yoda Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Tuesday looks super meh for storms... still don't see much for any storms in the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 SO far this has been the season with the lowest number of tornadoes on record and the D+11 pattern is pretty bad. Ian, are you getting worried about your annual chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 SO far this has been the season with the lowest number of tornadoes on record and the D+11 pattern is pretty bad. Ian, are you getting worried about your annual chase? Ha, just posted about the same sorta in the other thread. I'm always worried at this point. We've sorta been in a "drought" for 2-3 years now when it comes to tornadoes it seems. Not to mention the actual drought in the western Plains has expanded lately again. Part of me would rather not see it super active to start May though as patterns don't tend to last for a whole month. The good thing about late May into early June is it's pretty hard to get no storms then. But this is looking a bit like the 80s wrt shear across the US etc. This weekend is looking like a good show.. probably jam packed with chasers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Not super worried at this point, we have almost a month to sort things through. The AO looks to stay negative which is good, and even if we get a zonal pattern we can still crank out a mountain lee low and have some WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Ha, just posted about the same sorta in the other thread. I'm always worried at this point. We've sorta been in a "drought" for 2-3 years now when it comes to tornadoes it seems. Not to mention the actual drought in the western Plains has expanded lately again. Part of me would rather not see it super active to start May though as patterns don't tend to last for a whole month. The good thing about late May into early June is it's pretty hard to get no storms then. But this is looking a bit like the 80s wrt shear across the US etc. This weekend is looking like a good show.. probably jam packed with chasers though. Weekend does look pretty good though you know me, I don't look that closely now days unless it impacts this area or impacts some of my FLorida friends summer homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 18z GFS looked pretty interesting for DC and east. High pwat values, looks like a heavy rain and thunderstorm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Both Tue and Wed look pretty interesting on the 18z GFS. Winds are fairly unidirectional around here by Wed with the way the trough evolves. Tue as is on the GFS might have some tornado threat locally depending on warm front location etc. Low is a bit displaced but shear is plentiful. Wed has pretty high CAPE and strong shear so it might be a line segment type of day. The Euro is like another world with moisture and storm evolution around here. It keeps us kind of wedged in the whole time. Eh, I'll root for the 18z GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Both Tue and Wed look pretty interesting on the 18z GFS. Winds are fairly unidirectional around here by Wed with the way the trough evolves. Tue as is on the GFS might have some tornado threat locally depending on warm front location etc. Low is a bit displaced but shear is plentiful. Wed has pretty high CAPE and strong shear so it might be a line segment type of day. The Euro is like another world with moisture and storm evolution around here. It keeps us kind of wedged in the whole time. Eh, I'll root for the 18z GFS lol. If it is going to rain, let it be interesting. No hope for severe IMBY, but maybe something for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 sneaky isolated svr storms down by EZF today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Meh... 1630 OTLK has northern edge of SLGT risk touching SE zones of LWX CWA... I wouldn't mind a storm up here if we can get one... 10% hatched TOR included in 1630 OTLK for SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 LWX mentions risk of severe in their afternoon AFD THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY FROM SOUTH TONORTH. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA DURINGTHIS TIME...CAUSING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH ANINCREASING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OFINSTABILITY. MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THERE ISALSO A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SINCE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BEQUITE FAVORABLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FORISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHERTHREATS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THECWA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST.THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO OURAREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAYEVENING...AND IT MAY LINGER INTO OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NEAR AND EASTOF INTERSTATE 95. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLYWEDNESDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Forbes gives us a TorCon# of 5 for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Forbes gives us a TorCon# of 5 for Wednesday. Interesting... I don't remember a number that high for us in quite a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 SLGT risk for most of us on Wed... 30% contour not that far away from us, as its in the southern part of the LWX CWA... potential for damaging winds and tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 The outline for the new 6z Day 1 outlook has to be off or the wind/hail boundaries are off. Slight risk up to Charles County and central Shenandoah Valley with just 5% hail and 5% wind contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Anyone chasing down in NC later today/tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Afternoon disco from LWX as of 2:16 PM: THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY FROM SOUTH TONORTH. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA DURINGTHIS TIME...CAUSING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALONG WITH ANINCREASING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A SHEAR VECTOR NEARLYPARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MEANS THATBANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAIN OVER ONE ANOTHER.PWATS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WITHTRAINING CONVECTION THERE WILL BE AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL INA SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGHWEDNESDAY.THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARYLAYER...ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SHEARPROFILES WILL BE VERY STRONG...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SEVEREWEATHER. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATEDTORNADOES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE FROM WESTERNMARYLAND AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRALVIRGINIA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MARYLAND..SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURSWEDNESDAY...EXPANDING NORTH INTO MARYLAND AS THE WARM FRONT ANDUNSTABLE AIR EXPAND NORTHWARD VIA A 40-KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET.LARGE...LOOPING HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FORROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARYLAYER COULD POSE A TORNADO RISK TOMORROW EVENING GIVEN MEAN ANDRIGHT-MOVING STORM MOTION VECTORS LARGELY PARALLEL TO 0-1 KMVORTICITY VECTOR. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY HELICITY VALUES OF 300TO 500 M2/S2 IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSSTHE POTOMAC RIVER DURING THE EVENING. THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS RISKWILL BE MODULATED BY HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING OCCURS DURING THEAFTERNOON...BUT MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST SREF INDICATEMLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG /HIGHEST SOUTH/ WHICH SHOULD BESUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AND AMODERATELY FORCED SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT.SHEAR PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATINGUPDRAFTS LATER IN THE EVENING...AND INCREASING STABILITY WITH THEONSET OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE OVERTURNINGWILL RESULT IN A DECREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THEOVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE PARENT COLD FRONT IS A SLOW-MOVER...AND ASSUCH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMSCONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHTESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. FOR MORE ON THEFLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT...PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Afternoon disco from LWX as of 2:16 PM: meh...picked a fine day to go to Williamsburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Looks like we might be on the battle line tomorrow afternoon... 12z NAM def gives us higher SBCAPE/MLCAPE then the 12z GFS does per Earl Barker... warm front will probably be nearby all afternoon Hodographs are pretty decent and curved in an upside down bell shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Looks like we might be on the battle line tomorrow afternoon... 12z NAM def gives us higher SBCAPE/MLCAPE then the 12z GFS does per Earl Barker... warm front will probably be nearby all afternoon Hodographs are pretty decent and curved in an upside down bell shape HODO... r Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 HODO... r Are you asking something or....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Are you asking something or....? not a game of thrones fan, are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 not a game of thrones fan, are you? Oh I have only seen a few episodes... my fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Oh I have only seen a few shows.. my fault no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 Well I guess I picked a good time to finally upgrade my computer from GR2Analyst 1.xx to 2.x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 Lots of the parameters tomorrow really do seem to hug the Potomac River. Seems as expected best odds at severe will be south of the river...will be interesting to see how far north things can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Problem is most models rain all day. So.. I wouldn't get too excited. Shear is good but need some luck. HI res do have some semblance of isolated cells late into the evening or night tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 Locally run LWX ARW model for tomorrow at 20z. At least it's something...all eyes will be on warm front progress tomorrow I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Eh, long range RAP but it's fun to look at.. KROA: KDCA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 Probably a pretty meh day for DC area. Will be interested in how everything evolves to the south. I guess biggest story remains the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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