MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ugly Euro run. The southeast ridge is more pronounced on this run for next week storm. Ugly 0z suite. It's only Monday so who cares right now. I have no clue why the models were so warm tonight with the storm.Good MJO signal with a nice -EPO and a rising PNA. Doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ugly Euro run. The southeast ridge is more pronounced on this run for next week storm. Ugly 0z suite. It's only Monday so who cares right now. I have no clue why the models were so warm tonight with the storm.Good MJO signal with a nice -EPO and a rising PNA. Doesn't make sense. I would go with... March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I would go with... March. Because of climatology? You can throw that out in the garbage. Look at all the cold air that's coming. That's not normal for March. These graphs below will show you why the models are wrong. The MJO is going to be favorable for an east coast storm. The PNA is rising and the EPO will be negative. I think the models are too warm at this range and will most likely get colder as the week goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I would go with... March. Dumb argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Dumb argument.Since when does climo not have validity?With that said, I'm not going to even pretend to know at this juncture what the outcome of this threat will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 That PNA graph around the 1st shows the PNA as negative so that is why the SE ridge is stronger around the 3rd with the system in discussion. Looks like the PNA does not go positive till AFTER that event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 0z GEFS looks good I have no clue why people are worrying 6 days out. The setup is a good one, as long as the PV cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 People act like its impossible for us to see snow in March. Climo plays no role in what happens in this setup as the results in March and the same setup in January would be almost the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 People act like its impossible for us to see snow in March. Climo plays no role in what happens in this setup as the results in March and the same setup in January would be almost the same.I haven't seen one person say that it's impossible to see snow in March.January and March COULD yield vastly different results from similar set ups. It really depends on the particular set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 0z GEFS looks good I have no clue why people are worrying 6 days out. The setup is a good one, as long as the PV cooperates. Seems you are one of the ones worrying lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Just read Upton's dico posted up top it tells you it could be all snow if it takes the right track and as we all know if it tracks further north and is a coastal hugger your done. And they say this before the ugly 0z models came out. So not sure why people are saying it cant be warmer well if it comes north and close to the coast with a zonal flow or even a se flow NYC and the coast are dead if it can happen in January and February. Why can't it happen now. Doesn't matter how cold it is before the storm with a se flow we are going to torch....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 06zGFS looks to be colder for monday-tuesday event, at least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Tek1972 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 One thing we can be sure of.... The snow melts faster in march And that's a good thing, especially for roadways as even strong snow events will begin to have less impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 6z GFS & EURO ensembles argue for a front end thump....something to keep in mind We can still cash in on this storm especially with the semi-good HP to the N to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Also the CMC/EURO have a Miller B snowstorm threat on the 6th, just throwing that out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Also the CMC/EURO have a Miller B snowstorm threat on the 6th, just throwing that out thereno more day 10 threats please ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 started new thread for the March 3 - 5 potential since it is only about 144 hours away and has been showing up on the guidance for a couple days now http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43016-march-3-4-snowstorm-potential/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Ugly Euro run. The southeast ridge is more pronounced on this run for next week storm. Ugly 0z suite. It's only Monday so who cares right now. I have no clue why the models were so warm tonight with the storm.Good MJO signal with a nice -EPO and a rising PNA. Doesn't make sense. The Euro wasn't that bad, it just has the majority of the over running snow to our north. Still a long way to go. Both the 00z and 06z GFS show a significant front end dump before any changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Latest guidance continues to hint at record low temperatures at JFK and LGA on Friday. The record low of 15 at JFK and 14 at LGA looks like it has a chance of being broken. It wil also be interesting to see if NYC can dip below 10 degrees for the first single digit reading this late in the season in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 ...It wil also be interesting to see if NYC can dip below 10 degrees for the first single digit reading this late in the season in quite some time. For reference, the last time the temperature fell below 10° after February 15 was February 16, 1987 (7°). The last time the temperature fell below 10° on or after February 28 was March 19, 1967 (8°). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 For reference, the last time the temperature fell below 10° after February 15 was February 16, 1987 (7°). The last time the temperature fell below 10° on or after February 28 was March 19, 1967 (8°). Did we have any snow cover during those years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GGEM for the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GGEM for the end of next week Even better than 00z. What an epic run. Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Did we have any snow cover during those years? 2" in March 1967 (the cold preceded a big snowstorm) and again 2" in February 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The day ten total snow map from the 12z GGEM on WxBell shows 24-30" area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The day ten total snow map from the 12z GGEM on WxBell shows 24-30" area wide. Will make it to FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Oh no here comes the social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Oh no here comes the social media. goes to show how big 1996 was. if that map verified, it would get us about equal with 1996 (locally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 euro has us in the single digits and below zero in spots friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Will make it to FB Yeah because people like you posted it here. It can easily get in the wrong hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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