Bob Chill Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I've found that the tops of garages, especially Metro garages are great places for watching and photographing storms. Definitely. Top of Shady Grove metro garage (the new one) is over 60' tall. You can see above all the trees and wide open view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Looks like some severe potential on Saturday for the region and possibly south into the Carolinas on the 12z GFS. Remnant EML looks to try to overspread the region ahead of the s/w and associated surface low. Tricky setup but it keeps showing up at least. 12z looks decent but 18z has the airmass more polluted and the boundary draped way south. The soundings and hodos right near the warm front around the MD/PA border on 12z look quite interesting though. There's a sleeper tornado threat in there if things came together right for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 0z gfs looks solid at 500 at this pt.. but warm frontal boundary draped way south again. SE Va sounding right on the nose of CAPE. It's a weird day because it looks surprisingly good tornadowise for so early but it has some issues that could mess it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Looking at the Euro now too.. think I'm in. Climo says it will be south perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I didn't look that close at 12z gfs. It was tasty. This is just SW of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I think it is looking good for this range. I'm not buying the SLP being that weak with the amount of H5 forcing going on. Play the warm front and see what it gives. Of course, with the divergence being that strong (if true) clouds and popcorn clutter could ruin it. Worth a keeping an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 A general local storm viewing question......are there any favored locales for viewing storms in the greater DC metro area? Im in a heavily wooded, elevation free area, so storm viewing isn't the greatest. Would love a spot I could use for pics on days when I have some free time or after work. New Windsor in Carroll County is a great spot. You can watch the storms over the Frederick Valley roll off from Thurmont and cross the entirety of Frederick County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 Euro went south with the sfc low and GFS still south. Sadly it's still foreverwinter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 SREF's way out there but some signal there on 3z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 lol.. gfs has totally morphed to a super wedge and a low well south with possible conversational flakes on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 lol.. gfs has totally morphed to a super wedge and a low well south with possible conversational flakes on the back end. Meh - Oh well. At this point let's just make the summer 100 degree heat and 70 dewpoints last for as little time as possible. I hate heat but love storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 I'm looking for warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 26, 2014 Share Posted March 26, 2014 lol.. gfs has totally morphed to a super wedge and a low well south with possible conversational flakes on the back end.. Toss it. We need Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 I fell into the CFS wormhole and found happiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 Meh risk for storms tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 A random 2% for tornado was put over us on 1630z OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 I'm playing disc golf this afternoon near columbia. Will the showers and tornadoes hold off till after 6pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Rather active night yesterday in the central part of the country. Some of those cells looked pretty good. Haven't seen anything this morning about damage near Poplar Bluff, but they appeared to be under the gun from multiple storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Wooooooo showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Thats a bit odd. The disco doesnt even mention a tor threat, just winds. Even that I'm skeptical about. ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 A random 2% for tornado was put over us on 1630z OTLK There is a little overlap in the 12z NAM between the very high helicity along and north of the warm front and some sfc-based cape, so while it's a long shot that we see anything svr (or even tornadic), it's probably not completely crazy to put very, very low probs in the vicinity of where the warm front sets up later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 The shear profiles aren't bad but the sfc doesn't overlap that very well. Some models don't even really give us much at all though given the line looks moderately like something out west so seems like the NAM might be out to lunch on specifics there. I agreed more with their previous outlooks, tho nowhere looks great for much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Mid lvl lapse rates are good, shear is ok along wrm front. Need instability. Not very enthused. Showers with gusts to 40 perhaps? ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Lower Eastern Shore looks to have the best combination of surface instability and wind shear. The warm front is being decimated by these Easterly winds. it has been pretty much locked over SW VA for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 Some storms would be nice... sometime soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Would love to see another June 2006 event. EDIT: with one day of discrete low topped supercells mixed in for the lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 Tuesday looks kinda good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 19, 2014 Share Posted April 19, 2014 GFS: Euro - flat trough punching in behind the spark: Not sure what the moisture situation will be after the goon low and since it's still winter here forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 Not sure this looks great but it's still something. Shear is on the fence for svr as are other variables but seems we might get some storms at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 21, 2014 Author Share Posted April 21, 2014 I just reactivated my AllisonHouse subscription for the year. Ready for some excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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