Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Seems like a pretty ominous setup so far. On the warm side of a 969 mb low in Canada. ( Friday afternoon ) Not your typical February weather. Highs could reach 60. 120 knot winds up at 300mb. Mount holly already discussing : FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITHPOTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA 45 MPH GUSTS AND IF THUNDER...POTENTIAL FOR SVR IN NJ/DE WITH 60 TO 70 KT OF WIND FROM 850-700MB. CLEARING LATE. MLCAPE RIGHT NOW IS MODELED UNDER 300J...MAINLY DELAWARE.A QUESTION THIS DAY WILL BE WHAT TIME THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE.AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGIONFRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT THIS TIMING WILL MEAN FOR THE REGIONSWEATHER IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE MAX TEMPERATUREGRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE 40SLEHIGH VALLEY NORTHWARD THROUGH NW NJ AND THE POCONOS TO THE 60SIN SOUTHERN DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 That's what we've been missing this winter...a severe weather threat! I guess we'll have to see how this threat evolves over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised to see the area in slight risk soon. Upton - .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RAIN AND FOG EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THENORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE WEST...SWEEPINGACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEINSTABILITY INCREASES...AND AN 50-70KT 850MB FLOW WILL MOVETHROUGH...AIDING IN THE INSTABILITY AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION. Mount Holly - THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR WESTERN AREASAROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WE EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITHTHE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS, TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THEAREA THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THERE ISNOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH TIME FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE PLACE,AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA,THERE MAY STILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOEITHER MAINTAIN THEMSELVES, OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL TOTALSARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 50-55, K-INDEX APPROACHES 30, AND LI`S GETCLOSE TO 0 OR -1. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO QUITE STRONG WITH925-850 MB WINDS 50-60 KNOTS, SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THEPOTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE LINE OFSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL IS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ANDURBAN/POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING AS PW VALUES APPROACH 1-1.25INCHES. THE SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESSTHROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND BE OFF THE COAST BY MID-LATEAFTERNOON. A RATHER WARM DAY FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTEDTO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONTALBOUNDARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised to see the area in slight risk soon. There is a slight risk area for southern New Jersey, Delaware on southwestward. That was issued in the Day 3 Outlook early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The latest SPC Day 2 Outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 ^ close. Looks like the Flood Watch was issued mostly for quick melting of snow / and complicated ice-flow conditions. We're lucky this is mostly a low QPF event. .HYDROLOGY...THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES...RAIN...RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND WIND...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SNOWMELT RATE ONFRIDAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL INCREASE RUNOFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERSTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. NWS HYDROLOGIC MODELS SUGGEST THISRUNOFF MAY CAUSE NUMEROUS STREAMS AND RIVERS TO APPROACH OR EXCEEDFLOOD STAGE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING IS GENERALLY LOCATEDIN AREAS WITH THE MOST SNOW ON THE GROUND...NAMELY SOUTHEASTERNPENNSYLVANIA...NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHWESTERN NEWJERSEY...AND EXTREME NORTHERN DELAWARE. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THEMIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER, IT WAS DECIDED A FLOOD WATCHWOULD BE PRUDENT BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS. INADDITION, INCREASED STREAMFLOW COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURESSHOULD BREAK UP AND MOVE RIVER ICE...WHICH IN TURN POSES THEADDITIONAL THREAT FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. AND IF THIS WASN`TENOUGH...CLOGGED DRAINS AND CULVERTS POSE THE THREAT FOR STREET ANDPOOR DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAIN.BASIN-WIDE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVEWITH BASINWIDE AVERAGES ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, ALTHOUGH LOCALLYHIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. SUCH A SMALL QPF WOULD NOT NORMALLYCAUSE TOO MUCH CONCERN FOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...WARM, MOIST AIRBLOWING OVER A RIPE SNOWPACK ON GUSTY WINDS CAN QUICKLY EAT AWAY ATA SNOWPACK WITH SIGNIFICANT RESULTANT RUNOFF. WE ARE NOT, HOWEVER,EXPECTING A REPEAT OF JANUARY 1996 OR APRIL 2005.RIVERS AND STREAMS NEED TO BE MONITORED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKENDFOR THE COMBINED THREAT OF RISING WATER AND MOVING ICE, BOTH OFWHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING. IF THE DELAWARE RIVER DID NOT CONTAINICE...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG THAT WATERWAY WOULD BEMINIMAL FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...THE DELAWARE RIVER DOES CONTAINICE, AND ONCE IT STARTS TO MOVE, FLOODING IS ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY.RESIDENTS NEED TO STAY ABREAST OF CHANGING CONDITIONS AND BEPREPARED SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Red Box for PHI: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0026.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Squall line coming. Can't get the radar loop to work on nws site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Dark to NW with distant thunder - 53F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 get ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 get ready It is going to be interesting watching the peas soup fog get swept out by thundershowers this next hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 This is the first time I can recall a tornado watch with this much snow on the ground. Certainly would be an interesting debris swirl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It is going to be interesting watching the peas soup fog get swept out by thundershowers this next hour It left here between 11 am and noon - up to 55F now. Sky is darkening to the west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 This is the first time I can recall a tornado watch with this much snow on the ground. Certainly would be an interesting debris swirl... Snownados! coming soon on sci fi channel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 garden variety so far - a little wind and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Got a new one here BFB- Blowing fog banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Thank you for the radar QT. Line is moving fast... Had a 1 minute downpour. No wind to report @ the office in West Chester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Some nice lightning and loud thunder with the heavy rain in Spring Mount, PA for the past 7 or 8 minutes. Temp is 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Over a dozen lightning strikes one very close hit moderate downpour and still thick fog 44F About as good a thunderstorm as any i saw in 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Likely over 30 strikes here locally, on radar looks like Perkasie got hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Windy post storm, fog vanished in minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Strong gustry winds with second round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackhound Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm in West Chester and the sky just opened up. Pouring, driving rain with an increase in wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Windy post storm, fog vanished in minutes Yup, and temp jumped 6 degrees to 51 within a few minutes of the fog vanishing. Back down to 50 degrees now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The temp seems to be topped out at 50.0, but the lightening strikes aren't making the idea of venturing outside all that welcoming. M Other than that, light rain and light wind. The more severe lines seem to be going just to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Just rain here in Hopewell Township, NJ Mercer County so far. No wind whatsoever. Very calm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Snownados! coming soon on sci fi channel... How about a White Tornado (Ajax) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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