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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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Truly a remarkable winter. I just can't believe the amount of storms/events we have had the opportunity to track and learn from this winter. To me, this was MUCH more exciting than having 1 blockbuster storm and then nothing or piddle events the rest of the winter. Of course I'm always chasing for the big one, but I have truly had a fantastic time tracking all these "nickel and dime" events this winter.

I think back to Dec 22 and we got hung with a 70 spot which  added 1 Whole Degree on for the month of Dec average  .

Dec as a whole was prob colder than normal but for that 4 day period that brought us over the top .

Jan and Feb were historic months  there`s no 2 ways around it .  Back in early Feb Bluewave and I were saying , man when this winter is over you`re going to look back and say wow what a layup that was . ( it never is when you are in the middle of it )  You could just see the cold coming and coming .

This  will go down as an epic EPO dominated winter .  To see the  connected  height field over the top for 60 - 75  plus days was outstanding  .

The one thing that will always irk me is that most people don`t realize how abnormal this winter is at the mid latitudes on the coastal plain and for so many in the CONUS east of the Rockies , this is going to be  number 1 or 2 in so many categories .

I will have to root on getting to 1996 , after all of this , we are goin to get our shot .

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I think back to Dec 22 and we got hung with a 70 spot which  added 1 Whole Degree on for the month of Dec average  .

Dec as a whole was prob colder than normal but for that 4 day period that brought us over the top .

Jan and Feb were historic months  there`s no 2 ways around it .  Back in early Feb Bluewave and I were saying , man when this winter is over you`re going to look back and say wow what a layup that was . ( it never is when you are in the middle of it )  You could just see the cold coming and coming .

It was just will go down as an epic EPO dominated winter .  To see the  connected  height field over the top for 60 - 75  plus days was outstanding  .

The one thing that will always irk me is that most people don`t realize how abnormal this winter is at the mid latitudes on the coastal plain and for so many in the CONUS east of the Rockies , this is going to be  number 1 or 2 in so many categories .

I will have to root on getting to 1996 , after all of this , we are goin to get our shot .

 

And that's a good point you bring up there with the -EPO and I'm sure may be the focus of numerous research studies to be done in the future. To me, moreso than the NAO/PNA/AO etc. , the EPO may  have a more direct correlation on cold and snow in the northeast. The past two winters have largely featured a semi-permanent trough in the GOA. whereas they were getting outstanding winters we were largely getting a dud. However, this winter which largely featured/s a ridge in that area... well we all know what happened here. The PNA to me is also a pretty dominant teleconnection, ridge in the west usually means adecent trough in the east, however even the PNA to me is less important in large scale patterns than the EPO. The NAO I am really just not a fan of and think to a large degree its overrated. This winter would be a strong case point towards that.

 

I should break it down this way (as the PNA and NAO are important but on a different level than the EPO)...

 

The PNA and NAO are largely transient in importance to EC snowstorms/cold IMO. Meaning, at any given point in time with one event they are useful, but if they are NOT in our favor, the larger dominant pattern can and will produce if the larger overall pattern is favorable (-EPO).

 

The EPO IMO is more important on a greater timescale than either the NAO/PNA. Whereas if we even for one second took the -EPO away we would be screwed (hence what happened when we soared to spring like conditions last week), and only to a certain degree could this have been salvaged had we had either +PNA or -NAO.

 

Any future research into the effects of EC snow/cold on the PNA/NAO would do well to examine their effects on a different timescale than I have seen much research done as I think the importance placed on them is placed on them in the incorrect timeframe.

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And that's a good point you bring up there with the -EPO and I'm sure may be the focus of numerous research studies to be done in the future. To me, moreso than the NAO/PNA/AO etc. , the EPO may  have a more direct correlation on cold and snow in the northeast. The past two winters have largely featured a semi-permanent trough in the GOA. whereas they were getting outstanding winters we were largely getting a dud. However, this winter which largely featured/s a ridge in that area... well we all know what happened here. The PNA to me is also a pretty dominant teleconnection, ridge in the west usually means adecent trough in the east, however even the PNA to me is less important in large scale patterns than the EPO. The NAO I am really just not a fan of and think to a large degree its overrated. This winter would be a strong case point towards that.

 

I should break it down this way (as the PNA and NAO are important but on a different level than the EPO)...

 

The PNA and NAO are largely transient in importance to EC snowstorms/cold IMO. Meaning, at any given point in time with one event they are useful, but if they are NOT in our favor, the larger dominant pattern can and will produce if the larger overall pattern is favorable (-EPO).

 

The EPO IMO is more important on a greater timescale than either the NAO/PNA. Whereas if we even for one second took the -EPO away we would be screwed (hence what happened when we soared to spring like conditions last week), and only to a certain degree could this have been salvaged had we had either +PNA or -NAO.

 

Any future research into the effects of EC snow/cold on the PNA/NAO would do well to examine their effects on a different timescale than I have seen much research done as I think the importance placed on them is placed on them in the incorrect timeframe.

EPO WPO MJO  . I have always been a believer that what`s happening upstream( PAC ) is more important than what`s happening downstream ( ATL ) .

I`m not saying the ATL doesn`t matter and with a neutral PAC signal  the NAO can and has overcome thermal issues on the EC .

But the PAC is the bully and when its firing for good or for bad the CONUS is going to respond to it and usually bow to it .

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Central Park dipped to 30 degrees the past hour...MesoNet shows a 24hr max of 32, so it looks like KNYC will (barely) record another subfreezing high temp today for its 29th of the season. #30 should come tomorrow.

Did knyc hit 34 today? I see that as their official high

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EPO WPO MJO  . I have always been a believer that what`s happening upstream( PAC ) is more important than what`s happening downstream ( ATL ) .

I`m not saying the ATL doesn`t matter and with a neutral PAC signal  the NAO can and has overcome thermal issues on the EC .

But the PAC is the bully and when its firing for good or for bad the CONUS is going to respond to it and usually bow to it .

There are years where we have had great NAO signals, but like you said if the PAC doesn't cooperate it's just a pac mT airmass being thrown across the conus and only THEN being slowed down or moderated a bit by the NAO. I think if research were done into this that one would find that on its own, the EPO without a good NAO is a much better signal for the EUS than the good NAO without a -EPO.

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Major improvements on the next threat. ;)

 

attachicon.gifgfsNE_sfc_prec_192.gif

Beautiful site particularly when you consider the truncation of the Precip shield on NW flank probably wont be there in long term since no obvious reason 4 it. that hreat has been ramping up for 36 hrs now. By time our projected snowstorm is over all eyes will shift to this 1

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