MJO812 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Well then we are assured it won't happen. This weekend used to be the traditional start of winter flounder season. Back when we had winter flounder. It meant winter was over and break the fishing rods out. Used to be a flotilla of boats at Sheepshead bay. most are gone now. A lot of the boats were damaged from Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 A lot of the boats were damaged from Sandy. Yeah but most were gone due to lack of fish. Sandy just made it worse on the remaining fleet. If you can even call it a fleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 We have 8 months of warm temps coming up. We do? Can you please tell me when it's going to start? At this rate, and based on the long term model talk I'm seeing in here, it's not starting till oh..Mother's day? Sent from my SCH-I545 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 We do? Can you please tell me when it's going to start? At this rate, and based on the long term model talk I'm seeing in here, it's not starting till oh..Mother's day? Sent from my SCH-I545 I read the same stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 The 24 at NYC is the first reading below 25 on St.Patrick's Day since 1994. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/holidays/stpatricksdaywx.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 3/17 6Z GFS is downright depressing if anyone has any hopes of seeing more than a day of Springtime temps in next 2 weeks. Cold .. Cold .. Cold. Regardless Happy St Pats to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Coldest st patty's since 94... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I've been hearing this, but the more scientific consensus is that mass food shortages and famine are the more likely result. there are a couple interesting books by historian Brian Fagan, The Little Ice Age and The Long Summer, which examine the historical effects of warm and cold periods over those centuries. Fagan is not the liveliest writer ( his nemesis is Mark Kurlansky, author of Cod and Salt, because he is not a professional historian, but sells a lot more books...)but he is scholarly. Fish on Fridays, which examines the history of this tradition ( it had nothing to do with religion ) was his attempt to cash in on the success of Cod.... As someone who has been looking at wx models for 10+ years, I think I understand this. I had just heard it showed some insane solution so out of curiosity I wanted to see it. Regardless of a storm or not, the models are showing a fairly strong cold blast (relative to time of year) in the 8-10 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 You know what's amazing? The GFS and Euro have a storm at day 9 (March 25th) that's currently suppressed because the PV is still too far south. BTW, 19/50 00z ECWMF ensemble members had significant precipitation over the area days 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 You know what's amazing? The GFS and Euro have a storm at day 9 (March 25th) that's currently suppressed because the PV is still too far south. BTW, 19/50 00z ECWMF ensemble members had significant precipitation over the area days 8-10. The GGEM also shows a storm just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The GGEM also shows a storm just offshore. The 00z GGEM ensemble mean was further SE than the op. It's going to take this getting inside of five days before most people will even consider this a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Spring Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Spring Fail Until the PV retreats it's going to be a cold start. April 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Until the PV retreats it's going to be a cold start. April 96? Quite possible. Maybe some Met and Yankee games getting postponed due to the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Quite possible. Maybe some Met and Yankee games getting postponed due to the cold. The Yankees played opening day 96' during a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The Yankees played opening day 96' during a snowstorm. I remember this . They always replay this game on the Yes network. Just like you said, until the PV retreats, no one should be exxpecting warmer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I remember this . They always replay this game on the Yes network. Just like you said, until the PV retreats, no one should be exxpecting warmer weather. The pattern over the Pacific at day 7 has me somewhat intrigued. This will ultimately dictate whether or not we have a storm chance early next week. The GFS has been consistently developing a cut off low south of Alaska and that's helping to pump up the western ridge and amplify the pattern. 06z 00z 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The approaching MJO phase change should abruptly turn the pattern warm at some point in early April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The yankees were snowed out for a week after the 4/6/1982 blizzard... http://www.nytimes.com/1982/04/07/sports/unseasonable-day-at-yankee-stadium.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 GFS is close to something @ 180, there was a bit of southern energy that missed phasing, but the northern branch is fairly potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Impressively cold day today. Mid 20s and overcast at noon. Might struggle to hit freezing most places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Today the 12z GFS was much more typical for an early Spring pattern. Lots of cutters and inland runners with lots and lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Today the 12z GFS was much more typical for an early Spring pattern. Lots of cutters and inland runners with lots and lots of rain. The pattern wil eventually turn to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Today the 12z GFS was much more typical for an early Spring pattern. Lots of cutters and inland runners with lots and lots of rain. 12Z GEFS don't seem that warm at all compared to the OP, as the cold just sticks around. 850s get to 0-3+ only before it cools down again. Hope this breaks sometime in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The Gfs OP wasn't very warm and anything at day 10 or beyond will just change next run. We could break some cold records though with the very anomalous cold shot early next week. Still below freezing right now, you don't see that very often on March 17 during midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 12z GGEM has an insane low, but its out to sea, if the shortwave was farther SW we'd be in business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 One 12z GEFS member looks like the 00z Euro control run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 12z GGEM has an insane low, but its out to sea, if the shortwave was farther SW we'd be in business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I wonder if that little low at 132 hours on the Euro can trend a little more southward for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I wonder if that little low at 132 hours on the Euro can trend a little more southward for our area. Well the trend certainly has been south this past month, beyond that I would wait another 100 hours till even discussing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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