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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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It will be interesting to see exactly how cold NYC will verify later this month to determine how low

of a monthly temperature it can finish with. The current -4.9 is already among the coldest

monthly departures of the 2000's so far.

 

March 2014..............-4.9 to date

January 2014............-4.0

December 2010........-4.5

January 2009............-4.1

February 2007..........-6.3

January 2004............-7.3

February 2003...........-4.5

January 2003............-4.6

December 2000.........-5.5

July 2000.................-4.5

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GFS 06z at H5 looks absolutely outstanding from Days 4-6. The building ensemble support for a cutoff low in the Northeast Pacific means there is also increasing likelihood of a PNA ridge spike out west, however brief it is. We will have to figure out details of timing with individual perturbations but the current idea on forecast models is that there is potential for significant amplification east of the MS River. The GEFS are all over it.

 

f180.gif

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total monthly and annual minimums 32 or lower at KNYC...

year.........Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan...Feb...Mar...Apr...Total

2013-14......0.......9.....19.....24.....21.....19..............92 as of 3/27

2012-13......0.......3.......8.....18.....17.....14.......0.....60

2011-12......0.......0.....10.....13.....10.......4.......0.....37

2010-11......0.......0.....25.....28.....19.....11.......0.....83

 

2009-10......0.......0.....17.....22.....22.......2.......0.....63

2008-09......0.......6.....19.....30.....20.....11.......0.....86

2007-08......0.......3.....14.....20.....18.......7.......0.....62

2006-07......0.......0.......6.....18.....24.....11.......4.....63

2005-06......0.......5.....20.....10.....18.....14.......0.....67

2004-05......0.......5.....15.....17.....20.....14.......0.....71

2003-04......0.......1.....17.....26.....21.....10.......3.....78

2002-03......0.......3.....18.....28.....21.....13.......3.....86

2001-02......0.......0.......9.....11.....15.......9.......3.....47

2000-01......0.......6.....29.....23.....18.....13.......0.....89

 

1999-00......0.......1.....10.....22.....18.......4.......1.....56

1998-99......0.......0.......8.....20.....13.....11.......0.....52

1997-98......0.......8.....10.....13.......9.......9.......0.....49

1996-97......0.......8.......7.....25.....14.....12.......3.....69

1995-96......0.......8.....24.....24.....18.....15.......0.....89

1994-95......0.......3.....10.....19.....20.......5.......3.....60

1993-94......0.......3.....15.....29.....24.....13.......0.....84

1992-93......0.......5.....13.....21.....27.....14.......0.....80

1991-92......0.......2.....15.....19.....15.....16.......1.....68

1990-91......0.......2.....11.....20.....14.......6.......1.....54

 

1989-90......0.......9.....31.....10.....15.......9.......0.....74

1988-89......1.......1.....19.....16.....21.....13.......0.....71

1987-88......0.......5.......9.....24.....23.....11.......0.....72

1986-87......0.......6.....10.....23.....23.....11.......1.....74

1985-86......0.......0.....23.....21.....21.......9.......0.....74

1984-85......0.......5.......6.....28.....18.....10.......2.....69

1983-84......0.......1.....17.....26.....10.....13.......0.....67

1982-83......0.......4.....10.....18.....14.......7.......0.....53

1981-82......0.......2.....15.....26.....20.......9.......5.....77

1980-81......0.......2.....24.....27.....14.....12.......0.....79

 

1979-80......0.......1.....12.....22.....24.....10.......1.....70

1978-79......0.......3.....15.....20.....21.......8.......1.....68

1977-78......0.......4.....15.....27.....27.....13.......1.....87

1976-77......2.....11.....25.....31.....17.......7.......3.....96

1975-76......1.......0.....21.....30.....14.......8.......2.....76

1974-75......3.......7.....12.....16.....16.....15.......6.....75

1973-74......0.......2.....16.....20.....24.....12.......2.....76

1972-73......1.......7.......9.....17.....21.......3.......0.....57

1971-72......0.......5.....12.....18.....23.....16.......4.....78

1970-71......0.......4.....21.....29.....12.....12.......0.....78

 

1969-70......2.......5.....24.....30.....21.....14.......1.....97

1968-69......0.......1.....22.....22.....21.....15.......1.....82

1967-68......0.......9.....14.....24.....26.....13.......1.....87

1966-67......0.......2.....22.....19.....25.....16.......3.....86

1965-66......1.......3.....10.....22.....21.....10.......0.....67

1964-65......0.......4.....18.....28.....19.......9.......1.....79

1963-64......0.......0.....22.....16.....25.......9.......3.....75

1962-63......0.......4.....22.....23.....25.......8.......0.....82

1961-62......0.......5.....20.....24.....22.......7.......0.....78

1960-61......0.......3.....26.....27.....14.......8.......0.....78

 

1959-60......0.......6.....12.....24.....20.....26.......0.....88

1958-59......0.......3.....28.....24.....21.....17.......0.....93

1957-58......0.......3.......9.....21.....22.......3.......1.....59

1956-57......0.......7.....12.....26.....19.......9.......0.....73

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It's looking like we will see a repeat of the recent pattern the next few days of a milder spring

day today getting into the 60's followed by possible record cold Monday for places like

JFK where the record low is 25 set in 1977.

 

3/24

25 in 1977

27 in 1992

28 in 2009+

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It's looking like we will see a repeat of the recent pattern the next few days of a milder spring

day today getting into the 60's followed by possible record cold Monday for places like

JFK where the record low is 25 set in 1977.

 

3/24

25 in 1977

27 in 1992

28 in 2009+

Already down to 22 here....JFK looks to have broken the record it's at 24

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Already down to 22 here....JFK looks to have broken the record it's at 24

 

The record at NYC going back to 1888 was just too cold to beat, but JFK and LGA

were able to beat records set in the 50's and 70's with a shorter observation period.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

0843 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY

TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 25 SET IN 1977.

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

841 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014

....RECORD DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY

TODAY...

A RECORD DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 22 WAS SET TODAY AT 8:06 AM

AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 24 SET IN 1956.

 

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