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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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we are still paying for the 71 degree day on December 22nd...This upcoming cold wave is unheard of for this time of year...In my lifetime there is only one day with single digit lows in March...3/18/1967...three days later we got a snowstorm...There was the 10 degree low on 3/1/1980 that surpressed a snowstorm to our south...there have been a few days that hit 11 and the last time was in 2007...anything below 10 will be near alltime record lows for March...

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we are still paying for the 71 degree day on December 22nd...This upcoming cold wave is unheard of for this time of year...In my lifetime there is only one day with single digit lows in March...3/18/1967...three days later we got a snowstorm...There was the 10 degree low on 3/1/1980 that surpressed a snowstorm to our south...there have been a few days that hit 11 and the last time was in 2007...anything below 10 will be near alltime record lows for March...

 

It stayed about 5F warmer than forecasted overnight, this is likely overdone as well.

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:lmao:  Gotta love the straw grasping. It's not obvious at all that you hate cold.

 

It was 20 overnight here, and was about 23 when I went running. Not that cold.  The chances of the temps dipping below 10F, especially from next week on, are remote.  Sorry, stats back me up here.  As Don was pointing out in I believe this thread, some of the lows that models were showing were >4 sigma, which means the chances of them coming to fruition are essentially 0.  >4 sigma temp departures occur maybe once every 75-100 years.

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It was 20 overnight here, and was about 23 when I went running. Not that cold.  The chances of the temps dipping below 10F, especially from next week on, are remote.  Sorry, stats back me up here.  As Don was pointing out in I believe this thread, some of the lows that models were showing were >4 sigma, which means the chances of them coming to fruition are essentially 0.  >4 sigma temp departures occur maybe once every 75-100 years.

Okay it was in the upper single digits out this way. You of all people should know about the UHI factor. Just because it wasn't that cold in Manhattan doesn't mean that 99% of the rest of the region wasn't really cold.

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Okay it was in the upper single digits out this way. You of all people should know about the UHI factor. Just because it wasn't that cold in Manhattan doesn't mean that 99% of the rest of the region wasn't really cold.

Yes but they are talking about nyc dropping below 10. That will be a very tough feat this time of year.

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Yes but they are talking about nyc dropping below 10. That will be a very tough feat this time of year.

NYC has some winters where they don't even drop below 20 degrees the entire season. I don't think anyone should expect NYC proper to get into the single digits unless the core of the PV was overhead like what we saw for a period in January.

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Yes but they are talking about nyc dropping below 10. That will be a very tough feat this time of year.

 

I'm all for setting records (except I wish it was during the weekend so I didn't have to run/walk to work in it), but we haven't flirted with 10F here since late January.  Tomorrow is the best shot but it will still be exceptionally difficult.

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Highly doubt? Ill take that under. ;)

I think it'll be very difficult without much snowcover left. Farmingdale for example got down to 11 last night, even JFK dropped to 16 and Central Park could only manage 20. Maybe I shouldn't have said "highly doubt" but I think 15 is the floor for Central Park to make it to.

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I'm all for setting records (except I wish it was during the weekend so I didn't have to run/walk to work in it), but we haven't flirted with 10F here since late January.  Tomorrow is the best shot but it will still be exceptionally difficult.

The 12z 4k NAM says that NYC gets down to 5 degrees tomorrow morning with areas west of Paterson below zero.

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This is my forecast for today by Upton

 

Scattered snow showers, mainly between noon and 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Windy, with a southwest wind 18 to 23 mph increasing to 24 to 29 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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Relative to averages you may be able to put a 5 day stretch during next week against any 5 day period this year and there's a chance it ends up colder. The cfsv2 is 12c below for 5 days and that's Going to be as cold as anything we had earlier this year

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Relative to averages you may be able to put a 5 day stretch during next week against any 5 day period this year and there's a chance it ends up colder. The cfsv2 is 12c below for 5 days and that's Going to be as cold as anything we had earlier this year

For march that is incredible and looks like storm chances continue into end of next week as well possibly paul

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