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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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Ok, you were very adamit yesterday that NYC wouldn't get below 10 degrees again this year. In fact if I remember correctly you thought 15 would be a stretch.

I think he knows that he busted, heh. It's been pointed out like ten times this morning. It happens to the best of us.

 

(also, I hate to be that guy, but for future reference: *adamant)

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Ok, you were very adamit yesterday that NYC wouldn't get below 10 degrees again this year. In fact if I remember correctly you thought 15 would be a stretch.

 

No I was responding to a model prog of 5.  I honestly didn't think we'd get below 10, and we did sit there for like 5 hours straight (touched 9 btwn obs). Very impressive shot of cold air.  I still think below 10 as we head into March now is highly unlikely.

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Met winter came in with an average of 33.0 degrees...That's below the 30 year normal and slightly below the long term average...

December 1st to February 28th-29th...
season......ave temp...coldest temp...
1869-70..........34.5..........

1870-71..........30.9
1871-72..........29.3...........-1
1872-73..........28.3...........-4
1873-74..........34.0
1874-75..........27.6...........-6
1875-76..........34.1............5
1876-77..........29.8............3
1877-78..........33.3............7
1878-79..........29.2...........-4
1879-80..........38.5............7

1880-81..........26.6...........-6
1881-82..........34.5...........-6
1882-83..........28.7............1
1883-84..........30.2...........-1
1884-85..........28.6...........-3
1885-86..........30.0...........-4
1886-87..........30.2............4
1887-88..........28.7............0
1888-89..........32.7............3
1889-90..........37.9............7

1890-91..........33.4............9
1891-92..........35.7............9
1892-93..........28.4............1
1893-94..........32.2............1
1894-95..........30.3...........-4
1895-96..........33.3...........-6
1896-97..........32.7............6
1897-98..........36.5............8
1898-99..........31.9...........-6
1899-00..........33.4............5

1900-01..........31.7............4
1901-02..........32.0............8
1902-03..........32.0............4
1903-04..........27.4...........-1
1904-05..........28.1............4
1905-06..........36.7............7
1906-07..........31.7............4
1907-08..........33.3............1
1908-09..........36.7............5
1909-10..........30.5............1

1910-11..........32.5..........11
1911-12..........30.6...........-3
1912-13..........37.2..........11
1913-14..........31.9...........-5
1914-15..........34.0............3
1915-16..........32.5............2
1916-17..........31.8............0
1917-18..........25.7.........-13
1918-19..........36.6..........10
1919-20..........27.4...........-2

1920-21..........34.9............4
1921-22..........31.4...........-2
1922-23..........30.0............7
1923-24..........34.6............5
1924-25..........33.4...........-2
1925-26..........32.0............5
1926-27..........32.0...........-1
1927-28..........34.6............7
1928-29..........34.7............8
1929-30..........35.4............7

1930-31..........33.8..........10
1931-32..........40.1..........15
1932-33..........37.8..........11
1933-34..........29.2.........-15
1934-35..........31.2...........-1
1935-36..........28.3...........-3
1936-37..........37.9..........13
1937-38..........34.3............6
1938-39..........35.4............6
1939-40..........31.6............7

1940-41..........33.0..........10
1941-42..........32.9............5
1942-43..........32.2...........-8
1943-44..........33.4..........10
1944-45..........30.5............2
1945-46..........32.3............5
1946-47..........34.8............7
1947-48..........30.0............0
1948-49..........38.5..........10
1949-50..........37.5............6

1950-51..........35.9............9
1951-52..........37.0............8
1952-53..........38.1..........12
1953-54..........37.4............7
1954-55..........34.0............0
1955-56..........32.7............5
1956-57..........35.6............0
1957-58..........33.3............3
1958-59..........30.9............7
1959-60..........36.2............9

1960-61..........31.7...........-2
1961-62..........33.3............4
1962-63..........30.0...........-2
1963-64..........33.3............9
1964-65..........33.3............9
1965-66..........35.9............8
1966-67..........34.1............4
1967-68..........31.3...........-1
1968-69..........32.9............9
1969-70..........30.5............3

1970-71..........32.1............4
1971-72..........35.1............5
1972-73..........35.8............7
1973-74..........35.5............6
1974-75..........37.5..........15
1975-76..........34.4...........-1
1976-77..........28.5...........-2
1977-78..........30.3..........10
1978-79..........32.7............0
1979-80..........35.4..........10

1980-81..........32.7...........-1
1981-82..........32.6............0
1982-83..........37.9..........12
1983-84..........35.2............4
1984-85..........36.4...........-2
1985-86..........33.4............8
1986-87..........34.8............4
1987-88..........34.7............5
1988-89..........35.9............5
1989-90..........35.7............6

1990-91..........39.2..........10
1991-92..........37.2..........11
1992-93..........35.0............7
1993-94..........31.2...........-2
1994-95..........37.1............6
1995-96..........32.3............5
1996-97..........37.8............4
1997-98..........39.6..........14
1998-99..........38.7............9
1999-00..........36.2............3

2000-01..........33.5..........14
2001-02..........41.5..........19
2002-03..........31.2............7
2003-04..........32.4............1
2004-05..........35.4............5
2005-06..........37.3..........14
2006-07..........36.5............8
2007-08..........36.4..........10
2008-09..........34.2............6
2009-10..........33.8..........13

2010-11..........32.7............6
2011-12..........40.5..........13

2012-13..........36.9..........11

2013-14..........33.0............4 as of 2/28...

ten yr. ave...
1870's.............31.5.........................
1880's.............30.8..........-0.5
1890's.............32.8...........2.3
1900's.............32.0...........3.7
1910's.............32.0...........1.4
1920's.............33.3...........3.8
1930's.............34.0...........4.9
1940's.............33.5...........4.7
1950's.............35.1...........6.0
1960's.............32.6...........4.1
1970's.............33.7...........5.4
1980's.............34.9...........4.1
1990's.............36.4...........6.7
2000's.............35.2...........9.7

2010's.............35.8...........8.5  as of 2/28/14
1870-
2009................33.4...........4.3
1980-
2009................35.5...........6.8
......................................................

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My temp plateaued at 3.7F and hasn't gone down in about two hours. Wind is dead calm, skies completely clear, uniform snowpack, and I really thought I'd be below 0 by now. I guess the mid-level WAA is just enough to keep the surface from becoming an ice box.

 

1.4f here now...   Areas above 1200' here are still around 10-11f

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we got a  consolation prize today with it being the 30th day with a max 32 or lower...Tomorrow should be 31...

Really hate those midnight highs, they really don't tell the tale of just how impressive the cold really is for today. Only 21F past noon here and probably not getting beyond 22-23F compared to an average of 46-47F.

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The GFS MOS ties the record low Tuesday morning at JFK of 12 degrees.

KJFK   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    3/03/2014  1200 UTC                       DT /MAR   3/MAR   4                /MAR   5                /MAR   6  HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12  N/X                    12          27          21          36    29  TMP  24 24 22 20 16 14 14 20 24 27 26 26 24 23 24 30 34 35 34 32 31 

3/4

12 in 1950

14 in 1962

16 in 2003

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