donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Don do you know the greatest sigma deviation for temps in the U.S. there have been greater deviations. For example, during the "summer in March" episode of 2012, some readings in Michigan's upper peninsula were >5 sigma above normal. This, of course, assumes a normal distribution (something that isn't assured). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I had a feeling the March "heat wave" of 2012 was probably way up there as one of the most anomalous events we've ever had in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 0z Euro has minimum temp of 3 for NYC Friday morning. 4km NAM is also minimum 5 for NYC Friday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6z nam 4 km for tomorrow morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6z nam 4 km for tomorrow morning... temp29.gif I'll eat my socks if that were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Week 2 - is colder than this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 we are still paying for the 71 degree day on December 22nd...This upcoming cold wave is unheard of for this time of year...In my lifetime there is only one day with single digit lows in March...3/18/1967...three days later we got a snowstorm...There was the 10 degree low on 3/1/1980 that surpressed a snowstorm to our south...there have been a few days that hit 11 and the last time was in 2007...anything below 10 will be near alltime record lows for March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 we are still paying for the 71 degree day on December 22nd...This upcoming cold wave is unheard of for this time of year...In my lifetime there is only one day with single digit lows in March...3/18/1967...three days later we got a snowstorm...There was the 10 degree low on 3/1/1980 that surpressed a snowstorm to our south...there have been a few days that hit 11 and the last time was in 2007...anything below 10 will be near alltime record lows for March... It stayed about 5F warmer than forecasted overnight, this is likely overdone as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It stayed about 5F warmer than forecasted overnight, this is likely overdone as well. Gotta love the straw grasping. It's not obvious at all that you hate cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It stayed about 5F warmer than forecasted overnight, this is likely overdone as well. it was 11 by me...cold enough for February 27th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gotta love the straw grasping. It's not obvious at all that you hate cold. It was 20 overnight here, and was about 23 when I went running. Not that cold. The chances of the temps dipping below 10F, especially from next week on, are remote. Sorry, stats back me up here. As Don was pointing out in I believe this thread, some of the lows that models were showing were >4 sigma, which means the chances of them coming to fruition are essentially 0. >4 sigma temp departures occur maybe once every 75-100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It was 20 overnight here, and was about 23 when I went running. Not that cold. The chances of the temps dipping below 10F, especially from next week on, are remote. Sorry, stats back me up here. As Don was pointing out in I believe this thread, some of the lows that models were showing were >4 sigma, which means the chances of them coming to fruition are essentially 0. >4 sigma temp departures occur maybe once every 75-100 years. Okay it was in the upper single digits out this way. You of all people should know about the UHI factor. Just because it wasn't that cold in Manhattan doesn't mean that 99% of the rest of the region wasn't really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gotta love the straw grasping. It's not obvious at all that you hate cold. Ever heard of UHI? He lives in Manhattan. I highly doubt temps get below 15 at Central Park again before next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Okay it was in the upper single digits out this way. You of all people should know about the UHI factor. Just because it wasn't that cold in Manhattan doesn't mean that 99% of the rest of the region wasn't really cold. Yes but they are talking about nyc dropping below 10. That will be a very tough feat this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ever heard of UHI? He lives in Manhattan. I highly doubt temps get below 15 at Central Park again before next winter. Highly doubt? Ill take that under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yes but they are talking about nyc dropping below 10. That will be a very tough feat this time of year. NYC has some winters where they don't even drop below 20 degrees the entire season. I don't think anyone should expect NYC proper to get into the single digits unless the core of the PV was overhead like what we saw for a period in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yes but they are talking about nyc dropping below 10. That will be a very tough feat this time of year. I'm all for setting records (except I wish it was during the weekend so I didn't have to run/walk to work in it), but we haven't flirted with 10F here since late January. Tomorrow is the best shot but it will still be exceptionally difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Highly doubt? Ill take that under. I think it'll be very difficult without much snowcover left. Farmingdale for example got down to 11 last night, even JFK dropped to 16 and Central Park could only manage 20. Maybe I shouldn't have said "highly doubt" but I think 15 is the floor for Central Park to make it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm all for setting records (except I wish it was during the weekend so I didn't have to run/walk to work in it), but we haven't flirted with 10F here since late January. Tomorrow is the best shot but it will still be exceptionally difficult. The 12z 4k NAM says that NYC gets down to 5 degrees tomorrow morning with areas west of Paterson below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 4km NAM and ECMWF was about 4-5 degrees too cold last night for KNYC. I would go above that much for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 12z 4k NAM says that NYC gets down to 5 degrees tomorrow morning with areas west of Paterson below zero. That will bust by at least 7-8 degrees for central park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This is my forecast for today by Upton Scattered snow showers, mainly between noon and 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Windy, with a southwest wind 18 to 23 mph increasing to 24 to 29 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The low here this morning was 7 degrees (6.8) at 5:17AM. Snow depth = 6" It's been flurrying with a couple of brief heavier bursts for the past hour or so. No new accumulation at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The departures for the 1st week of March are going to be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Relative to averages you may be able to put a 5 day stretch during next week against any 5 day period this year and there's a chance it ends up colder. The cfsv2 is 12c below for 5 days and that's Going to be as cold as anything we had earlier this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Relative to averages you may be able to put a 5 day stretch during next week against any 5 day period this year and there's a chance it ends up colder. The cfsv2 is 12c below for 5 days and that's Going to be as cold as anything we had earlier this year For march that is incredible and looks like storm chances continue into end of next week as well possibly paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The departures for the 1st week of March are going to be crazy. Yeah we could be looking at 3 consecutive months of >-4 departures even if the second half of the month moderates. Average highs will be in the mid to upper 40s and we won't be close to that for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Forget Wednesday we are going below 0 momentarily up here lol.. Currently 0.6f here -2 for the low IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 12z 4k NAM says that NYC gets down to 5 degrees tomorrow morning with areas west of Paterson below zero. Not happening. We'd have to be in the teens already at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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