PB GFI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Since you speak to JB , can you politely ask if he knows why the low temps are usually too cold on the wb models during arctic outbreaks? I know Maue is the one who's involved with the model part of wb, but maybe JB knows. Forget the snow maps..I don't pay attention to any of them to begin with whether is be wb, sv or anything else He knows Ryan snow maps at 10 to 1 look bad on the southern edges and specifically when there are marginal BL s they know it counts IP and ZR and Ryan will fix when the seasons over. As far as the temp maps. I think the euro is just bad in the urban areas. So they did poorly all winter. These maps are far from perfect as with any algo they will always have to be tweaked The maps are fair. They are not great they need to b fixed They are aware of the torching they take I just think it's a work In progress. I'm all honesty if they don't fix then they will lose subscribers And that's a real possibility if they fail at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Thanks for the response. In January it was very obvious with low temps in our area (Nassau) being 10-20 degrees too cold when I was looking at the Euro. And I'm not complaining about wb, I was kind of just wondering. Since I see a similar problem on wunderground, we may need to ask someone with more inside information on why that cold spot shows up right over our area. None of the other guidance does this. Maybe someone could e-mail Ryan Maue and post the response if it's ok with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 they make outright incorrect maps to make money off of weenies who don't know any better That's been JB's business model all along! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That's been JB's business model all along!i learned this in march 2001 when he kept giving hope for a big storm despite all the models jumping ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'm curious. When Glen Schwartz pushed back against WB fir the over the top map. Why didn't he admonish ncep for there cfsv2 snow map that had 20 inch snow depths as well. We get it the maps are over the top and the fact that is was on social media irked sone people. But the day that anyone wants to thwart free speech is a day we should all never Wana see Sorry don not directed towards you. I have tremendous respect for you. I just had to get that off my chest mate. I fully understanding. No problem at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 The latest runs of the GFS and NAM went a few degrees cooler for Friday morning with the potential for NYC to dip into the single digits and record lows at LGA and JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The latest runs of the GFS and NAM went a few degrees cooler for Friday morning with the potential for NYC to dip into the single digits and record lows at LGA and JFK. gfsNE_sfc_temp_054.gif f54.gif The ECMWF (from WU) also has single digits for and even below zero temperatures over NW of NYC. 850mb temps below near or below -20C with winds calm down late and some snow cover left, support those temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 The ECMWF (from WU) also has single digits for and even below zero temperatures over NW of NYC. 850mb temps below near or below -20C with winds calm down late and some snow cover left, support those temperatures. It's looking like the first below 10 degree potential at NYC during the last week of February since 1990. 26 6:35 5:44 44 30 37 65 1890 7 1990* 823 3548 1.87 1929 11.5 2010 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1990/us0226.php http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-DAFC9EFD-5585-4416-A652-E51A78F4DD88.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It's looking like the first below 10 degree potential at NYC during the last week of February since 1990. 26 6:35 5:44 44 30 37 65 1890 7 1990* 823 3548 1.87 1929 11.5 2010 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1990/us0226.php http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-DAFC9EFD-5585-4416-A652-E51A78F4DD88.pdf it was 9 on this date in 1970...March 1970 was relatively cold...1990 on the other hand saw mid 80's around NYC on the March 13th...before the heat 1990 had a 3-5" snowfall and temps in the low teens a week before...1970 had a late season storm with 4-11" on the 29th...the city started as rain and it was Easter Sunday that year...Going forward it looks like March will end up more like 1970 did than 1990... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 4K is showing a low around 5 for KNYC Chances look good for a sub 10 night. The cool thing is the low will be counted for March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 4K is showing a low around 5 for KNYC Chances look good for a sub 10 night. The cool thing is the low will be counted for March That would tie NYC's record low for the date. ISP and BDR records will be jeopardy as well, if the NAM is correct: Records for 2/28/14 NYC 5 1934 LGA 12 1980 JFK 15 1950 EWR 1 1934 BDR 10 1950 ISP 12 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That would tie NYC's record low for the date. ISP and BDR records will be jeopardy as well, if the NAM is correct: NYC 5 1934 LGA 12 1980 JFK 15 1950 EWR 1 1934 BDR 10 1950 ISP 12 2008 The 4k ran a little cold in the January cold spell, so Im thinking like 8. I think both jfk and lga break theirs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 i learned this in march 2001 when he kept giving hope for a big storm despite all the models jumping ship March 2001 is the biggest March snowstorm here of the past 47 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 4K is showing a low around 5 for KNYC Chances look good for a sub 10 night. The cool thing is the low will be counted for March That low would be for fri morning the 28th.... too bad it didn't come a day later as it would approach a March record for some places ... coldest temp here for March is 6 degrees (37 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That low would be for fri morning the 28th.... too bad it didn't come a day later as it would approach a March record for some places ... coldest temp here for March is 6 degrees (37 years). Ops yea...I was thinking today was the 27...dam yea that sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Northern NJ and Long island looks like they could get some decent squalls tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 the max today in KNYC was 31...This was the 28th day with a max 32 or lower...Tomorrow could be number 29...anything over 30 is in the top ten coldest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 the max today in KNYC was 31...This was the 28th day with a max 32 or lower...Tomorrow could be number 29...anything over 30 is in the top ten coldest... And Friday will be another... In Chicago this winter will likely wind up 3rd coldest since 1871, even beating out the late 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 the max today in KNYC was 31...This was the 28th day with a max 32 or lower...Tomorrow could be number 29...anything over 30 is in the top ten coldest... Unc, how much snow did KNYC get today? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gfs is below zero for everyone next wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gfs is below zero for everyone next wednesday That's still very far out, but that would be historic cold for March--lowest monthly reading for NYC and Tuesday would be only the 3rd day on record since 1872 to have a high temperature in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Today was one of those days where if you didn't get out and measure quickly you probably under measured. Once the snow stopped it cleared up quickly and the temp jumped quickly to near freezing so it melted fast. I noticed the official stations had 0.2 to 0.5 but some observers posting here had higher amounts including myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That's incredible cold for March, the lowest I had was 2F so to go below zero in March of all months would be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 For reference, a subzero low during the first week in March in Central Park would be about a 4.2 sigma deviation. The statistical probability of a low temperature 4.2 sigma below the baseline mean (1981-2010 baseline) would be about .0013%. In short, the odds are overwhelming that the GFS is overdone with the magnitude of cold in Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Don do you know the greatest sigma deviation for temps in the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gfs is below zero for everyone next wednesday Forget Wednesday we are going below 0 momentarily up here lol.. Currently 0.6f here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Forget Wednesday we are going below 0 momentarily up here lol.. Currently 0.6f here Yeah but that's every other day up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yeah but that's every other day up there Its been brutally cold this winter up here. Cant remember a yr where we have dropped below 0 this many times in a season. Ive lost track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Its been brutally cold this winter up here. Cant remember a yr where we have dropped below 0 this many times in a season. Ive lost track It's a balmy 17 here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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