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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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I'm not sure if sitting in the bullseye 9 days out is a good thing or not. Matter of fact I know its not a good thing.

Did the euro still show the PV dropping into the northeast US or was that just a 1 or 2 run prog we saw yesterday?

Wouldnt worry about this heading too far inland if thats what your getting at. The PV means business and i would be more concerned with suppression that anything else. This storm im not going to look at seriously till monday, as they're are also other players on the field ( monday/wednesday ) that could hurt or help this big weekend storms chances. However, the EURO consistently showing this as a big system for a several runs now does raise an eyebrow and also that it is a southern stream phased event that it does notoriously better than the GFS does as well is comforting....for now. However, im excersizing patience till monday as we'll be around 144 hours and "should" have a better idea as to what the weekday storms will do downstream for weekend ramifications. ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND FOLKS GOING TO BE A CRAZY WEEK WITH SNOWSTORM TRACKING STARTING MONDAY!

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The storm in the medium range looks interesting and for now I think it's the one we should focus on. Getting attached to a storm threat post 200 hours, however legit the set up may be, is always a poor idea.

That northern stream energy looks really energetic for midweek and it's within 5 days or so.

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My philosophy has and always will be to only look at the storm in front of you. You never want to wish away one storm in sake of another- (weenie sin). Let's say you had your way, hypothetical of course, the first storm weakens or disappears- then for some reason the weekend blockbuster gets shunted out to sea. My point is, I hope the mid-week storm is the "big one". If not, I hope the weekend threat is. :snowwindow:

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Seeing the Euro sniff this one out so early in this type of pattern is exciting. We'll need to at least make it through the weekend and inside of seven days to begin taking it seriously.

Yea included that in my post and the EURO is consistently a leader in sniffing out and handling southern stream events. Me and you both agree getting through the weekend and to monday is prudent then we'll be in range for the mid week and weekend storm to be taken more seriously.

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My main concern is the mid week storm hitting us and then hurting the potentially much bigger storm on the weekend. Too far off i know but it is something that is in the back of my mind through next week for the weekend storm paul

You`re assumption that a Day 9 storm seen on an OP run  really exists  yet . You can`t approach meteorology hoping that 2 SLP one Mon and one Wed  just disappear so it doesn't rob the bigger one .

Northern branch features on arctic waves with a NEG EPO this year  have blossomed late for us . So they come first .  Everyone here would love to see the Day 9 op come to fruition , but there are some solutions in front of it that need to be solved first .

If its seen 5 days by the Ensembles  , then it  will come  . Don't worry about Day 9 - Think Day 4 and Day 6 first .

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The storm in the medium range looks interesting and for now I think it's the one we should focus on. Getting attached to a storm threat post 200 hours, however legit the set up may be, is always a poor idea.

That northern stream energy looks really energetic for midweek and it's within 5 days or so.

 

I think we can recognize that the pattern may be more supportive for threats in the longer term. But at the same time, not overlook or throw away threats in shorter-term.

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The storm in the medium range looks interesting and for now I think it's the one we should focus on. Getting attached to a storm threat post 200 hours, however legit the set up may be, is always a poor idea.

That northern stream energy looks really energetic for midweek and it's within 5 days or so.

I didn`t even see this before I posted . Agree man .

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You`re assumption that a Day 9 storm seen on an OP run really exists yet . You can`t approach meteorology hoping that 2 SLP one Mon and one Wed just disappear so it doesn't rob the bigger one .

Northern branch features on arctic waves with a NEG EPO this year have blossomed late for us . So they come first . Everyone here would love to see the Day 9 op come to fruition , but there are some solutions in front of it that need to be solved first .

If its seen 5 days by the Ensembles , then it will come . Don't worry about Day 9 - Think Day 4 and Day 6 first .

Im sorry paul what i meant was the thursday system we had last week hurt the weekend storm somewhat after it or was it due more to the kicker in lakes? Also would a wound up storm cause a less conducive baroclonic zone for a storm a few days later? That is what i was trying to get at.

Also i am not putting any stock into the weekend storm just merely throwing scenarios out that would affect it downstream "should" it come to fruition at all. The mid week and monday threats come first was just trying to touch on the weekend POTENTIAL

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I think we can recognize that the pattern may be more supportive for threats in the longer term. But at the same time, not overlook or throw away threats in shorter-term.

Yeah I agree for the most part. At this point the really long range storms are about pattern recognition. Too many people tend to get caught up in actual model solutions and specifics. What's important is that we have the pieces in place to support a storm.

But with so many other disturbances in the flow prior to it, it's a low probability occurrence, still. The domino effect of each perturbation within the flow on the next system behind it can't be understated.

So that's why I think we're all better off turning our attention to that initial wave. As modeled right now it looks like it could potentially be a great setup for coastal locations.

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Im sorry paul what i meant was the thursday system we had last week hurt the weekend storm somewhat after it or was it due more to the kicker in lakes? Also would a wound up storm cause a less conducive baroclonic zone for a storm a few days later? That is what i was trying to get at.

Also i am not putting any stock into the weekend storm just merely throwing scenarios out that would affect it downstream "should" it come to fruition at all. The mid week and monday threats come first was just trying to touch on the weekend POTENTIAL

The coastal locales tend to be favored with these systems. Sometimes , not all the time but when it comes to Arctic waves the further east one is the better they do.

Pos pna combined with a connected height field and the PV pressing and relaxing you're begging for a slp on the EC .

I M O you will prob see something pop up inside 3 days like we saw in jan

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One day at a time yesterday is history tomorrow a mystery. see ya                                                                                                                                                                           


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Agree with EL here, I could care less what the models show verbatim 8-10 days out, will definately change from current progs and most likely be no storm or a set-up completely different than currently depicted (although great to see the pattern). 

 

The Sun/Mon small frontal wave and Wed coastal storm is what should be watched currently...

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Agree with EL here, I could care less what the models show verbatim 8-10 days out, will definately change from current progs and most likely be no storm or a set-up completely different than currently depicted (although great to see the pattern).

The Sun/Mon small frontal wave and Wed coastal storm is what should be watched currently...

Agree 100% the weekend storm at this moment is just the purest eye candy and that is all at this point. Once to sunday/monday a clear picture should be available to the monday/wednesday threats before we turn out attention to what may or may not be the weekend threat. Just being with the gf this weekend and lll look at the models come sunday night

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I'd say it's a perfect time to blast it on Facebook and Twitter. Maybe you can be the "first" to sniff this out.

Yea right?! I would be banned for eternity here for giving meteorology a bad name. Thats why i said "verbatim" 200+ hrs out because thats all that is just a model run interpretation that is pure eye candy. Besides wont be long before some kid does post something on FB/twitter about next weekends "historical" blizzard :lol:

JB or DT will beat me to it and maybe beat the crap out of themselves if it fails miserably

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Yea right?! I would be banned for eternity here for giving meteorology a bad name. Thats why i said "verbatim" 200+ hrs out because thats all that is just a model run interpretation that is pure eye candy. Besides wont be long before some kid does post something on FB/twitter about next weekends "historical" blizzard :lol:

JB or DT will beat me to it and maybe beat the crap out of themselves if it fails miserably

 

Right on Que, DT delivers... 

 

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/-winter-i-thought-you-was-dead-not-hardly/650056688374926

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EURO 0Z Tot. Sn. indicates 20" from E.PA, all of NJ, NYC and along coast to Maine, on 2/28-03/01 and the GFS just shows very cold and no storm at all in these areas. Polar vortex on top of us w/o high lat., upper level blocking on the GFS I guess is the reason. Comments?

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EURO 0Z Tot. Sn. indicates 20" from E.PA, all of NJ, NYC and along coast to Maine, on 2/28-03/01 and the GFS just shows very cold and no storm at all in these areas. Polar vortex on top of us w/o high lat., upper level blocking on the GFS I guess is the reason. Comments?

For southern stream events the EURO is typically the most consistent accurate model to use. Its consistently had this threat the past several runs and it will dissapear like all models do in a few days whether or not it appears in all its entirety is up in the air. Lets get through the weekend and monday threat before we start looking at the weekend. The N/S stream events go with the GFS, the EURO is typically too dry and underamplified for what the pattern should yield

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For southern stream events the EURO is typically the most consistent accurate model to use. Its consistently had this threat the past several runs and it will dissapear like all models do in a few days whether or not it appears in all its entirety is up in the air. Lets get through the weekend and monday threat before we start looking at the weekend. The N/S stream events go with the GFS, the EURO is typically too dry and underamplified for what the pattern should yield

Honest, genuine question: has anybody actually verified the validity of this sentiment? It's become something of a meme on the board lately, and usually I idly accept blanket statements about model performance, seeing as I'm not well-versed in NWP tendencies. That said, I think the Euro out-performed most other pieces of guidance on Tuesday's clipper-redeveloper, and I haven't stumbled across any real literature on northern stream/southern stream verification scores amongst globals. I do agree that if I had to have just one model harping on a threat, I'd want it to be the Euro... I'm just not sure I agree on the reason for why that is.

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Upton regarding next week

 

A DYNAMIC PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE IN THE LONG TERM COVERING THE PERIOD OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY RETURNING THE REGION TO A WINTER TIME PATTERN.

ON A LARGE SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STAYS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REMAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK IN OUR REGION BUT TOWARDS THE WEST WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGING AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH
CONTINUED RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS IS FURTHER CONVEYED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE OUTLOOKS REGARDING THE PNA...WHICH SHOW A STRONG POSITIVE TREND TOWARDS THE END OF FEBRUARY AND A MEAN SIGNAL WITH THE AO CONVEYING A NEGATIVE TREND FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME.

THIS WILL ULTIMATELY MEAN A GRADUAL COLDER TREND TO TEMPERATURES IN
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. IN ADDITION...BY MID NEXT WEEK...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE

SNOW.

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