Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues

[JetsPens87]

To me with this upcoming thaw. .. All that really seemed to happen is some strong energy was finally able to break the cross polar epo flow. However you can look at the epac and see the ridge is certainly flattened but as that energy in the gulf of Alaska moves in it would allow the epo to start pumping again. In past years it was hard to budge the goa trough and we couldn't get any ridging. .. This year is the opposite and all signs point to the goa trough being a transient feature. Again energy running in this zonal flow will make a run towards the high latitudes instead of screaming across the atl.

[PB GFI]

To me with this upcoming thaw. .. All that really seemed to happen is some strong energy was finally able to break the cross polar epo flow. However you can look at the epac and see the ridge is certainly flattened but as that energy in the gulf of Alaska moves in it would allow the epo to start pumping again. In past years it was hard to budge the goa trough and we couldn't get any ridging. .. This year is the opposite and all signs point to the goa trough being a transient feature. Again energy running in this zonal flow will make a run towards the high latitudes instead of screaming across the atl.

Tremendous spkie in the PNA D 5  PV gets caught under the block 

[SnoSki14]

The question is can we get another storm. There are clearly hints toward the end of the month, but will it happen.

[PB GFI]

DT gona b HONKING big time for day 7 SE coast Snowstorm . 

 

Think thats gets to the Mid Atlantic 

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

DT gona b HONKING big time for day 7 SE coast Snowstorm . 

per HM regarding that storm:

 

I guess the key here was the PV moving closer toward the 50-50 position, giving the wave room to amplify. The details are of course irrelevant. EPS will, as always, be interesting.         

[Zelocita Weather]

Does the EURO show that storm? Does it show anything Sunday/Monday?

[PB GFI]

Does the EURO show that storm? Does it show anything Sunday/Monday?

Has some snow PITT  to ALBANY to BANGOR 

[PB GFI]

per HM regarding that storm:

 

I guess the key here was the PV moving closer toward the 50-50 position, giving the wave room to amplify. The details are of course irrelevant. EPS will, as always, be interesting.         

Right , less of a press and its the mid Atlantic and northeast . 7 days out , with that 500 mb look and that PNA dont be surprised to see some crazy solutions over the next week , until the model settles down its spreed and depth .

Def there for the taking , if we get the slightest retrogression 

[bluewave]

Right , less of a press and its the mid Atlantic and northeast . 7 days out , with that 500 mb look and that PNA dont be surprised to see some crazy solutions over the next week , until the model settles down its spreed and depth .

Def there for the taking , if we get the slightest retrogression 

 

It looks like the slight decline in the ridge near Alaska allowed the PV to slip more east this run than south on the last

few runs of the Euro. But some really nice potential is there should all the players on the board

come together in the right way.

 

 

[easternsnowman]

I`m surprised the Met`s on some of the networks go along with the headline story of  " a major pattern change is coming"   A 4 day hiccup in a long drawn out cold stormy pattern would be closer to reality .

they are there for entertainment purposes only and not for their skills it seems

[PB GFI]

It looks like the slight decline in the ridge near Alaska allowed the PV to slip more east this run than south on the last

few runs of the Euro. But some really nice potential is there should all the players on the board

come together in the right way.

 

NEW.gif

 

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_192.gif

I do like the look of this again .

[PB GFI]

 If we can figure out the depth of the trough over time we maybe able look for an Arctic wave closer to the coast like we pulled off in Jan

[SnowGoose69]

That is pretty much record cold air for a lot of the southeast if it verified, normal highs in places like Charlotte and Atlanta by the last days of February are around 60-62 with daily record lows in some cases being in the middle 20s

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

It looks like the slight decline in the ridge near Alaska allowed the PV to slip more east this run than south on the last

few runs of the Euro. But some really nice potential is there should all the players on the board

come together in the right way.

NEW.gif

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_192.gif

Wouldn't we generally prefer that as it would limit suppression when the pv really comes down? Also how does the se ridge look? That's the other player in the mix

[bluewave]

I do like the look of this again .

 

The ensemble mean maintains a stronger -EPO +PNA ridge than the OP with the PV in a more favorable position.

 

 

[PB GFI]

That is pretty much record cold air for a lot of the southeast if it verified, normal highs in places like Charlotte and Atlanta by the last days of February are around 60-62 with daily record lows in some cases being in the middle 20s

Wed Morning lows .To be fair , it thinks there`s a lot of snow cover there .

[PB GFI]

The ensemble mean maintains a stronger -EPO +PNA ridge than the OP with the PV in a more favorable position.

 

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_192.gif

 

MSLP_North32America_192.gif

The GFS and Canadian are further N . So the Euro like earlier in the year may struggle in a NEG EPO pattern out of the N Branch , and we prob have to look at the GFS like back in JAN

[Juliancolton]

That's a heck of a system at hour 174 on the Euro. Bombs out to 949 mb approaching the Maritimes. Shame there's not a stronger signal for something like that across the board.

[bluewave]

The GFS and Canadian are further N . So the Euro like earlier in the year may struggle in a NEG EPO pattern out of the N Branch , and we prob have to look at the GFS like back in JAN

 

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how this Arctic front storm potential works out compared to the 

two in January.

 

 

[beez]

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how this Arctic front storm potential works out compared to the 

two in January.

 

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 I have this  sneaking suspiscion that the mid atlantic and northeast gets a hecs sometime durIng the next 2 weeks. the pv dropping south with deep arctic air this time of the year  usually has very snowy consequences. so wish I could be up there for the next couple weeks

[Heisy]

What an epic GFS run, storm after storm after storm...Just gotta get passed this week. 

[bluewave]

 I have this  sneaking suspiscion that the mid atlantic and northeast gets a hecs sometime durIng the next 2 weeks. the pv dropping south with deep arctic air this time of the year  usually has very snowy consequences. so wish I could be up there for the next couple weeks

 

I think we have two windows of opportunity to put something together here. The first is next week ahead of the Arctic front,

and the second would be when the PV retreats back north the first week of March. Obviously, we are still outside

the details range. But the players are on the board for something good if things can come together.

[PB GFI]

I think we have two windows of opportunity to put something together here. The first is next week ahead of the Arctic front,

and the second would be when the PV retreats back north the first week of March. Obviously, we are still outside

the details range. But the players are on the board for something good if things can come together.

I've been a fan of east coast systems trailing the vortex out.

But this yr with a neg EPO hasn't taken much with a Pos pna

To see deepening close enough to the coast.

I would expect the models to be south and east like in jan then rally as we get closer.

Northern branch systems on arctic waves really favor closer to the coast. And JB s favorite line. It's snow or no.

[SnoSki14]

That PNA setting up looks beautiful, and yea arctic waves have been our friends this year so why not expect more snow. The huge amplification could also favor a major storm either next week or perhaps more likely as the PV retreats.

[Doorman]

 

slide show overview

for this time-frame

 

Upstream Ridge is a - BIGGY-

ENSEMBLES sold on cold....

 

http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/feb-25_zpscc007c31.gif

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

This pattern just brings a tear to my eye. So beautiful. All the ingredients are there. All there's left is the timing. If we get the timing right, this will make spring look like it's in the distant future. I'm keep my eye on this like a hawk. 

[REDMK6GLI]

This pattern just brings a tear to my eye. So beautiful. All the ingredients are there. All there's left is the timing. If we get the timing right, this will make spring look like it's in the distant future. I'm keep my eye on this like a hawk.

Me as well. With what we've done this winter with the kind of little support on the atlantic is there was a pattern to deliver a HECS on the EC it is this kind of pattern with the GOM open as well

[Chris L]

What an explosive setup it might be.

[Yanksfan]

In that set up, no doubt that would produce a major coastal. The wildcard player in all this would be any -NAO that develops; preferably west based. That would be the difference between a one footer and a 2foot+ HECS. Interesting times ahead, indeed.

[Heisy]

Even though the EURO kind of lost this storm, my god at the 240hr threat, one of the most beautiful maps I've ever seen. I'd be shocked if we don't cash in somehow.