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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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You're right it will be a cutter, it'll cut and transfer like others have said. If you mean a pure lake cutter or something like that then hell no. 

 

MJO and a +PNA strongly supports an east coast storm and that's all I need to go off of. We could see storm threats well into March if the MJO moves through the 8-2 phases. I think this could be one of the best March's in a while when it comes to snow and storm threats. 

you can never write off snow until around April 15th, and IIRC someone wrote March actually is snowier than December in this area, but March hasn't delivered for a number of years now, other than the pathetic one last year that dropped 7 inches which was down to 5 by the end of the storm.

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Agreed. a lot of small to mid-size events, just like 94. But it was a fun ride, just like 94.

Exactly.  A fun ride, yes, but still disappointing.  Ironically, the one thing I remember most about '94 was the Superbowl night blizzard that was predicted for a week but ended up being suppressed.  That storm - more than any other - felt like the one that got away.

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I don't see how this winter could EVER POSSIBLY be called disappointing. There have been disappointing moments, and a week or two, yes....but c'mon....we've had numerous 6"+ storms, a couple 10"+ storms, bitter cold for weeks on end with numerous highs barely in the teens, and a 2 foot snowpack for over a week.....with cold and snow to come.....this winter has been incredible. We sit here late February wit more than double the annual snowfall....and in my opinion....10-20" more to come. My favorite ever ? No. But disappointing ? Not whatsoever!!!

Sent from my iPhone

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biggest concern to me regardless of teleconnectors is a poor antecedent air mass/ retreating HP. not the setup you want in winter let alone in march

Don't agree at all. The models right now are showing a great cold air source and high pressure. Banana high. Not sure where you're getting this info from

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Don't agree at all. The models right now are showing a great cold air source and high pressure. Banana high. Not sure where you're getting this info from

Lol. I agree with your disagreement. Pretty decent setup with a fresh cold air source nearby and a nice confluent flow.
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I don't see how this winter could EVER POSSIBLY be called disappointing. There have been disappointing moments, and a week or two, yes....but c'mon....we've had numerous 6"+ storms, a couple 10"+ storms, bitter cold for weeks on end with numerous highs barely in the teens, and a 2 foot snowpack for over a week.....with cold and snow to come.....this winter has been incredible. We sit here late February wit more than double the annual snowfall....and in my opinion....10-20" more to come. My favorite ever ? No. But disappointing ? Not whatsoever!!!

Sent from my iPhone

Basically its the 1993-94 sequel, Even the Mid-late Feb torch last week followed that year

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Lol. I agree with your disagreement. Pretty decent setup with a fresh cold air source nearby and a nice confluent flow.

The pacific blocking is nuts, there is going to be a great cold air source. If the pv can hold itself in the prime 50/50 position like the gfs has been showing today as well as other globals, we should be good to go

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To me the combo of cold and snow might make it the best...2010-11 was close with a snowier colder Dec and snowier Jan but Feb was above normal temp wise with not much snow and Mar saw just a couple of inches.

if this March is cold and snowy this winter will rank up there with the best...It's not far from that now...KNYC needs three more days with a max 32 or lower to reach 30 for the season...most of the great winters had at least 49" of snow or more and 30 days with a max 32 or lower...Since 1930 the winters with 50" and 30 max days 32 or lower...

2002-03...49.3"...31

1995-96...75.6"...30

1993-94...53.4"...31

1977-78...50.7"...42

1947-48...63.2"...32

1933-34...52.0"...38

................................

2013-14...57.1"...27

1960-61...54.7"...27

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if this March is cold and snowy this winter will rank up there with the best...It's not far from that now...KNYC needs three more days with a max 32 or lower to reach 30 for the season...most of the great winters had at least 49" of snow or more and 30 days with a max 32 or lower...Since 1930 the winters with 50" and 30 max days 32 or lower...

2002-03...49.3"...31

1995-96...75.6"...30

1993-94...53.4"...31

1977-78...50.7"...42

1947-48...63.2"...32

1933-34...52.0"...38

................................

2013-14...57.1"...27

1960-61...54.7"...27

 

 

Great stats as usual, unc.  That 42 days of sub-freezing highs in 77-78 is quite impressive.  I had no idea that winter was remembered for its cold, in addition to the '78 blizzard.

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Great stats as usual, unc.  That 42 days of sub-freezing highs in 77-78 is quite impressive.  I had no idea that winter was remembered for its cold, in addition to the '78 blizzard.

the January and February 1978 average was the coldest since 1935-36...although the lowest temp for the winter was 10 there were many days in the teens that year...

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the January and February 1978 average was the coldest since 1935-36...although the lowest temp for the winter was 10 there were many days in the teens that year...

Unc W

 

you are a treasure on this board!!!!

just can't say enough about your tremendous diligence with the numbers

 

RESPECT

tommy e

 

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html

 

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It won't be a warm storm, the gfs being the gfs just shreds those highs like nothing. It is completely wrong.

Well Upton thinks it could be warm- although they really aren't sticking their necks out too much here. Basically saying it could be anything:

A SRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION ON

MON. WILL MENTION MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW ATTM...BUT

GIVEN THE INHERENT FCST UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE

DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME...AND THAT THE

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL OR COULD EVEN BACK SW VIA WEAK RIDGING

ACROSS THE SE STATES...A SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES ARE ON THE

TABLE...RANGING FROM AN ALL-SNOW EVENT IF THE LOW TRACK REMAINS TO

THE SOUTH...TO A CHANGE TO A WINTRY/ICY MIX...OR EVEN ALL RAIN TO

NYC AND THE COAST...IF THE LOW TRACK IS FARTHER NORTH.

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