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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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Ugly Euro run. The southeast ridge is more pronounced on this run for next week storm. Ugly 0z suite. It's only Monday so who cares right now. I have no clue why the models were so warm tonight with the storm.Good MJO signal with a nice -EPO and a rising PNA. Doesn't make sense.

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Ugly Euro run. The southeast ridge is more pronounced on this run for next week storm. Ugly 0z suite. It's only Monday so who cares right now. I have no clue why the models were so warm tonight with the storm.Good MJO signal with a nice -EPO and a rising PNA. Doesn't make sense.

I would go with... March.

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I would go with... March.

Because of climatology? You can throw that out in the garbage. Look at all the cold air that's coming. That's not normal for March. These graphs below will show you why the models are wrong. The MJO is going to be favorable for an east coast storm. The PNA is rising and the EPO will be negative. I think the models are too warm at this range and will most likely get colder as the week goes on.

pna.sprd2.gif

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

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People act like its impossible for us to see snow in March. Climo plays no role in what happens in this setup as the results in March and the same setup in January would be almost the same.

I haven't seen one person say that it's impossible to see snow in March.

January and March COULD yield vastly different results from similar set ups. It really depends on the particular set up.

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Just read Upton's dico posted up top it tells you it could be all snow if it takes the right track and as we all know if it tracks further north and is a coastal hugger your done. And they say this before the ugly 0z models came out. So not sure why people are saying it cant be warmer well if it comes north and close to the coast with a zonal flow or even a se flow NYC and the coast are dead if it can happen in January and February. Why can't it happen now. Doesn't matter how cold it is before the storm with a se flow we are going to torch.......

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Guest Tek1972

One thing we can be sure of.... The snow melts faster in march

And that's a good thing, especially for roadways as even strong snow events will begin to have less impact :)

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Ugly Euro run. The southeast ridge is more pronounced on this run for next week storm. Ugly 0z suite. It's only Monday so who cares right now. I have no clue why the models were so warm tonight with the storm.Good MJO signal with a nice -EPO and a rising PNA. Doesn't make sense.

The Euro wasn't that bad, it just has the majority of the over running snow to our north. Still a long way to go.

 

Both the 00z and 06z GFS show a significant front end dump before any changeover.

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Latest guidance continues to hint at record low temperatures at JFK and LGA on Friday.

The record low of 15 at JFK and 14 at LGA looks like it has a chance of being broken.

It wil also be interesting to see if NYC can dip below 10 degrees for the first single

digit reading this late in the season in quite some time.

 

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...It wil also be interesting to see if NYC can dip below 10 degrees for the first single

digit reading this late in the season in quite some time.

 

For reference, the last time the temperature fell below 10° after February 15 was February 16, 1987 (7°). The last time the temperature fell below 10° on or after February 28 was March 19, 1967 (8°).

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