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2014 Mid-Atlantic Severe Discussion Thread


Kmlwx

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
145 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

MDZ004>007-009>011-VAZ042-122345-
FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-LOUDOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...LEESBURG
145 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...ISOLATED STRONG WINDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

$$

DH

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 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NC...MUCH OF VA...MD...EXTREME SERN PA...DE
mcd0180.gif
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 122021Z - 122215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
   WITH SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE RISES NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLS
   AHEAD. WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAK...RELATIVELY GREATER INSTABILITY
   EXISTS ACROSS NC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. HERE...LATEST RADAR
   TRENDS ARE SHOWING STRONGER ECHOES SUGGESTING AN UPTREND IS
   POSSIBLE. THIS WARMER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO VA AND AS THE
   COLD FRONT CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MAY
   SOLIDIFY FURTHER AND POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW-TOPPED
   NATURE OF THE CELLS SUGGESTS LITTLE HAIL THREAT...WHILE PRESSURE
   FIELDS AS WELL AS MEAN WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 03/12/2014


 

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Not sure it's worth a watch at this pt but maybe for cya purposes. Risk east of 95 is minimal IMO and the storms exit into the bay around 7.

Eta: haven't looked as close further south maybe worth it down there

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