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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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Well, the Euro op today took a step towards a bigger storm for the middle of next week. Just need the energy to dig more.

 

Bigger storm doesn't necessarily mean snow or rain. Just a higher end QPF event.

Tries to get a miller b going. A little too late for our area. The pattern on the Euro is insane. A lot of cold and more chances of wintry precip.

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I like how the long range guidance is subtlety hinting at a storm chance for the middle of next week rather than showing a big storm now that will surely dissipate over time. Will continue to monitor the ensembles and the teleconnections as we move forward. Seems low probability that we escape this season without at least one dynamic coastal low pressure system.

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Ughh, nothing worse than cold and dry as we approach April.   If its not going to snow then it may as well be spring like.  

Well mild and damp is pretty common in early Spring in this region of the country. I would suspect that we'll switch to this pattern as the PV begins to lift out.

 

A - PNA should allow the SE ridge to pump up some and drag the storm track back further northwest. This is well agreed upon by the ECMWF, GFS and the ensemble means.

 

pna.sprd2.gif

 

On another note....

 

Today's MJO forecast calls for a propagation back through phase 1 and if that happens we should see another PNA spike around the tail end of the forecast period.

 

ensplume_full.gif

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Wow, insane cold being forecast for days 8-10 on the Euro. That EPO ridge over northern Alaska and the cutoff low south of it would mean a huge infusion of cold from the Arctic. Cross polar flow is extremely unusual at the end of March.

But it can't happen, haven't you looked at the calendar? The statistical odds of that happening are near zero, blah, blah, blah

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But it can't happen, haven't you looked at the calendar? The statistical odds of that happening are near zero, blah, blah, blah

 

To be fair though, 2m temperatures would not be as cold in late March vs. January with that same 850 mb temperature forecast by the Euro. The increased solar radiation and lack of a plant canopy will also likely modify that airmass somewhat before it reaches the northeast. This effect is often under-represented by models, especially at longer lead times where these errors tend to accumulate.

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Outside of the 70 on Dec 22 , and a week here and there of above normal. This is one of the more consistent wire to wire cold winter periods of Dec 1st to April 1st I've seen in a while.

 

It's going to be the first January and February under 32.0 at NYC followed by March under 40 since 1978.

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It going to be the first January and February under 32.0 at NYC followed by March under 40 since 1978.

Impressive stretch. Not exactly wire to wire. But as close as you could have hoped for if u like cold and snow on the coastal plain.

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I saw some historical data for this area (NYC-Brookhaven Labs) that shows record second-half of March 850mb.'s (since 1949) are -27C to -23C. Anyone know what 2M temps. resulted from this? Almanac has two extant record lows in the period of: 8degs. on 3/19/67 and 20degs. on 3/26/60. Get UNCLEW to work on this!

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Will the growing season be delayed a bit? There have been many years where budding or even some flowers began to bloom around this time. The super warm March of 2012 comes to mind.

eh, the real meat of the growing season doesn't begin until later april and may
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Yea I know the good growth is later on but at least the initial budding phase or early growth we usually see by late March early April could be delayed?

Planting tends to begin in mid March if I'm not mistaken.

Very few annual crops/flowers are planted outside in March around here. Tree budding is variable anyway so while leaf-out may take a couple extra weeks, it won't have any major impact on growth the rest of the year.

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:yikes:

jij0cy.jpg

Ok but u DO realize average for today is 50 F so we could be 45-48 and this forcast would still verify as correct? so this doesnt suggest a continuation of winter per se. Simply put, till PV shoves off north we will have a chillier than normal spring ( once it starts)

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Ok but u DO realize average for today is 50 F so we could be 45-48 and this forcast would still verify as correct? so this doesnt suggest a continuation of winter per se. Simply put, till PV shoves off north we will have a chillier than normal spring ( once it starts)

I've noticed the greater the probability of above or below, the greater the departures. You can also look at the 500 mb charts and you'll see it won't just be a few degrees below normal. This is a highly anomalous pattern being forecast and averages climb into the mid 50s by then while we may be stuck in the 30s during the day with even teens at night (far from typical).

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Ok but u DO realize average for today is 50 F so we could be 45-48 and this forcast would still verify as correct? so this doesnt suggest a continuation of winter per se. Simply put, till PV shoves off north we will have a chillier than normal spring ( once it starts)

 While technically true, there is definitely a correlation between greater projected temperature departures and higher probabilities  of departure. Basically if the forecast were for slightly below normal temperatures knowing what the standard error in temperature modeling the probabilities for below normal departure would be modest. When you see probabilities as high as the above image you can be assured that the expectation is for far below normal temperatures.

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The projected temperature departures coincidence well with the CFSv2 from a few weeks back that PB generously posted. It's had a good string of approximate temps I believe.

The cfsv2 did well this winter. But the JMA weeklies just crushed it all year. It's 500 mb pattern recognition for the entire season was remarkable IMO.

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I saw some historical data for this area (NYC-Brookhaven Labs) that shows record second-half of March 850mb.'s (since 1949) are -27C to -23C. Anyone know what 2M temps. resulted from this? Almanac has two extant record lows in the period of: 8degs. on 3/19/67 and 20degs. on 3/26/60. Get UNCLEW to work on this!

the max for the 18th was 20 in during the afternoon...I was to young in 1960 to remember...it looked like steam rising from the ground in the wet spots as the snow melted in the Sunlight...8 degrees the next morning and a max of 28 the next afternoon...9" of snow on the 22nd capped a great ending to that winter...The cold continued along with brief but potent warm ups into June...Memorial Day weekend had a cold rainy day with a max of 44...It even snowed up north...

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