SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Yeah wonder if there is a later freeze in the city for April, would certainly seem that it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 We had a strong -EPO pattern last summer and it was cooler than normal over the Great Lakes and Midwest. But the key to our forecast last summer was the very strong Western Atlantic Ridge which kept us above normal. 500.png t.png amazing how persistent the -epo, +nao has been. a +nao in winter supports a SE ridge and over the summer that pattern translates to further north ridging over the atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I would like folks to track this and see how it goes when set and done... Even better, why don't you track it and report how off you are when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 If that guess is for New York City, the April idea is far too cold relative to local climatology and the historic temperature record. The latest high temperature below 32° in New York City is April 7 (which occurred in 1982) and New York City has never had more than 1 subfreezing high temperature in April. The last April with only 2 temperatures above 60° was 1874. It would be very unlikely for even one of the April figures to verify. If more than one verified, that outcome would be an historic event. It is like the twilight zone in here, a measured and factual response to a certified loon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 If that guess is for New York City, the April idea is far too cold relative to local climatology and the historic temperature record. The latest high temperature below 32° in New York City is April 7 (which occurred in 1982) and New York City has never had more than 1 subfreezing high temperature in April. The last April with only 2 temperatures above 60° was 1874. It would be very unlikely for even one of the April figures to verify. If more than one verified, that outcome would be an historic event. Also in the summer..if it is bright sunny day usually the temps are above 80..the only days with temps in the 70's in the summer are rainy cloudy days..to get 23 days below 70 for the max in the summer is impossible,unless you live in Hudson Bay or Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I inserted my predictions Below freezing days, maximum high <32F: March 17-31 = 0 Days April 1-15 = 0 Days April 16-30 = 0 Days Days above 60 F March 17-31 = 2 Days April 1-15 = 6 Days April 16-30 = 8 Days (might be too low) Summer Guess 6/21 through 9/20: Days above 90 = 23 Days Days below 70 = 12 Days (not uncommon in September) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What are the chances of snow in NYC in April with a -epo pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What are the chances of snow in NYC in April with a -epo pattern? probably better than average, but still not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Also in the summer..if it is bright sunny day usually the temps are above 80..the only days with temps in the 70's in the summer are rainy cloudy days..to get 23 days below 70 for the max in the summer is impossible,unless you live in Hudson Bay or Alaska I fully agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Also in the summer..if it is bright sunny day usually the temps are above 80..the only days with temps in the 70's in the summer are rainy cloudy days..to get 23 days below 70 for the max in the summer is impossible,unless you live in Hudson Bay or Alaska a max of 80 in July and August can come with lows in the 50's...The coolest July day I remember was July 4th or 5th 1979...The low was 53 and the high 69 with mostly Sunny skies...July 4th 1978 had temps in the low 60's all day but it came with clouds and rain...most of the record low max days had clouds and rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I don't remember ever seeing the gfs have such a cold look this late in the season. Normally in late March we start to struggle seeing lows get down to freezing, but now this time. There's still true arctic air for most of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I don't remember ever seeing the gfs have such a cold look this late in the season. Normally in late March we start to struggle seeing lows get down to freezing, but now this time. There's still true arctic air for most of Canada. Ugh. Do most people root for this on here? By April I am rooting for 60s and 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Ugh. Do most people root for this on here? By April I am rooting for 60s and 70s. Who said I'm rooting for it, just saying what it shows. I don't want a winter to summer type scenario, I prefer a nice transition period with warm but comfortable temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Who said I'm rooting for it, just saying what it shows. I don't want a winter to summer type scenario, I prefer a nice transition period with warm but comfortable temperatures in the 60s and 70s. sorry. Not you specifically. Just asking in general. It seems a lot of folks on weather boards would like to see cold and snow as long as possible and cool summers. I like different seasons. Hoping for something in the long range that resembles spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The cooling has already begun and there is no turning back.... Its good to see the imminent cooling for the region that I wrote about over a year ago coming to pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Its good to see the imminent cooling for the region that I wrote about over a year ago coming to pass... William I love ya, but I don't think anyone anywhere is seeing an imminent cooling. Ask the folks in Alaska.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 William I love ya, but I don't think anyone anywhere is seeing an imminent cooling. Ask the folks in Alaska.... Well, time will tell...but I go by the evidence more than anything else...would you not concede that during the 13 months since I made the post, the temps in the area have been running somewhat cooler overall than in recent years? The near record ice coverage on the Great Lakes is one sign, for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 With all due respect professor southern portions of Alaska are experiencing above normal temperature departures due in part to the persistent -epo and pna spike. The same reason we are experiencing some colder than normal departures. If this is evident of a long term cooling or warming trend I believe it's too soon to tell. I know there's a climate page. Apologizes in advance for responding on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 With all due respect professor southern portions of Alaska are experiencing above normal temperature departures due in part to the persistent -epo and pna spike. The same reason we are experiencing some colder than normal departures. If this is evident of a long term cooling or warming trend I believe it's too soon to tell. I know there's a climate page. Apologizes in advance for responding on this thread. Well, we all know that it would be pretty rare if every spot on the earth concurrently saw their average temperatures decline; as a general rule warming in one spot often leads to cooling in another; this is very common. Like I said...time will tell...I am not arrogant and I do not claim to know for certain what the future holds, weather wise...but I do believe the trend is for an overall decline in temperatures. Could I be dead wrong? Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 For the sake of clarity I tend to agree with you William. I was responding more so to the Weatherprof. Looking at various parameters including the long term negative pdo cycle, the current sun spot cycle behaving less active than initially anticipated and an expected return to a negative amo cycle in the near future, I would imagine a neutral to negative outlook for temperature trends. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 For the sake of clarity I tend to agree with you William. I was responding more so to the Weatherprof. Looking at various parameters including the long term negative pdo cycle, the current sun spot cycle behaving less active than initially anticipated and an expected return to a negative amo cycle in the near future, I would imagine a neutral to negative outlook for temperature trends. Time will tell. It's weathpruf, not prof. I'm a social scientist, not a hard scientist. But I believe in the scientific method and practice it. We make decisions based on the best science we have. it is never perfect. and the best science does not point to imminent cooling. And yes William I agree it's been cold.Now I hope all these learned scientists are wrong, cause we are in for a wolrd of hurt if they are right. pretyy cold out there right now, and snow in Cape may in March? Well I guess it's happened but not too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I heard the EURO control run showed some crazy solution Day 8-10? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I heard the EURO control run showed some crazy solution Day 8-10? Anyone? No ..its a hoax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 sorry. Not you specifically. Just asking in general. It seems a lot of folks on weather boards would like to see cold and snow as long as possible and cool summers. I like different seasons. Hoping for something in the long range that resembles spring. Most of us here are weather enthusiasts...Of course everyone enjoys spring time temps, but most of us here enjoy extreme events as well. Yeah, a 1" snowstorm in late March would suck, but if there was a threat for something historic, who wouldn't want that? We have 8 months of warm temps coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 It's weathpruf, not prof. I'm a social scientist, not a hard scientist. But I believe in the scientific method and practice it. We make decisions based on the best science we have. it is never perfect. and the best science does not point to imminent cooling. And yes William I agree it's been cold.Now I hope all these learned scientists are wrong, cause we are in for a wolrd of hurt if they are right. pretyy cold out there right now, and snow in Cape may in March? Well I guess it's happened but not too often. You are still better off overall if it gets warmer rather than colder...see below: In the long run...a colder climate might potentially reduce some infectious diseases that are common in the tropics such as malaria...but overall, a warmer climate is far more beneficial to the earth overall because it allows more agriculture to take place...and the food supply is absolutely essential to the survival of the human race...right up there with breathable air & water. It is a little known fact...but if the mean temperature across the Prairie Provinces of Canada were to go down by 1 C...grain production would be drastically affected. Food cannot be grown in the cold...and anyone who thinks that a general increase in global temperature would have a more deleterious impact on human life than a general decrease is quite simply mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I heard the EURO control run showed some crazy solution Day 8-10? Anyone? Don't take it seriously AT ALL. Everyone gets so fanatic since Euro was the only model to predict sandy being as bad as it was, but this winter, all models, especially the euro have been awful. Since this is a page for weather enthusiasts, I will not say don't talk about it, but it seems that every time a new thread is created for an event that's like a week away, the storm doesn't happen. With the rate this is going, the euro is going to show a historic snowstorm every week until june! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Most of us here are weather enthusiasts...Of course everyone enjoys spring time temps, but most of us here enjoy extreme events as well. Yeah, a 1" snowstorm in late March would suck, but if there was a threat for something historic, who wouldn't want that? We have 8 months of warm temps coming up. oh I am the same way. If we actually had a shot at some extreme two foot dump at the end id marh- that's great. But I enjoy seeing 105 degrees in July just as much. It's extreme too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 You are still better off overall if it gets warmer rather than colder...see below: I've been hearing this, but the more scientific consensus is that mass food shortages and famine are the more likely result. there are a couple interesting books by historian Brian Fagan, The Little Ice Age and The Long Summer, which examine the historical effects of warm and cold periods over those centuries. Fagan is not the liveliest writer ( his nemesis is Mark Kurlansky, author of Cod and Salt, because he is not a professional historian, but sells a lot more books...)but he is scholarly. Fish on Fridays, which examines the history of this tradition ( it had nothing to do with religion ) was his attempt to cash in on the success of Cod.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 No ..its a hoax No it isn't. The Euro control actually shows that. I would post it but I can't post Accuweather pro maps.Our area is crushed lol. The good thing is that the Euro and the ensembles also show a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 No it isn't. The Euro control actually shows that. I would post it but I can't post Accuweather pro maps.Our area is crushed lol. The good thing is that the Euro and the ensembles also show a big storm. Well then we are assured it won't happen. This weekend used to be the traditional start of winter flounder season. Back when we had winter flounder. It meant winter was over and break the fishing rods out. Used to be a flotilla of boats at Sheepshead bay. most are gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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