, FWIW, 30% probs are the highest SLGT risk allows... 45 wind is MOD risk and 45% hail shaded is MOD risk as well http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_Prob_Conv_Otlk_Change_20060214.html to subtitle change I thought you'd like that lol - it would be fitting for Ian to miss some massive home grown storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I thought you'd like that lol - it would be fitting for Ian to miss some massive home grown storms. I think the reason why the hail prob is 30% is due to the EML nearby. 12z IAD sounding had ML Lapse Rates at 6.6 C/KM, which is decent around here ETA: Sun is out... I can see blue skies... looks like some decent clearing and heating is underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I thought you'd like that lol - it would be fitting for Ian to miss some massive home grown storms. Meh, he is in a prime spot for the 10% tor risk near Denver today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Decent clearing S and W of DCA as of 1030am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I thought you'd like that lol - it would be fitting for Ian to miss some massive home grown storms. Also, I said we'd get storms while they were gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 21, 2014 Author Share Posted May 21, 2014 Also, I said we'd get storms while they were gone I have a vague memory of getting nice storms while they were gone last year. Maybe I'm remembering wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I think the reason why the hail prob is 30% is due to the EML nearby. 12z IAD sounding had ML Lapse Rates at 6.6 C/KM, which is decent around here ETA: Sun is out... I can see blue skies... looks like some decent clearing and heating is underway Sun, huh? What's that? 61/59 with rain and THICK clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 21, 2014 Author Share Posted May 21, 2014 Sun, huh? What's that? 61/59 with rain and THICK clouds. Going to be a battleground. The boundary between strong heating and socked in clouds will probably aid in focusing good storms. You will probably end up on the losing end of storms today if that keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 They saw plenty of action last year. Maybe it was the previous year we had something half decent while they were gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Going to be a battleground. The boundary between strong heating and socked in clouds will probably aid in focusing good storms. You will probably end up on the losing end of storms today if that keeps up. I'm used to it lol. SPC correctly placed my area right on the edge of the slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 21, 2014 Author Share Posted May 21, 2014 Still really cloudy here in northern PG County in Maryland (Calverton, MD). Visible sat shows more clouds coming in too. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Still really cloudy here in northern PG County in Maryland (Calverton, MD). Visible sat shows more clouds coming in too. Meh Its like a fight down here in Fairfax... clouds for a lil while, then sun breaks through for a little, and repeat. MCD should be out in next hour or two IMO... as well as I expect SPC to keep 5/30/30 on the 1630 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 21, 2014 Author Share Posted May 21, 2014 Its like a fight down here in Fairfax... clouds for a lil while, then sun breaks through for a little, and repeat. MCD should be out in next hour or two IMO... as well as I expect SPC to keep 5/30/30 on the 1630 OTLK Maybe they'll trim north of the Potomac out of the 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I have a vague memory of getting nice storms while they were gone last year. Maybe I'm remembering wrong.Mall wedges incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Mall wedges incoming. Mapgirl said you guys were near Denver or in E CO? Maybe we both see good storms today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Clouds are breaking. Woo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 They be in Cheyenne right now. Beautiful part of the country. Mapgirl said you guys were near Denver or in E CO? Maybe we both see good storms today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Clouds are breaking. Woo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Mapgirl said you guys were near Denver or in E CO? Maybe we both see good storms today Heading that way, was in WY yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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