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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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Even though the EURO kind of lost this storm, my god at the 240hr threat, one of the most beautiful maps I've ever seen. I'd be shocked if we don't cash in somehow.

Bar none best pattern this year. We've delivered on lesser patterns so with this one if we can get all the stars to align we'll have a winter that we will be telling to our kids just like my dad does with 77' & 78'. This pattern if it comes to fruition has the recipe to produce another march 01' that may actually not screw us either, and if that happen 95-95' snowfall record would be toast area for sure

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This is new snow , not depth . 75 miles South and that`s how you end winter

Whats encouraging paul is this pattern is something you would see and say this has the potential to deliver something big to the EC in the form of a snowstorm and this is something we havent seen this winter. Furthermore, we've made our livelyhood this winter on less than favorable setups and with a pattern like this that has the POTENTIAL to deliver us to 95-95' levels it is fairly exciting

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Whats encouraging paul is this pattern is something you would see and say this has the potential to deliver something big to the EC in the form of a snowstorm and this is something we havent seen this winter. Furthermore, we've made our livelyhood this winter on less than favorable setups and with a pattern like this that has the POTENTIAL to deliver us to 95-95' levels it is fairly exciting

Even if we don't get the big one, if we're cold for 2-3 weeks, we'll get some snow chances, just like we've had all winter...and many of those were not on models more than 3 or 4 days.

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I think we have two windows of opportunity to put something together here. The first is next week ahead of the Arctic front,

and the second would be when the PV retreats back north the first week of March. Obviously, we are still outside

the details range. But the players are on the board for something good if things can come together.

 

Strongly agree with the latter threat. This time of year, it's a little more difficult to snow in a setup like this...but the guidance at this range has a really strong signal for Pac energy to move into the western US and then eject east/northeastward. Much will depend on the positioning of the confluence and the depth of the cold air. But right now a pretty good signal on both the ECMWF and GFS Ensemble means for a break in the mean mid level height field indicating a modeled trough and energy on several ensembles. You can spot it in the southwest US here:

 

f276.gif

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Strongly agree with the latter threat. This time of year, it's a little more difficult to snow in a setup like this...but the guidance at this range has a really strong signal for Pac energy to move into the western US and then eject east/northeastward. Much will depend on the positioning of the confluence and the depth of the cold air. But right now a pretty good signal on both the ECMWF and GFS Ensemble means for a break in the mean mid level height field indicating a modeled trough and energy on several ensembles. You can spot it in the southwest US here:

 

f276.gif

 

The pattern progression is similar to what we saw before Jan 21st. It's very possible the few threats wind up being suppressed by the PV pressing south. But as the PV retrogrades and split flow develops our chances of winter storms will probably increase in early March. The main question will be if keep enough confluence, that they aren't too warm or north for us. Some Greenland/Davis Strait blocking would help. But I suspect, given the trend so far this winter, will be depending more on a stronger PV for more confluence.

 

I should also note there is more ridging over Western Canada/Alaska than we had earlier this month. That would support stronger confluence.

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The pattern progression is similar to what we saw before Jan 21st. It's very possible the few threats wind up being suppressed by the PV pressing south. But as the PV retrogrades and split flow develops our chances of winter storms will probably increase in early March. The main question will be if keep enough confluence, that they aren't too warm or north for us. Some Greenland/Davis Strait blocking would help. But I suspect, given the trend so far this winter, will be depending more on a stronger PV for more confluence.

 

I should also note there is more ridging over Western Canada/Alaska than we had earlier this month. That would support stronger confluence.

 

A few years ago in March, the Carolinas got a massive snowstorm (I think 12-14" was recorded in the Charlotte area).  I wonder if that is in the cards again this year.

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2001 taught me to never depend on a major snowstorm in early March. Have we ever even gotten a 12"+ storm in March?

See uncle W's list of the 10"+ monthly totals for March, along with the biggest single events in those months: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41911-winter-2013-2014-banter-thread/?p=2812333

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I think we're at least 7 days if not longer away from seeing something materialize. As others have pointed out, our window will open as the PV retreats.

Totally agree yanks. This pattern when the PV relaxes and we can get some west based -NAO and +PNA coupled with a LP with GOM moisture we could get something quite big on the EC snow wise. But for the beginning next week cold and maybe some shots at some snow but no big wound up storms due to the suppression that the PV will put on the the NE, save for a thread the needle event

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Yes.

 

March 16-17, 1843: Nearly 2 feet

March 20-22, 1868: 1 foot or more

March 12-14, 1888: 21.0"

March 15-16, 1896: 12.0"

March 1-2, 1914: 14.5"

March 7-8, 1941: 18.1"

March 3-4, 1960: 14.5"

Check out how closely the opening 5 days in 1960 were 

post-7472-0-63575800-1392831939_thumb.pn

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Sorry part 2

Very similar departures from average. The big question here is the storm chances and can we make a run at the hollowed ground of 95'-96' seasonal snowfall totals. The cold looks like it wont be in short supply now we need the table to be set for some nice size snowstorms for the EC to finish winter off with a bang

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Very similar departures from average. The big question here is the storm chances and can we make a run at the hollowed ground of 95'-96' seasonal snowfall totals. The cold looks like it wont be in short supply now we need the table to be set for some nice size snowstorms for the EC to finish winter off with a ban

Don`t care if we reach 95- 96 . I am looking for a 2 week pattern similar to early Dec but against  higher departures . We will need the  PV to  retrograde once into the east and open the east coast up for amplification .

This is gona come with low level cold air and arctic waves favor the coast . Would love for the ensembles to start seeing LP on the east coast then we go from there .Dont worry about records  get the cold , then bring the snow , add it up in the end .  

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from last March...last March KNYC got 7.3" of snow...coldest period was the 14th-23rd with 3.3" of snow...4" fell on the 8th...

This is the best we can see in March for a ten day period...some of these years had a great third week of March...1960 was the best of the lot...1956 was second and 1967 third...1993 and 1958 round out my top five...

March 1956...1958...1960...1967...1978...1984...1992...1993...1996...2005...

1956..............................................

dates...max min precip snow depth

16.........33...21...0.90"...6.2"...6"

17.........33...20...0.05"...0.5"...3"

18.........30...21...0.38"...3.8"...7"

19.........26...23...0.78"...7.8".13"

20.........38...23......0........0...13"

21.........48...28......0........0.....8"

22.........50...31......0........0.....6"

23.........48...36......0........0.....1"

24.........43...24...0.11"...1.2"...1"

25.........34...18......0........0.....1"

1958...............................................

13.........46...34......T........T.....0

14.........36...33...0.48"...4.1"...4"

15.........41...35......T........T.....2"

16.........43...35......0........0.....1"

17.........45...34......0........0.....T

18.........42...35......T........T......0

19.........39...34...0.02".....T.....0

20.........35...33...0.90"...4.7"...5"

21.........35...31...0.71"...7.1"..11"

22.........45...34......T........T...10"

1960..................................................

01.........32...21......0........0.....0

02.........36...19......0........0.....0

03.........27...18...0.89" 12.5". 12"

04.........29...19...0.19"...2.0", 15"

05.........33...21...0.01"...0.1". 14"

06.........36...20......0........0....12"

07.........31...17......T......0.2"...8"

08.........30...19...0.01"...0.1"...5"

09.........34...17......0........0.....3"

10.........30...17......0........0.....2"

1967...........................................................

15.........45...29...0.39"...1.8"...2"

16.........32...21...0.14"...0.8"...2"

17.........26...13...0.28"...3.0"...3"

18.........20...10......0........0.....3"

19.........28.....8......0........0.....2"

20.........40...23......0........0.....1"

21.........35...31...0.14"...0.8"...1"

22.........32...29...0.78"...9.0"...9"

23.........35...28......T........T.....6"

24.........44...30......0........0.....3"

1978..........................................................................

01.........32...25......0........0.....3"

02.........32...19......0........0.....3"

03.........29...24...0.64"...5.0"...8"

04.........30...19......0........0.....6"

05.........28...14......0........0.....4"

06.........33...18......0........0.....3"

07.........37...20......0........0.....3"

08.........30...22......T........T.....3"

09.........43...29......T........T.....3"

10.........43...36......0........0.....2"

1984.............................................................................

04.........40...24......0........0.....0

05.........43...33...0.71"...0.3"...0

06.........44...37......0........0.....0

07.........40...24......0........0.....0

08.........30...18...0.10"...1.8"...2"

09.........32...16...0.29"...5.1"...7"

10.........30...13......0........0.....5"

11.........40...19......T........T.....3"

12.........30...16......0........0.....1"

13.........35...24...2.31"...1.4"...1"

1992.........................................................................

14.........40...24......0........0.....0

15.........35...22......0........0.....0

16.........37...17......0........0.....0

17.........50...29......T........T.....0

18.........45...31...0.09".....T.....0

19.........33...31...0.93"...6.2"...3"

20.........45...30......0........0.....6"

21.........39...28......0........0.....T

22.........35...25...0.44"...3.2"...T

23.........38...29......T........T.....3"

1993...............................................................................

10.........40...32...0.60"...0.3"...0

11.........41...30......0........0.....0

12.........42...29......0........0.....0

13.........40...28...2.37" 10.2". 2"

14.........39...17...0.15"...0.4"...8"

15.........33...14......0........0.....7"

16.........45...26......0........0.....4"

17.........47...25...0.75"...0.8"...2"

18.........29...13......T........T.....2"

19.........33...16......0........0.....2"

1996...........................................................................

01.........34...22......0........0.....0

02.........35...29...0.33"...4.6"...4"

03.........35...21...0.01".....T......2"

04.........35...19......0........0.....1"

05.........61...32...0.22".....0.....0

06.........50...34...0.51".....0.....0

07.........34...23...0.81".....T.....0

08.........24...14...0.28"...4.5"...4"

09.........24...11......0........0.....3"

10.........33...16......0........0.....2"

2005...................................................

01.........42...30...0.29"...2.9"...9"

02.........39...28......T........T.....6"

03.........33...23......0........0.....5"

04.........36...23......0........0.....4"

05.........42...27......0........0.....4"

06.........48...31......0........0.....3"

07.........63...43......0........0.....2"

08.........57...18...0.32"...1.5"...1"

09.........31...16......0........0.....1"

10.........34...21......0........0.....T

................................................................................

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