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2014 Mid-Atlantic Severe Discussion Thread


Kmlwx

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Looks like some severe potential on Saturday for the region and possibly south into the Carolinas on the 12z GFS. Remnant EML looks to try to overspread the region ahead of the s/w and associated surface low.

Tricky setup but it keeps showing up at least. 12z looks decent but 18z has the airmass more polluted and the boundary draped way south. The soundings and hodos right near the warm front around the MD/PA border on 12z look quite interesting though.  There's a sleeper tornado threat in there if things came together right for sure.

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0z gfs looks solid at 500 at this pt.. but warm frontal boundary draped way south again. SE Va sounding right on the nose of CAPE. It's a weird day because it looks surprisingly good tornadowise for so early but it has some issues that could mess it all up.

post-1615-0-87519500-1395808447_thumb.gi

post-1615-0-46705300-1395808455_thumb.gi

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I think it is looking good for this range. I'm not buying the SLP being that weak with the amount of H5 forcing going on. Play the warm front and see what it gives. Of course, with the divergence being that strong (if true) clouds and popcorn clutter could ruin it. Worth a keeping an eye on it.

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A general local storm viewing question......are there any favored locales for viewing storms in the greater DC metro area? Im in a heavily wooded, elevation free area, so storm viewing isn't the greatest. Would love a spot I could use for pics on days when I have some free time or after work.

New Windsor in Carroll County is a great spot.  You can watch the storms over the Frederick Valley roll off from Thurmont and cross the entirety of Frederick County.

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lol.. gfs has totally morphed to a super wedge and a low well south with possible conversational flakes on the back end.

Meh - Oh well. At this point let's just make the summer 100 degree heat and 70 dewpoints last for as little time as possible. I hate heat but love storms :P

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A random 2% for tornado was put over us on 1630z OTLK

 

      There is a little overlap in the 12z NAM between the very high helicity along and north of the warm front and some sfc-based cape, so while it's a long shot that we see anything svr (or even tornadic), it's probably not completely crazy to put very, very low probs in the vicinity of where the warm front sets up later today.

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The shear profiles aren't bad but the sfc doesn't overlap that very well. Some models don't even really give us much at all though given the line looks moderately like something out west so seems  like the NAM might be out to lunch on specifics there. I agreed more with their previous outlooks, tho nowhere looks great for much.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

GFS:

 

post-1615-0-04848600-1397874064_thumb.gi

 

Euro - flat trough punching in behind the spark:

 

post-1615-0-99957000-1397874247_thumb.pn

 

Not sure what the moisture situation will be after the goon low and since it's still winter here forever.

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