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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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Brother , check out the JMA weeklies . It Doesn`t end

Back to your flooding concerns. Ive noticed with these cold patterns that are locked in they sometimes just flip to warm and no step down which would further make the flooding concerns in the MW more dramatic. From what i understand we may be seeing much colder than average all through march from the JMA weeklies?

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Brother , check out the JMA weeklies .  It Doesn`t end

 

That is some great agreement with the CFS on a very cold March here possibly below 40 degrees in NYC.

 

Below 40 degree March readings at NYC since 1980:

 

2005....39.4

2001....39.6

1996....38.9

1993....39.7

1984....36.7

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Who wouldve thought in november we'd be talking about maybe having one of the most coldest and snowiest winters in history with the teleconnectors we had. The -EPO was the work horse and was impressive from start to finish paul, a winter worthy of telling my kid(s)

I, for one, didn't.

 

But by early December, the signals for a snowy winter had begun to emerge with the 8" snowfall in Philly perhaps marking the opening shot so to speak.

 

It has been a remarkable winter. Let's see if it can keep going with snowfall opportunities until spring finally takes hold in April as 1995-96 did.

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Don , if we break the 96 snow record , and the CFSV2 is right with its -5C for  March  this is the new benchmark . 2013- 2014 , between the cold and snow out do 77- 78 IMO .

I would agree. After the Monday storm, we'll probably be one moderate or significant snowfall away from 1995-96's total with time and opportunities for additional snowfall still ahead.

 

This has been a fun winter. November started things off with a 30° high temperature on 11/24; for our friends who like warmth, the first-ever winter time 60° minimum temperature (61° on 12/22) along with a 71° high; 2 10" snowstorms (3 possible after the upcoming one, which would tie the 2009-10 mark for most such snowstorms in a winter), 7 single-digit lows (most since 8 in 2004-05), 3 high temperatures < 20° (most since 2003-04 when there were 4).

 

If NYC can stay in the teens today, that would be an extraordinary event. It would be the first such high temperature this late in the season since March 1, 1884.

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I'm getting tired of it ... tonight when I get home at 10pm I have to shovel a path through the (3 foot high frozen solid) roadside snowbank and up the hill to my oil fill.  This will be the latest oil delivery we've had in the 18 years I've lived in this house.

 

Today and yesterday showed 3* or lower on the car thermo when I left for work.  I don't remember that ever happening around here this late in the year.

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I'd say latest single digit in city since 1980 is a bit more than just a solid shot of cold. A temp in the upper teens would be considered solid for this time of year.

 

A low of 9 is about a 2.5 sigma deviation, so uncommon but not some of the biblical -3 or -4 sigma departures that had been forecast.

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The models were too cold, my forecast low was 3 and I hit 8, so I'm not sure how it'll play out next week though snow cover could allow for colder temperatures. I would love to get at least one single digit low in March.

 

The GFS MOS did the best as it had a low of 10 at NYC and it bottomed out at 9 degrees. The raw

numbers from the 18z GFS and NAM were about 4 degrees too cold at NYC as they both had around

a 5 degree low. The old trick is take the 18z guidance and compare to 0z actual temps

and adjust your low temperature forecast for the morning.

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I'd say latest single digit in city since 1980 is a bit more than just a solid shot of cold. A temp in the upper teens would be considered solid for this time of year.

actually according to NY metro weather thats latest shot of cold since 19 march 1967 for this date , even more impressive!

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That's pretty typical I think.  The UHI seems like it would be nearly impossible to model accurately.

 

The raw guidance was also too cold for the more rural interior spots.The MOS did really well 

as other times it can get undercut by more than a degree or two in very strong CAA events.

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The run this AM was chilly, but it's amazing how much warmer 10 feels at the end of Feb compared to mid January.

Well the sun's energy output/sun angle is akin to early to mid October now so it'll definitely feel warmer in the sun than in mid January. Too bad that doesn't apply in the shade or at night where it felt bitterly cold with some wind added in. 

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latest date KNYC got single digit temperatures for the winter since 1948...

date..........temp...

3/18/1967...8

3/05/1948...9

2/28/2014...9

2/27/1950...8

2/26/1990...7

2/26/1970...9

2/23/1972...9

2/22/1963...8

2/21/1950...6

2/21/1968...5

2/20/1950...7

2/20/1966...8

2/20/1959...8

2/18/1979...0

2/18/1958...3

2/17/1973...7

2/16/1987...7

 

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