REDMK6GLI Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Even though the EURO kind of lost this storm, my god at the 240hr threat, one of the most beautiful maps I've ever seen. I'd be shocked if we don't cash in somehow. Bar none best pattern this year. We've delivered on lesser patterns so with this one if we can get all the stars to align we'll have a winter that we will be telling to our kids just like my dad does with 77' & 78'. This pattern if it comes to fruition has the recipe to produce another march 01' that may actually not screw us either, and if that happen 95-95' snowfall record would be toast area for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 This is new snow , not depth . 75 miles South and that`s how you end winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 With the amount of cold air available with the PV, the shift 75 miles south is feasible, the storm next week actually might be supressed, but we will see if that trough goes NEG with the PV moving into the 50/50 position like 1/3 and 1/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 This is new snow , not depth . 75 miles South and that`s how you end winter Whats encouraging paul is this pattern is something you would see and say this has the potential to deliver something big to the EC in the form of a snowstorm and this is something we havent seen this winter. Furthermore, we've made our livelyhood this winter on less than favorable setups and with a pattern like this that has the POTENTIAL to deliver us to 95-95' levels it is fairly exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 With the amount of cold air available with the PV, the shift 75 miles south is feasible, the storm next week actually might be supressed, but we will see if that trough goes NEG with the PV moving into the 50/50 position like 1/3 and 1/21 Thats total snow so its probably a combination of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Whats encouraging paul is this pattern is something you would see and say this has the potential to deliver something big to the EC in the form of a snowstorm and this is something we havent seen this winter. Furthermore, we've made our livelyhood this winter on less than favorable setups and with a pattern like this that has the POTENTIAL to deliver us to 95-95' levels it is fairly exciting Even if we don't get the big one, if we're cold for 2-3 weeks, we'll get some snow chances, just like we've had all winter...and many of those were not on models more than 3 or 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 First chance at snow would be Sunday Night/Monday as a wave on the front. The GFS has had this off and on to varying degrees well see if we can get something there to usher in the really cold air beginning Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Awesome discussion in this thread. Next week into the first week of March (potentially starting late this upcoming Sunday) look tremendous for cold/snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I think we have two windows of opportunity to put something together here. The first is next week ahead of the Arctic front, and the second would be when the PV retreats back north the first week of March. Obviously, we are still outside the details range. But the players are on the board for something good if things can come together. Strongly agree with the latter threat. This time of year, it's a little more difficult to snow in a setup like this...but the guidance at this range has a really strong signal for Pac energy to move into the western US and then eject east/northeastward. Much will depend on the positioning of the confluence and the depth of the cold air. But right now a pretty good signal on both the ECMWF and GFS Ensemble means for a break in the mean mid level height field indicating a modeled trough and energy on several ensembles. You can spot it in the southwest US here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 This is new snow , not depth . 75 miles South and that`s how you end winter Just wait till this ends up on FB - and it will eventually - run for the hills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Strongly agree with the latter threat. This time of year, it's a little more difficult to snow in a setup like this...but the guidance at this range has a really strong signal for Pac energy to move into the western US and then eject east/northeastward. Much will depend on the positioning of the confluence and the depth of the cold air. But right now a pretty good signal on both the ECMWF and GFS Ensemble means for a break in the mean mid level height field indicating a modeled trough and energy on several ensembles. You can spot it in the southwest US here: The pattern progression is similar to what we saw before Jan 21st. It's very possible the few threats wind up being suppressed by the PV pressing south. But as the PV retrogrades and split flow develops our chances of winter storms will probably increase in early March. The main question will be if keep enough confluence, that they aren't too warm or north for us. Some Greenland/Davis Strait blocking would help. But I suspect, given the trend so far this winter, will be depending more on a stronger PV for more confluence. I should also note there is more ridging over Western Canada/Alaska than we had earlier this month. That would support stronger confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Just wait till this ends up on FB - and it will eventually - run for the hills! I expect it too ha . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The pattern progression is similar to what we saw before Jan 21st. It's very possible the few threats wind up being suppressed by the PV pressing south. But as the PV retrogrades and split flow develops our chances of winter storms will probably increase in early March. The main question will be if keep enough confluence, that they aren't too warm or north for us. Some Greenland/Davis Strait blocking would help. But I suspect, given the trend so far this winter, will be depending more on a stronger PV for more confluence. I should also note there is more ridging over Western Canada/Alaska than we had earlier this month. That would support stronger confluence. A few years ago in March, the Carolinas got a massive snowstorm (I think 12-14" was recorded in the Charlotte area). I wonder if that is in the cards again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 2001 taught me to never depend on a major snowstorm in early March. Have we ever even gotten a 12"+ storm in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 2001 taught me to never depend on a major snowstorm in early March. Have we ever even gotten a 12"+ storm in March? See uncle W's list of the 10"+ monthly totals for March, along with the biggest single events in those months: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41911-winter-2013-2014-banter-thread/?p=2812333 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 12z GFS drops the PV, trending colder every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 2001 taught me to never depend on a major snowstorm in early March. Have we ever even gotten a 12"+ storm in March? Yes. March 16-17, 1843: Nearly 2 feet March 20-22, 1868: 1 foot or more March 12-14, 1888: 21.0" March 15-16, 1896: 12.0" March 1-2, 1914: 14.5" March 7-8, 1941: 18.1" March 3-4, 1960: 14.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I think we're at least 7 days if not longer away from seeing something materialize. As others have pointed out, our window will open as the PV retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I think we're at least 7 days if not longer away from seeing something materialize. As others have pointed out, our window will open as the PV retreats. Or before it completely takes over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I think we're at least 7 days if not longer away from seeing something materialize. As others have pointed out, our window will open as the PV retreats. Totally agree yanks. This pattern when the PV relaxes and we can get some west based -NAO and +PNA coupled with a LP with GOM moisture we could get something quite big on the EC snow wise. But for the beginning next week cold and maybe some shots at some snow but no big wound up storms due to the suppression that the PV will put on the the NE, save for a thread the needle event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 We've done well with snows on arctic waves so we could see a nice storm before the PV comes fully south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Yes. March 16-17, 1843: Nearly 2 feet March 20-22, 1868: 1 foot or more March 12-14, 1888: 21.0" March 15-16, 1896: 12.0" March 1-2, 1914: 14.5" March 7-8, 1941: 18.1" March 3-4, 1960: 14.5" 93'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 93'? That was I believe about 10" of snow and sleet in NYC. Just northwest was 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Yes. March 16-17, 1843: Nearly 2 feet March 20-22, 1868: 1 foot or more March 12-14, 1888: 21.0" March 15-16, 1896: 12.0" March 1-2, 1914: 14.5" March 7-8, 1941: 18.1" March 3-4, 1960: 14.5" Check out how closely the opening 5 days in 1960 were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Sorry part 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Sorry part 2 Very similar departures from average. The big question here is the storm chances and can we make a run at the hollowed ground of 95'-96' seasonal snowfall totals. The cold looks like it wont be in short supply now we need the table to be set for some nice size snowstorms for the EC to finish winter off with a bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 eyes wide open http://aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/ http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Very similar departures from average. The big question here is the storm chances and can we make a run at the hollowed ground of 95'-96' seasonal snowfall totals. The cold looks like it wont be in short supply now we need the table to be set for some nice size snowstorms for the EC to finish winter off with a ban Don`t care if we reach 95- 96 . I am looking for a 2 week pattern similar to early Dec but against higher departures . We will need the PV to retrograde once into the east and open the east coast up for amplification . This is gona come with low level cold air and arctic waves favor the coast . Would love for the ensembles to start seeing LP on the east coast then we go from there .Dont worry about records get the cold , then bring the snow , add it up in the end . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 from last March...last March KNYC got 7.3" of snow...coldest period was the 14th-23rd with 3.3" of snow...4" fell on the 8th... This is the best we can see in March for a ten day period...some of these years had a great third week of March...1960 was the best of the lot...1956 was second and 1967 third...1993 and 1958 round out my top five... March 1956...1958...1960...1967...1978...1984...1992...1993...1996...2005... 1956.............................................. dates...max min precip snow depth 16.........33...21...0.90"...6.2"...6" 17.........33...20...0.05"...0.5"...3" 18.........30...21...0.38"...3.8"...7" 19.........26...23...0.78"...7.8".13" 20.........38...23......0........0...13" 21.........48...28......0........0.....8" 22.........50...31......0........0.....6" 23.........48...36......0........0.....1" 24.........43...24...0.11"...1.2"...1" 25.........34...18......0........0.....1" 1958............................................... 13.........46...34......T........T.....0 14.........36...33...0.48"...4.1"...4" 15.........41...35......T........T.....2" 16.........43...35......0........0.....1" 17.........45...34......0........0.....T 18.........42...35......T........T......0 19.........39...34...0.02".....T.....0 20.........35...33...0.90"...4.7"...5" 21.........35...31...0.71"...7.1"..11" 22.........45...34......T........T...10" 1960.................................................. 01.........32...21......0........0.....0 02.........36...19......0........0.....0 03.........27...18...0.89" 12.5". 12" 04.........29...19...0.19"...2.0", 15" 05.........33...21...0.01"...0.1". 14" 06.........36...20......0........0....12" 07.........31...17......T......0.2"...8" 08.........30...19...0.01"...0.1"...5" 09.........34...17......0........0.....3" 10.........30...17......0........0.....2" 1967........................................................... 15.........45...29...0.39"...1.8"...2" 16.........32...21...0.14"...0.8"...2" 17.........26...13...0.28"...3.0"...3" 18.........20...10......0........0.....3" 19.........28.....8......0........0.....2" 20.........40...23......0........0.....1" 21.........35...31...0.14"...0.8"...1" 22.........32...29...0.78"...9.0"...9" 23.........35...28......T........T.....6" 24.........44...30......0........0.....3" 1978.......................................................................... 01.........32...25......0........0.....3" 02.........32...19......0........0.....3" 03.........29...24...0.64"...5.0"...8" 04.........30...19......0........0.....6" 05.........28...14......0........0.....4" 06.........33...18......0........0.....3" 07.........37...20......0........0.....3" 08.........30...22......T........T.....3" 09.........43...29......T........T.....3" 10.........43...36......0........0.....2" 1984............................................................................. 04.........40...24......0........0.....0 05.........43...33...0.71"...0.3"...0 06.........44...37......0........0.....0 07.........40...24......0........0.....0 08.........30...18...0.10"...1.8"...2" 09.........32...16...0.29"...5.1"...7" 10.........30...13......0........0.....5" 11.........40...19......T........T.....3" 12.........30...16......0........0.....1" 13.........35...24...2.31"...1.4"...1" 1992......................................................................... 14.........40...24......0........0.....0 15.........35...22......0........0.....0 16.........37...17......0........0.....0 17.........50...29......T........T.....0 18.........45...31...0.09".....T.....0 19.........33...31...0.93"...6.2"...3" 20.........45...30......0........0.....6" 21.........39...28......0........0.....T 22.........35...25...0.44"...3.2"...T 23.........38...29......T........T.....3" 1993............................................................................... 10.........40...32...0.60"...0.3"...0 11.........41...30......0........0.....0 12.........42...29......0........0.....0 13.........40...28...2.37" 10.2". 2" 14.........39...17...0.15"...0.4"...8" 15.........33...14......0........0.....7" 16.........45...26......0........0.....4" 17.........47...25...0.75"...0.8"...2" 18.........29...13......T........T.....2" 19.........33...16......0........0.....2" 1996........................................................................... 01.........34...22......0........0.....0 02.........35...29...0.33"...4.6"...4" 03.........35...21...0.01".....T......2" 04.........35...19......0........0.....1" 05.........61...32...0.22".....0.....0 06.........50...34...0.51".....0.....0 07.........34...23...0.81".....T.....0 08.........24...14...0.28"...4.5"...4" 09.........24...11......0........0.....3" 10.........33...16......0........0.....2" 2005................................................... 01.........42...30...0.29"...2.9"...9" 02.........39...28......T........T.....6" 03.........33...23......0........0.....5" 04.........36...23......0........0.....4" 05.........42...27......0........0.....4" 06.........48...31......0........0.....3" 07.........63...43......0........0.....2" 08.........57...18...0.32"...1.5"...1" 09.........31...16......0........0.....1" 10.........34...21......0........0.....T ................................................................................ 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donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 93'? 10.6" in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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