Ian Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Wall cloud a bit ago with cell west http://twitter.com/alexliggitt/status/467045981800771586/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 I saw that feature pass just to my west. Surface winds backed towards it as it approached, so there was inflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Pattern next week might be interesting with upper ridge over the gulf and the strong flow between troughs on either side. It's not your typical summer derecho pattern per se but it kinda has that look.. of course for now DC area north is kinda wedged in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Pattern next week might be interesting with upper ridge over the gulf and the strong flow between troughs on either side. It's not your typical summer derecho pattern per se but it kinda has that look.. of course for now DC area north is kinda wedged in. gfsNE_con_sbcape_141.gif Per the usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 So close. Feels like we always say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 EF0 confirmed early this morning near Middleburg 000NWUS51 KLWX 162206LSRLWXPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC605 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0331 AM TORNADO 3 E MIDDLEBURG 38.97N 77.69W05/16/2014 LOUDOUN VA NWS EMPLOYEERESULTS OF RADAR...STORM REPORTS AND A DAMAGE SURVEY BYNWS EMPLOYEES INDICATE TREE DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH ANEF0 TORNADO ALONG SALLY MILL ROAD AND LIGHT HORSE COURTEAST OF MIDDLEBURG VIRGINIA. LARGE TREES WERE FOUNDUPROOTED IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS ALONG WITH LARGEBRANCHES SNAPPED OR TWISTED.&&EVENT NUMBER LWX1400254$KWIDELSKI/CBARNES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 Maybe some NW flow fun Wednesday into Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 Maybe some NW flow fun Wednesday into Thursday? Wednesday gets some decent CAPE and Supercell Composite, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 18, 2014 Share Posted May 18, 2014 LWX made quick mention of MCS remnants making it into the northern part of the area early Wednesday morning in their long term disco this morning: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC404 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014 <...> TUE NGT INTO WED...SURFACE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ASA MORE MOIST RETURN FLOW ADVANCES ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT EARLYWED STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY FROM WEST CENTRAL MD...NRN VA...SE MD.SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ON JUST HOWFAST THIS WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. BEST BET IS BOUNDARY IS INPLACE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF CWA EARLY WED. THEN DURINGTHE AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WILL CROSSTHE REGION AND BRING HIGHEST THREAT OF PRECIP TO NORTH AND NEPORTIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS OVERTHE GREAT LAKES COULD SUPPORT MCS ACTIVITY. SO IT WOULD NOT BE OUTOF THE QUESTION TO SEE REMNANTS OF AN MCS IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONSOF THE CWA EARLY WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 19, 2014 Author Share Posted May 19, 2014 LWX made quick mention of MCS remnants making it into the northern part of the area early Wednesday morning in their long term disco this morning: Well if that's the case then...meh timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Well if that's the case then...meh timing Well its weakening by the time it gets here anyway... so maybe it will lay down some boundaries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I am liking Wed afternoon... should be our first good day this year for severe storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 12z GFS has decent soundings across the area Wed afternoon into evening... looks good for some storms with wind and hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Anyone remember the june 1, 2012 severe weather outbreak? if so, what time did it occur? The flow was really weak at 00Z but strenghtened by 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Anyone remember the june 1, 2012 severe weather outbreak? if so, what time did it occur? The flow was really weak at 00Z but strenghtened by 12Z.Started pretty early. Remember eating late breakfast in Amarillo as tor warnings were starting up in NW burbs. That was more of a classic pattern for a tornado event with a strong 500 low passing NE into the SE lakes. This looks more like a NW flow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Anyone remember the june 1, 2012 severe weather outbreak? if so, what time did it occur? The flow was really weak at 00Z but strenghtened by 12Z.Tornado watches were out by 2pm on 6/1, then extended at 8pm to go until 2am on 6/2First thunderstorm warning was issued at 1:50pm and tornado warning was issued at 2:14pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Thanks. I'm using it in my conference talk. Needed details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Started pretty early. Remember eating late breakfast in Amarillo as tor warnings were starting up in NW burbs. That was more of a classic pattern for a tornado event with a strong 500 low passing NE into the SE lakes. This looks more like a NW flow event. We might be able to sneak in a boundary left over from a MCS complex that begins over the Plains tomorrow evening... at least that is what I am hoping for. Don't most of our NW flow events have an MCS associated with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Thanks. I'm using it in my conference talk. Needed details. I went to spc for the watch information. Two watches were issued at first before extending both until 2am Iowa state has a database for warning and storm reports. Google: IEM local storm report app You put in data/time and it gives you all reports and warnings issues for the time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I went to spc for the watch information. Two watches were issued at first before extending both until 2am Iowa state has a database for warning and storm reports. Google: IEM local storm report app You put in data/time and it gives you all reports and warnings issues for the time period. That's pretty cool, thanks for that I will bookmark it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 That's pretty cool, thanks for that I will bookmark it No problem! I have to thank Ian for it, he sent it to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 19, 2014 Author Share Posted May 19, 2014 I went to spc for the watch information. Two watches were issued at first before extending both until 2am Iowa state has a database for warning and storm reports. Google: IEM local storm report app You put in data/time and it gives you all reports and warnings issues for the time period. Great sources Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Nice disco from SPC in their 1300z OTLK regarding poss QLCS/MCS development today and its movement... will be interesting to see what comes of it tonight. SPC did mention that there could be some severe hail/wind threat near OH/PA/WV border by daybreak tomorrow... isn't that usually good placement for us if we were to have severe storms in afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Nice disco from SPC in their 1300z OTLK regarding poss QLCS/MCS development today and its movement... will be interesting to see what comes of it tonight. SPC did mention that there could be some severe hail/wind threat near OH/PA/WV border by daybreak tomorrow... isn't that usually good placement for us if we were to have severe storms in afternoon? I mentioned something last night in the May obs thread (probably would have been better here) about how the 4km NAM may have been showing similar development. Some of the runs seem to want to affect D.C. down the shoot, but no guarantee of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Nice disco from SPC in their 1300z OTLK regarding poss QLCS/MCS development today and its movement... will be interesting to see what comes of it tonight. SPC did mention that there could be some severe hail/wind threat near OH/PA/WV border by daybreak tomorrow... isn't that usually good placement for us if we were to have severe storms in afternoon? That's earlier than what we'd otherwise consider optimal, and may lead to excess cloud debris. Frankly I hope the MCS dies over OH/WV leaving a boundary to trigger storms later during the day somewhere near Winchester/Hagerstown. The NW flow aloft should be sufficient to bring the action to DC later in the day if we can avoid MCS debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 12z GFS more enthused on the soundings for tomorrow afternoon than the 12z NAM is... as well as GFS is suggesting a decent hail threat with mid-level lapse rates of 6.5C/KM to 7C/KM early on when the storms are forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 SLGT risk for tomorrow for most of us, except for up near Mason-Dixon line and NE MD per 1730z OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 00z NAM soundings on Earl Barker at IAD for 21z to 00z tomorrow suggest chance of severe... and maybe a tor or two with 1k SRH near 150 m2/s2and 0-3km SRH near 270 m2/s2 00z GFS looks okay for tomorrow... slightly less robust when compared to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 0600 Day 1 OTLK: 2/15/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Is this the MCS that you guys have been mentioning the past few days? Seems like it's training into the area and will hang around for some time, I hope this doesn't steal our chances for storms later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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