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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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Since you speak to JB , can you politely ask if he knows why the low temps are usually too cold on the wb models during arctic outbreaks? I know Maue is the one who's involved with the model part of wb, but maybe JB knows. Forget the snow maps..I don't pay attention to any of them to begin with whether is be wb, sv or anything else

He knows Ryan snow maps at 10 to 1 look bad on the southern edges and specifically when there are marginal BL s they know it counts IP and ZR and Ryan will fix when the seasons over. As far as the temp maps. I think the euro is just bad in the urban areas. So they did poorly all winter.

These maps are far from perfect as with any algo they will always have to be tweaked The maps are fair. They are not great they need to b fixed They are aware of the torching they take I just think it's a work In progress.

I'm all honesty if they don't fix then they will lose subscribers

And that's a real possibility if they fail at that

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Thanks for the response. In January it was very obvious with low temps in our area (Nassau) being 10-20 degrees too cold when I was looking at the Euro. And I'm not complaining about wb, I was kind of just wondering.

 

Since I see a similar problem on wunderground, we may need to ask someone with more inside information

on why that cold spot shows up right over our area. None of the other guidance does this. Maybe someone

could e-mail Ryan Maue and post the response if it's ok with him.

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I'm curious. When Glen Schwartz pushed back against WB fir the over the top map. Why didn't he admonish ncep for there cfsv2 snow map that had 20 inch snow depths as well.

We get it the maps are over the top and the fact that is was on social media irked sone people. But the day that anyone wants to thwart free speech is a day we should all never Wana see

Sorry don not directed towards you. I have tremendous respect for you. I just had to get that off my chest mate.

I fully understanding. No problem at all.

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The latest runs of the GFS and NAM went a few degrees cooler for Friday morning with

the potential for NYC to dip into the single digits and record lows at LGA and JFK.

 

attachicon.gifgfsNE_sfc_temp_054.gif

 

attachicon.giff54.gif

 

The ECMWF (from WU) also has single digits for and even below zero temperatures over NW of NYC. 850mb temps below near or below -20C with winds calm down late and some snow cover left, support those temperatures.

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The ECMWF (from WU) also has single digits for and even below zero temperatures over NW of NYC. 850mb temps below near or below -20C with winds calm down late and some snow cover left, support those temperatures.

 

It's looking like the first below 10 degree potential at NYC during the last week of February since 1990.

26  6:35  5:44  44  30  37  65 1890   7 1990* 823  3548  1.87 1929  11.5 2010

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1990/us0226.php

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-DAFC9EFD-5585-4416-A652-E51A78F4DD88.pdf

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It's looking like the first below 10 degree potential at NYC during the last week of February since 1990.

26  6:35  5:44  44  30  37  65 1890   7 1990* 823  3548  1.87 1929  11.5 2010

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1990/us0226.php

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-DAFC9EFD-5585-4416-A652-E51A78F4DD88.pdf

it was 9 on this date in 1970...March 1970 was relatively cold...1990 on the other hand saw mid 80's around NYC on the March 13th...before the heat 1990 had a 3-5" snowfall and temps in the low teens a week before...1970 had a late season storm with 4-11" on the 29th...the city started as rain and it was Easter Sunday that year...Going forward it looks like March will end up more like 1970 did than 1990...

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4K is showing a low around 5 for KNYC Chances look good for a sub 10 night. The cool thing is the low will be counted for March

 

That would tie NYC's record low for the date. ISP and BDR records will be jeopardy as well, if the NAM is correct:

 

Records for 2/28/14

 

NYC 5 1934

LGA 12 1980

JFK 15 1950

EWR 1 1934

BDR 10 1950

ISP 12 2008

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That would tie NYC's record low for the date. ISP and BDR records will be jeopardy as well, if the NAM is correct:

 

NYC 5 1934

LGA 12 1980

JFK 15 1950

EWR 1 1934

BDR 10 1950

ISP 12 2008

The 4k ran a little cold in the January cold spell, so Im thinking like 8. I think both jfk and lga break theirs

post-4195-0-62580100-1393454863_thumb.gi

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4K is showing a low around 5 for KNYC Chances look good for a sub 10 night. The cool thing is the low will be counted for March

That low would be for fri morning the 28th.... too bad it didn't come a day later as it would approach a March record for some places ... coldest temp here for March is 6 degrees (37 years).

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Today was one of those days where if you didn't get out and measure quickly you probably under measured. Once the snow stopped it cleared up quickly and the temp jumped quickly to near freezing so it melted fast. I noticed the official stations had 0.2 to 0.5 but some observers posting here had higher amounts including myself.

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For reference, a subzero low during the first week in March in Central Park would be about a 4.2 sigma deviation. The statistical probability of a low temperature 4.2 sigma below the baseline mean (1981-2010 baseline) would be about .0013%. In short, the odds are overwhelming that the GFS is overdone with the magnitude of cold in Central Park.

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