needbiggerboat Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Looks like another train of moisture coming up from the SW over the next few hours. Will make PM rush interesting. I bet we get reports of stranded motorists and rescues via boat and hovercraft due to flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I can see into the future. Wouldn't be surprised to see a tor watch to our south and some cya tor warnings issued by either LWX or Wakefield. But for the immediate DC area, nothing exciting but pouring rains will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Pity warning. I lol'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Pity warning. I lol'ed. Called it last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I want to see Ian issue a pity tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Lots of lightning and thunder, very heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Do we get good thunderstorms anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Do we get good thunderstorms anymore? Maybe once every 4 years like good snow winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Mehdium risk Tuesday/Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Looks like we got SEE TEXT'ed. Majority of area in the 5% wind risk: "SHORT LINES/SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY FORM E OF THE MOUNTAINSOVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN AS SFC HEATING AND ASCENTWITH LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE OH VLY DESTABILIZE REGION.40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RELATIVELYSTEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEWSTORMS WITH DMGG WIND." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 0600 Day 1 OTLK from SPC has western portions of LWX CWA in SLGT risk for severe storms this afternoon... pretty much I-81 and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 LWX mentions risk for isolated tornadoes Thurs afternoom into Friday morning for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 over/under 4 token tor warnings later this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 over/under 4 token tor warnings later this week? Under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 LWX mentions risk for isolated tornadoes Thurs afternoom into Friday morning for the area High shear low cape. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Prob won't last or be out much longer, but clouds and sun this morning on way to work 06z NAM has decent forecast soundings from early afternoon into evening... though I am not sure I buy 1500 J/KG SBCAPE during the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Based on latest vis, we should have partly sunny skies for a few hours. Maybe til lunch time. Looks like there's an area of broken clouds moving in from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Ian, Mark and JT (wxmeddler) leave tomorrow for a two week chasecation, plan for severe weather while they are gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Ian, Mark and JT (wxmeddler) leave tomorrow for a two week chasecation, plan for severe weather while they are gone Perhaps we can use today as a good sendoff for them... meh warnings to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 The severe and heavy rains almost always end up East of the models. I think the 6z gfs is picking up on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL/TORNADO HODOGRAPH CONDITIONAL ON INSTABILITY. http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1405151229.acus11.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 yoda, on 15 May 2014 - 08:51 AM, said:yoda, on 15 May 2014 - 08:51 AM, said: QuoteRNK SOUNDING SHOWED A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL/TORNADO HODOGRAPH CONDITIONAL ON INSTABILITY. http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1405151229.acus11.html Nice. I've been watching the storms this morning and haven't seen much rotation. Everything is linear so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 1300z SPC OTLK includes more of us in SLGT risk... 5% hail/15% wind/5% tor... 10% TOR in south central VA south of CHO by ~80 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 The storms impacting DC at this time period came from the S and SW direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 72/64 at IAD at 10am.. while DCA is at 74/67. Winds are from the south at both airports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 The latest HRRR runs show a nice line of convection approaching the western burbs later this afternoon, but it really craps out as it tries to move east across DC and towards the east side of town. It seems that the model quickly cools the low levels by early evening, and this results in a quick increase in CIN. It would seem to me like this is an environment in which rapid cooling would not take place around sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 RAP wants to give Central/Northern MD, DC, and Nova a decent amount of rain this afternoon with light rain continuing through early tonight. GFS/NAM want none of this. Anyways about severe, I still think there is a chance, if we get sun, were ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Well you know my thoughts locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Dew Point really climbing around Fredericksburg.........currently its 76 with DP of 70.......Tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 0-6km shear is a bit weak (~30kts), but 18z soundings at IAD and DCA look decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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