PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I cant remember seeing a -16 dewpoint at NYC this late in the season. go.cgi.gif Brother , check out the JMA weeklies . It Doesn`t end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dipped to 8F this morning, coldest low this late in the season I've ever experienced. I'll take Mondays storm and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Brother , check out the JMA weeklies . It Doesn`t end Back to your flooding concerns. Ive noticed with these cold patterns that are locked in they sometimes just flip to warm and no step down which would further make the flooding concerns in the MW more dramatic. From what i understand we may be seeing much colder than average all through march from the JMA weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Brother , check out the JMA weeklies . It Doesn`t end That is some great agreement with the CFS on a very cold March here possibly below 40 degrees in NYC. Below 40 degree March readings at NYC since 1980: 2005....39.4 2001....39.6 1996....38.9 1993....39.7 1984....36.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Pazzo around? Single digit low at NYC last night #climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Who wouldve thought in november we'd be talking about maybe having one of the most coldest and snowiest winters in history with the teleconnectors we had. The -EPO was the work horse and was impressive from start to finish paul, a winter worthy of telling my kid(s) I, for one, didn't. But by early December, the signals for a snowy winter had begun to emerge with the 8" snowfall in Philly perhaps marking the opening shot so to speak. It has been a remarkable winter. Let's see if it can keep going with snowfall opportunities until spring finally takes hold in April as 1995-96 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Don , if we break the 96 snow record , and the CFSV2 is right with its -5C for March this is the new benchmark . 2013- 2014 , between the cold and snow out do 77- 78 IMO . I would agree. After the Monday storm, we'll probably be one moderate or significant snowfall away from 1995-96's total with time and opportunities for additional snowfall still ahead. This has been a fun winter. November started things off with a 30° high temperature on 11/24; for our friends who like warmth, the first-ever winter time 60° minimum temperature (61° on 12/22) along with a 71° high; 2 10" snowstorms (3 possible after the upcoming one, which would tie the 2009-10 mark for most such snowstorms in a winter), 7 single-digit lows (most since 8 in 2004-05), 3 high temperatures < 20° (most since 2003-04 when there were 4). If NYC can stay in the teens today, that would be an extraordinary event. It would be the first such high temperature this late in the season since March 1, 1884. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 3 record lows broke last night. ISP bdr lga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm getting tired of it ... tonight when I get home at 10pm I have to shovel a path through the (3 foot high frozen solid) roadside snowbank and up the hill to my oil fill. This will be the latest oil delivery we've had in the 18 years I've lived in this house. Today and yesterday showed 3* or lower on the car thermo when I left for work. I don't remember that ever happening around here this late in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6z GFS is coastal city on the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 OK, I am impressed, city touched 9. Not a record (which was 5), but pretty solid shot of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 8F at Mount Vernon, NY. I never experienced weather like this at the end of February in my entire life. LMAO, are you like 9? During the Blizz of 93 we were in the low teens during the day with snow in VIRGINIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dewpoint JFK Airport -17 F at 2 AM (negative 17 F!)...!).....I don't know about what type of record keeping for this sort of thing is done...but I can't recall one that low around here in quite a while. Park had a -27C dewpoint last night, that is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'd say latest single digit in city since 1980 is a bit more than just a solid shot of cold. A temp in the upper teens would be considered solid for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 OK, I am impressed, city touched 9. Not a record (which was 5), but pretty solid shot of cold. Next week over snow cover , we prob beat 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Pazzo around? Single digit low at NYC last night #climo The low-mid single digit lows were over-done, and you know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'd say latest single digit in city since 1980 is a bit more than just a solid shot of cold. A temp in the upper teens would be considered solid for this time of year. A low of 9 is about a 2.5 sigma deviation, so uncommon but not some of the biblical -3 or -4 sigma departures that had been forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 7.7 for a low this AM IMBY. If we don't crack 20 with full sun today, that would be extremely impressive for Feb 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The models were too cold, my forecast low was 3 and I hit 8, so I'm not sure how it'll play out next week though snow cover could allow for colder temperatures. I would love to get at least one single digit low in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The models were too cold, my forecast low was 3 and I hit 8, so I'm not sure how it'll play out next week though snow cover could allow for colder temperatures. I would love to get at least one single digit low in March. That could happen tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 The models were too cold, my forecast low was 3 and I hit 8, so I'm not sure how it'll play out next week though snow cover could allow for colder temperatures. I would love to get at least one single digit low in March. The GFS MOS did the best as it had a low of 10 at NYC and it bottomed out at 9 degrees. The raw numbers from the 18z GFS and NAM were about 4 degrees too cold at NYC as they both had around a 5 degree low. The old trick is take the 18z guidance and compare to 0z actual temps and adjust your low temperature forecast for the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The GFS MOS did the best as it had a low of 10 at NYC and it bottomed out at 9 degrees. The raw numbers from the 18z GFS and NAM were about 4 degrees too cold at NYC. That's pretty typical I think. The UHI seems like it would be nearly impossible to model accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That's pretty typical I think. The UHI seems like it would be nearly impossible to model accurately. They should just add 5 - 7 degrees on all the algo`s and they will do fine .You live in the Sahara bro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 They should just add 5 - 7 degrees on all the algo`s and they will do fine .You live in the Sahara bro . The run this AM was chilly, but it's amazing how much warmer 10 feels at the end of Feb compared to mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'd say latest single digit in city since 1980 is a bit more than just a solid shot of cold. A temp in the upper teens would be considered solid for this time of year. actually according to NY metro weather thats latest shot of cold since 19 march 1967 for this date , even more impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The run this AM was chilly, but it's amazing how much warmer 10 feels at the end of Feb compared to mid January. In the SUN def - I left CN @ 530 trust me 7 degrees hurt ha . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I bottomed out at -4.0F, sitting at 13F now. I bet snywx hit like -16 or something, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 That's pretty typical I think. The UHI seems like it would be nearly impossible to model accurately. The raw guidance was also too cold for the more rural interior spots.The MOS did really well as other times it can get undercut by more than a degree or two in very strong CAA events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The run this AM was chilly, but it's amazing how much warmer 10 feels at the end of Feb compared to mid January. Well the sun's energy output/sun angle is akin to early to mid October now so it'll definitely feel warmer in the sun than in mid January. Too bad that doesn't apply in the shade or at night where it felt bitterly cold with some wind added in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 latest date KNYC got single digit temperatures for the winter since 1948... date..........temp... 3/18/1967...8 3/05/1948...9 2/28/2014...9 2/27/1950...8 2/26/1990...7 2/26/1970...9 2/23/1972...9 2/22/1963...8 2/21/1950...6 2/21/1968...5 2/20/1950...7 2/20/1966...8 2/20/1959...8 2/18/1979...0 2/18/1958...3 2/17/1973...7 2/16/1987...7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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