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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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New record low of 19 at JFK as the MOS got undercut by several degrees in the very strong CAA.

 

3/13

19 in 2014

21 in 1998

21 in 1989

21 in 1980

 

New record high of 65 was just set two days ago in JFK as well. With the warm SST anomalies still enhancing heights in NE Pacific, I think the pattern will continue to be volatile into early April.

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RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
443 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 19 SET IN 1948.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 21 SET IN 1998.


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the longevity of this cold pattern is prolific to say the least. I was hoping a nice jump to 60's come april but even then it looks like that may get delayed with this -EPO regime that doesn't want to go anywhere

 

It's the type of pattern where the fewer +10 or greater days like Tuesday are quickly answered by -10 or lower days.

With the average highs climbing daily now above 50, we can get upper 50's or 60's when we get a break in the cold

for a couple of days.

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the longevity of this cold pattern is prolific to say the least. I was hoping a nice jump to 60's come april but even then it looks like that may get delayed with this -EPO regime that doesn't want to go anywhere

It is amazing.  Started right around Thanksgiving and except for a few breaks here and there, has been persistent....just like the warmth in 11-12 was the same way....

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two analogs I liked before the winter were 1964-65 and 1981-82...We got as much snow as both of those winters combined but temperatures are about the same on average as 2014...Both 1965 and 1982 had late season snowfalls...Philadelphia had 2.5" on 3/17...2.3" on 3/20...1.7" on 3/25...3.0" on 4/2...1982 had 0.1" on 4/4...3.5" on 4/6 and 0.4" on 4/9...It remains to be seen what we get the rest of March and early April...I wouldn't be surprised if KNYC and Philadelphia get snow the second half of March and or early April...

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without snow the cold will be hard to track especially this time of year...Today was the 83rd day with a minimum of 32 or lower in KNYC...2010-11 had 84 and 2008-09 86...we need seven more days 32 or lower to reach 90...There have not been many years with that many days 32 or lower since 1950...You can count them on one hand...

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It looks like NYC is on track to finish this March with an average temperature below 40 degrees.

We are currently at the bottom of the snow list for the other Marches in this group since 1950

at 0.1".

 

2005......39.4.......6.9"

2001......39.6......3.8"

1996......38.9......13.2"

1993......39.7......11.9"

1984......36.7......11.9"

1978......39.0.......6.8"

1972......39.8.......2.3

1970......38.7.......4.0"

1967......36.7......17.4"

1960......33.3......18.5"

1950......36.4.......1.4"

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It looks like NYC is on track to finish this March with an average temperature below 40 degrees.

We are currently at the bottom of the snow list for the other Marches in this group since 1950

at 0.1".

 

2005......39.4.......6.9"

2001......39.6......3.8"

1996......38.9......13.2"

1993......39.7......11.9"

1984......36.7......11.9"

1978......39.0.......6.8"

1972......39.8.......2.3

1970......38.7.......4.0"

1967......36.7......17.4"

1960......33.3......18.5"

1950......36.4.......1.4"

if we are as cold as that it should be cold at times going into April...being cold is 50% of the equation for snow...1980 had a noreaster on March 31st and it ended as snow...it would be a waste of a cold March if it doesn't snow by April...

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It's really impressive after we see well below normal temperatures here for St.Patrick's 

Day that the winter pattern will reload yet again next week for a very impressive cool down

for the March 20-31 period. The -EPO ridge just keeps rebuilding.

 

Winter pattern

 

 

Just keeps going

 

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Below freezing days, maximum high <32F:

March 17-31 = 4 Days

April 1-15 = 3 Days

April 16-30 = 1 Day

 

Days above 60 F

March 17-31 = 0 Days

April 1-15 = 1 Day

April 16-30 = 1 Day

 

Summer Guess 6/21 through 9/20:

Days above 90 = 3 Days

Days below 70 = 23 Days

 

1992 and 2009 are looking really good right now .......

 

I would like folks to track this and see how it goes when set and done... 

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What does the -EPO do in June/July/August anybody know with different wave lengths ??  Assuming it holds through September...

 

We had a strong -EPO pattern last summer and it was cooler than normal over the Great Lakes and Midwest.

But the key to our forecast last summer was the very strong Western Atlantic Ridge which kept us above normal. 

 

 

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Do you think we'll have more sunnier days, although chilly from  3/20-4/10 due to -EPO and  +PNA and with + to neutral NAO and no mega Greenland Block to lock in mP air for days?  Instead we have more constant cP or cA air mass intrusions. Some warm ups ahead of them though. I would take 55 with full sun 4/15-4/30, while DC is 67 and do without 48 and rain each day, while it is 82 in DC for days on end.  I do think the -20C at 850 will be replaced with -10C at 850 in SE Canada by 4/10 due to solar day taking its toll in the Arctic and much longer days in Canada.  I know even in summer of 2009 the 925 mb temps were mostly above 0C up to 50 North still.

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Below freezing days, maximum high <32F:

March 17-31 = 4 Days

April 1-15 = 3 Days

April 16-30 = 1 Day

 

Days above 60 F

March 17-31 = 0 Days

April 1-15 = 1 Day

April 16-30 = 1 Day

 

Summer Guess 6/21 through 9/20:

Days above 90 = 3 Days

Days below 70 = 23 Days

 

1992 and 2009 are looking really good right now .......

 

I would like folks to track this and see how it goes when set and done... 

Mike are you saying there are 4 days in April where the maximum high doesn't reach 32?.there would be talk of another ice age..i seriously doubt that will happen..and 23 days where the daytime temp doesn't hit 70 in the summer?..what?

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Mike are you saying there are 4 days in April where the maximum high doesn't reach 32?.there would be talk of another ice age..i seriously doubt that will happen..and 23 days where the daytime temp doesn't hit 70 in the summer?..what?

I think he's way to warm with his forecast... :wacko:

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Below freezing days, maximum high <32F:

March 17-31 = 4 Days

April 1-15 = 3 Days

April 16-30 = 1 Day

 

Days above 60 F

March 17-31 = 0 Days

April 1-15 = 1 Day

April 16-30 = 1 Day

 

Summer Guess 6/21 through 9/20:

Days above 90 = 3 Days

Days below 70 = 23 Days

 

1992 and 2009 are looking really good right now .......

 

I would like folks to track this and see how it goes when set and done... 

Dude, you have to keep track of your own forecasts.  People aren't going to spend their time grading your forecast.

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Below freezing days, maximum high <32F:

March 17-31 = 4 Days

April 1-15 = 3 Days

April 16-30 = 1 Day

 

Days above 60 F

March 17-31 = 0 Days

April 1-15 = 1 Day

April 16-30 = 1 Day

 

Summer Guess 6/21 through 9/20:

Days above 90 = 3 Days

Days below 70 = 23 Days

 

1992 and 2009 are looking really good right now .......

 

I would like folks to track this and see how it goes when set and done... 

If that guess is for New York City, the April idea is far too cold relative to local climatology and the historic temperature record. The latest high temperature below 32° in New York City is April 7 (which occurred in 1982) and New York City has never had more than 1 subfreezing high temperature in April. The last April with only 2 temperatures above 60° was 1874. It would be very unlikely for even one of the April figures to verify. If more than one verified, that outcome would be an historic event.

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