Allsnow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 New record low of 19 at JFK as the MOS got undercut by several degrees in the very strong CAA. 3/13 19 in 2014 21 in 1998 21 in 1989 21 in 1980 #pazzo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 New record low of 19 at JFK as the MOS got undercut by several degrees in the very strong CAA. 3/13 19 in 2014 21 in 1998 21 in 1989 21 in 1980 New record high of 65 was just set two days ago in JFK as well. With the warm SST anomalies still enhancing heights in NE Pacific, I think the pattern will continue to be volatile into early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 #pazzo Those are pretty weak records. Still in the single digits at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY443 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NYTODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 19 SET IN 1948. RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY442 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 21 SET IN 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 the longevity of this cold pattern is prolific to say the least. I was hoping a nice jump to 60's come april but even then it looks like that may get delayed with this -EPO regime that doesn't want to go anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 the longevity of this cold pattern is prolific to say the least. I was hoping a nice jump to 60's come april but even then it looks like that may get delayed with this -EPO regime that doesn't want to go anywhere It's the type of pattern where the fewer +10 or greater days like Tuesday are quickly answered by -10 or lower days. With the average highs climbing daily now above 50, we can get upper 50's or 60's when we get a break in the cold for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 the longevity of this cold pattern is prolific to say the least. I was hoping a nice jump to 60's come april but even then it looks like that may get delayed with this -EPO regime that doesn't want to go anywhere It is amazing. Started right around Thanksgiving and except for a few breaks here and there, has been persistent....just like the warmth in 11-12 was the same way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 two analogs I liked before the winter were 1964-65 and 1981-82...We got as much snow as both of those winters combined but temperatures are about the same on average as 2014...Both 1965 and 1982 had late season snowfalls...Philadelphia had 2.5" on 3/17...2.3" on 3/20...1.7" on 3/25...3.0" on 4/2...1982 had 0.1" on 4/4...3.5" on 4/6 and 0.4" on 4/9...It remains to be seen what we get the rest of March and early April...I wouldn't be surprised if KNYC and Philadelphia get snow the second half of March and or early April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xdurango Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Prelim climate report has 32 high and 18 low for a -16 departure. Impressive. todays max in KNYC should be 32 which was at 1am daylight savings time...it would be number 33 for the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 without snow the cold will be hard to track especially this time of year...Today was the 83rd day with a minimum of 32 or lower in KNYC...2010-11 had 84 and 2008-09 86...we need seven more days 32 or lower to reach 90...There have not been many years with that many days 32 or lower since 1950...You can count them on one hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 One of our colder St.Patrick's Days in recent years coming up. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/holidays/stpatricksdaywx.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This -EPO regime is just relentless. This winter is going to go down as one of the coldest for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 It looks like NYC is on track to finish this March with an average temperature below 40 degrees. We are currently at the bottom of the snow list for the other Marches in this group since 1950 at 0.1". 2005......39.4.......6.9" 2001......39.6......3.8" 1996......38.9......13.2" 1993......39.7......11.9" 1984......36.7......11.9" 1978......39.0.......6.8" 1972......39.8.......2.3 1970......38.7.......4.0" 1967......36.7......17.4" 1960......33.3......18.5" 1950......36.4.......1.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It looks like NYC is on track to finish this March with an average temperature below 40 degrees. We are currently at the bottom of the snow list for the other Marches in this group since 1950 at 0.1". 2005......39.4.......6.9" 2001......39.6......3.8" 1996......38.9......13.2" 1993......39.7......11.9" 1984......36.7......11.9" 1978......39.0.......6.8" 1972......39.8.......2.3 1970......38.7.......4.0" 1967......36.7......17.4" 1960......33.3......18.5" 1950......36.4.......1.4" if we are as cold as that it should be cold at times going into April...being cold is 50% of the equation for snow...1980 had a noreaster on March 31st and it ended as snow...it would be a waste of a cold March if it doesn't snow by April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 12z Euro has -20C at 850mb in Late March. WTF? This is what Mikehobbyst dreams are made of. Another PV intrusion at 240hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Happy Spring? Seriously the -EPO reload makes what the Euro shows not look so far-fetched. Maybe not -20C at 850mb but perhaps not too far from it, the gfs showed something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 It's really impressive after we see well below normal temperatures here for St.Patrick's Day that the winter pattern will reload yet again next week for a very impressive cool down for the March 20-31 period. The -EPO ridge just keeps rebuilding. Winter pattern Just keeps going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What does the -EPO do in June/July/August anybody know with different wave lengths ?? Assuming it holds through September... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 My guess on monthly departure averages for NYC: approximate... Does anyone think this too ? March - 7 F April - 8 F May - 5 F June - 3 F July - 4 F August - 2 F September - 1 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Below freezing days, maximum high <32F: March 17-31 = 4 Days April 1-15 = 3 Days April 16-30 = 1 Day Days above 60 F March 17-31 = 0 Days April 1-15 = 1 Day April 16-30 = 1 Day Summer Guess 6/21 through 9/20: Days above 90 = 3 Days Days below 70 = 23 Days 1992 and 2009 are looking really good right now ....... I would like folks to track this and see how it goes when set and done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 What does the -EPO do in June/July/August anybody know with different wave lengths ?? Assuming it holds through September... We had a strong -EPO pattern last summer and it was cooler than normal over the Great Lakes and Midwest. But the key to our forecast last summer was the very strong Western Atlantic Ridge which kept us above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Do you think we'll have more sunnier days, although chilly from 3/20-4/10 due to -EPO and +PNA and with + to neutral NAO and no mega Greenland Block to lock in mP air for days? Instead we have more constant cP or cA air mass intrusions. Some warm ups ahead of them though. I would take 55 with full sun 4/15-4/30, while DC is 67 and do without 48 and rain each day, while it is 82 in DC for days on end. I do think the -20C at 850 will be replaced with -10C at 850 in SE Canada by 4/10 due to solar day taking its toll in the Arctic and much longer days in Canada. I know even in summer of 2009 the 925 mb temps were mostly above 0C up to 50 North still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Below freezing days, maximum high <32F: March 17-31 = 4 Days April 1-15 = 3 Days April 16-30 = 1 Day Days above 60 F March 17-31 = 0 Days April 1-15 = 1 Day April 16-30 = 1 Day Summer Guess 6/21 through 9/20: Days above 90 = 3 Days Days below 70 = 23 Days 1992 and 2009 are looking really good right now ....... I would like folks to track this and see how it goes when set and done... Mike are you saying there are 4 days in April where the maximum high doesn't reach 32?.there would be talk of another ice age..i seriously doubt that will happen..and 23 days where the daytime temp doesn't hit 70 in the summer?..what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Mike are you saying there are 4 days in April where the maximum high doesn't reach 32?.there would be talk of another ice age..i seriously doubt that will happen..and 23 days where the daytime temp doesn't hit 70 in the summer?..what? I think he's way to warm with his forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Below freezing days, maximum high <32F: March 17-31 = 4 Days April 1-15 = 3 Days April 16-30 = 1 Day Days above 60 F March 17-31 = 0 Days April 1-15 = 1 Day April 16-30 = 1 Day Summer Guess 6/21 through 9/20: Days above 90 = 3 Days Days below 70 = 23 Days 1992 and 2009 are looking really good right now ....... I would like folks to track this and see how it goes when set and done... Dude, you have to keep track of your own forecasts. People aren't going to spend their time grading your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Below freezing days, maximum high <32F: March 17-31 = 4 Days April 1-15 = 3 Days April 16-30 = 1 Day Days above 60 F March 17-31 = 0 Days April 1-15 = 1 Day April 16-30 = 1 Day Summer Guess 6/21 through 9/20: Days above 90 = 3 Days Days below 70 = 23 Days 1992 and 2009 are looking really good right now ....... I would like folks to track this and see how it goes when set and done... If that guess is for New York City, the April idea is far too cold relative to local climatology and the historic temperature record. The latest high temperature below 32° in New York City is April 7 (which occurred in 1982) and New York City has never had more than 1 subfreezing high temperature in April. The last April with only 2 temperatures above 60° was 1874. It would be very unlikely for even one of the April figures to verify. If more than one verified, that outcome would be an historic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Dude, you have to keep track of your own forecasts. People aren't going to spend their time grading your forecast. Lol I thought the exact same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 April's coldest maximums... 34 on 4/1/1874 34 on 4/3/1896 32 on 4/4/1879 30 on 4/5/1881 32 on 4/5/1879 34 on 4/5/1944 31 on 4/6/1881 33 on 4/6/1938 34 on 4/6/1943 30 on 4/7/1982 the lastest max below 40 is 37 on 4/20/1904... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Lol Pazzo still waiting for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Lol Pazzo still waiting for spring Long wait for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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