H2O Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Well you know my thoughts locally Sweet. TORs for all!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Sweet. TORs for all!!! I will have my camera ready for the wedge TOR on the Mall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 I admit I am a bit surprised we have seen the sun today... I thought we would be socked in by clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 15, 2014 Author Share Posted May 15, 2014 I admit I am a bit surprised we have seen the sun today... I thought we would be socked in by clouds Here in Calverton, MD it's been pretty cloudy all morning so far. A few sunny breaks now but predominantly cloudy still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 STW coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Our first watch of the day SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 157NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1155 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED AREALBEMARLE AMELIA AMHERSTAPPOMATTOX AUGUSTA BRUNSWICKBUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CAROLINECHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD CLARKECULPEPER CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIEFAIRFAX FAUQUIER FLUVANNAFREDERICK GOOCHLAND GREENEGREENSVILLE HALIFAX HANOVERHENRICO LOUDOUN LOUISALUNENBURG MADISON MECKLENBURGNELSON NOTTOWAY ORANGEPAGE PITTSYLVANIA POWHATANPRINCE EDWARD PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCKROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIASTAFFORD WARREN MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED AREFREDERICK MONTGOMERY WASHINGTON WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBERKELEY HAMPSHIRE HARDYJEFFERSON MORGAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 DISCUSSION...A LINE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0157.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 a bit more sun to move through from the south near Richmond. Solid deck of overcast is still back in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 I'd be satisfied with a dozen good strikes and loud thunder. These kind of setups are never too exciting for most. The strong storms are typically really fast movers and only affect a really small area. I'm looking forward to the first hot / unstable day with discrete but prolific cells or a nasty line marching each at 40mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Is it just me, or is there some weak rotation down by Lexington? ETA: Bright sunshine outside right now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 15, 2014 Author Share Posted May 15, 2014 Line looking pretty healthy from what I can see on Radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Line looking pretty healthy from what I can see on Radarscope It looks decent... we had some nice sun before clouded up again... temps around 80 and DP's 65 and a good time of the day (maybe slightly earlier than we ideally want) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Starting to get some smaller cells out ahead of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Several consecutive runs of the HRRR show the line struggling to make it east of a north-south line bisecting DC, except for maybe in northern MD. The reason seems to be that it develops an area of substantial convective inhibition from DC to the east. I thought earlier that it was due to low-level cooling, but it's tough to tell with the 10 degree contour interval on the HRRR web page. It doesn't seem like a setup in which the line should fall apart as it hits the Potomac, but that model signal is tough to completely ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Starting to get some smaller cells out ahead of the main line. Small cell in SW FFX moving NNW, opposite of how the line itself is moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 15, 2014 Author Share Posted May 15, 2014 It looks decent... we had some nice sun before clouded up again... temps around 80 and DP's 65 and a good time of the day (maybe slightly earlier than we ideally want) It's still a ways off. Probably will be pretty close to ideal time of day by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 15, 2014 Author Share Posted May 15, 2014 Several consecutive runs of the HRRR show the line struggling to make it east of a north-south line bisecting DC, except for maybe in northern MD. The reason seems to be that it develops an area of substantial convective inhibition from DC to the east. I thought earlier that it was due to low-level cooling, but it's tough to tell with the 10 degree contour interval on the HRRR web page. It doesn't seem like a setup in which the line should fall apart as it hits the Potomac, but that model signal is tough to completely ignore. Does the RAP agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Watching that cell down in Tidewater VA area moving NW and strengthening nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 I'd be satisfied with a dozen good strikes and loud thunder. These kind of setups are never too exciting for most. The strong storms are typically really fast movers and only affect a really small area. I'm looking forward to the first hot / unstable day with discrete but prolific cells or a nasty line marching each at 40mph. So you've gone over to the dark side, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 FWIW the 12z ECMWF has the line holding together through DC. It's back to spitting out a maxima of 2.00" in under six hours just to the NW of DC. It also takes its sweet time getting to the region. Shouldn't make it to DC until late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Does the RAP agree? not really, although it's tough to evaluate a mesoscale feature at 13 km. It doesn't have the line per se, but it does have precip making it east of DC. It shows, however, that some precip should be falling east of DC by now, and that isn't the case. The RAP is on board with increasing CIN around dinner time. edit: I guess there are some cells forming east of DC, although they're well northeast of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 The main line appears to be decreasing in intensity. I still have sun IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 VILs starting to increase on the little cells near 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 15, 2014 Author Share Posted May 15, 2014 VILs starting to increase on the little cells near 95. Rotation in cell just SSW of DC? Looking at DCA TDWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Rotation in cell just SSW of DC? Looking at DCA TDWR Yeah, looks pretty broad and weak though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Token warning. Haven't even gusted to 10mph at home. Nice rain rates though. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC450 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CITY OF FAIRFAX IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF MANASSAS PARK IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...* UNTIL 530 PM EDT* AT 447 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR MONTCLAIR...OR NEAR DALE CITY...AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LAKE RIDGE... LORTON... BURKE... FAIRFAX... MANTUA... MERRIFIELD... CHANTILLY... OAKTON... VIENNA... TYSONS CORNER...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO ASTURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DOSO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Ah, now I see they are warning the cell headed toward Fairfax City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 What is the "rotation" is about to go over me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 In Crystal city about 3 mins ago, clouds moving from ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Lol at Jim Cantore calling "McLean" "McClean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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