weatherpruf Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 You're right it will be a cutter, it'll cut and transfer like others have said. If you mean a pure lake cutter or something like that then hell no. MJO and a +PNA strongly supports an east coast storm and that's all I need to go off of. We could see storm threats well into March if the MJO moves through the 8-2 phases. I think this could be one of the best March's in a while when it comes to snow and storm threats. you can never write off snow until around April 15th, and IIRC someone wrote March actually is snowier than December in this area, but March hasn't delivered for a number of years now, other than the pathetic one last year that dropped 7 inches which was down to 5 by the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 96' had snow on opening day in the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Agreed. a lot of small to mid-size events, just like 94. But it was a fun ride, just like 94. Exactly. A fun ride, yes, but still disappointing. Ironically, the one thing I remember most about '94 was the Superbowl night blizzard that was predicted for a week but ended up being suppressed. That storm - more than any other - felt like the one that got away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Agreed. a lot of small to mid-size events, just like 94. But it was a fun ride, just like 94. Just lofl. Honestly, just because a winter had no 18"+ storms in NYC doesn't mean this winter isn't historic ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I don't see how this winter could EVER POSSIBLY be called disappointing. There have been disappointing moments, and a week or two, yes....but c'mon....we've had numerous 6"+ storms, a couple 10"+ storms, bitter cold for weeks on end with numerous highs barely in the teens, and a 2 foot snowpack for over a week.....with cold and snow to come.....this winter has been incredible. We sit here late February wit more than double the annual snowfall....and in my opinion....10-20" more to come. My favorite ever ? No. But disappointing ? Not whatsoever!!! Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 biggest concern to me regardless of teleconnectors is a poor antecedent air mass/ retreating HP. not the setup you want in winter let alone in march Don't agree at all. The models right now are showing a great cold air source and high pressure. Banana high. Not sure where you're getting this info from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Don't agree at all. The models right now are showing a great cold air source and high pressure. Banana high. Not sure where you're getting this info fromLol. I agree with your disagreement. Pretty decent setup with a fresh cold air source nearby and a nice confluent flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I don't see how this winter could EVER POSSIBLY be called disappointing. There have been disappointing moments, and a week or two, yes....but c'mon....we've had numerous 6"+ storms, a couple 10"+ storms, bitter cold for weeks on end with numerous highs barely in the teens, and a 2 foot snowpack for over a week.....with cold and snow to come.....this winter has been incredible. We sit here late February wit more than double the annual snowfall....and in my opinion....10-20" more to come. My favorite ever ? No. But disappointing ? Not whatsoever!!! Sent from my iPhone Basically its the 1993-94 sequel, Even the Mid-late Feb torch last week followed that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Lol. I agree with your disagreement. Pretty decent setup with a fresh cold air source nearby and a nice confluent flow. The pacific blocking is nuts, there is going to be a great cold air source. If the pv can hold itself in the prime 50/50 position like the gfs has been showing today as well as other globals, we should be good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Lol. I agree with your disagreement. Pretty decent setup with a fresh cold air source nearby and a nice confluent flow.That guy has no clue what he's talking about. The setup looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 96' had snow on opening day in the Bronx. Ill buy tix now if you can guarantee it 4 this year. Gotta C Derek in his last year anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Don't agree at all. The models right now are showing a great cold air source and high pressure. Banana high. Not sure where you're getting this info from earlier model runs were showing this. the newer runs are showing a better setup, sorry for the misunderstanding CooL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 That guy has no clue what he's talking about. The setup looks good. read above response yanks. im not "that" dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 96' had snow on opening day in the Bronx. 96' had snow on opening day in the Bronx. Opening day of trout season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 To me the combo of cold and snow might make it the best...2010-11 was close with a snowier colder Dec and snowier Jan but Feb was above normal temp wise with not much snow and Mar saw just a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 To me the combo of cold and snow might make it the best...2010-11 was close with a snowier colder Dec and snowier Jan but Feb was above normal temp wise with not much snow and Mar saw just a couple of inches. if this March is cold and snowy this winter will rank up there with the best...It's not far from that now...KNYC needs three more days with a max 32 or lower to reach 30 for the season...most of the great winters had at least 49" of snow or more and 30 days with a max 32 or lower...Since 1930 the winters with 50" and 30 max days 32 or lower... 2002-03...49.3"...31 1995-96...75.6"...30 1993-94...53.4"...31 1977-78...50.7"...42 1947-48...63.2"...32 1933-34...52.0"...38 ................................ 2013-14...57.1"...27 1960-61...54.7"...27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 if this March is cold and snowy this winter will rank up there with the best...It's not far from that now...KNYC needs three more days with a max 32 or lower to reach 30 for the season...most of the great winters had at least 49" of snow or more and 30 days with a max 32 or lower...Since 1930 the winters with 50" and 30 max days 32 or lower... 2002-03...49.3"...31 1995-96...75.6"...30 1993-94...53.4"...31 1977-78...50.7"...42 1947-48...63.2"...32 1933-34...52.0"...38 ................................ 2013-14...57.1"...27 1960-61...54.7"...27 Great stats as usual, unc. That 42 days of sub-freezing highs in 77-78 is quite impressive. I had no idea that winter was remembered for its cold, in addition to the '78 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Great stats as usual, unc. That 42 days of sub-freezing highs in 77-78 is quite impressive. I had no idea that winter was remembered for its cold, in addition to the '78 blizzard. the January and February 1978 average was the coldest since 1935-36...although the lowest temp for the winter was 10 there were many days in the teens that year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 00z GFS starts off as a day plus of scattered snow showers before flipping to moderate rain. Then a lobe of the PV phases completely and sends a cutter up the spine of the apps. What a crazy synoptic setup. Perhaps I'm wrong but it looks like a triple phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The entire area. QPF is 0.50-0.75" area wide, and primarily frozen. Fwiw the 0z gfs looks very different..much warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 the January and February 1978 average was the coldest since 1935-36...although the lowest temp for the winter was 10 there were many days in the teens that year... Unc W you are a treasure on this board!!!! just can't say enough about your tremendous diligence with the numbers RESPECT tommy e http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I doubt it is going to be a warm storm with the mjo going into 8-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It won't be a warm storm, the gfs being the gfs just shreds those highs like nothing. It is completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Fwiw the 0z gfs looks very different..much warmer It's worth about as much as your post is. It showed one of the most epic WAA setups we've seen in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It won't be a warm storm, the gfs being the gfs just shreds those highs like nothing. It is completely wrong.Well Upton thinks it could be warm- although they really aren't sticking their necks out too much here. Basically saying it could be anything:A SRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION ON MON. WILL MENTION MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE INHERENT FCST UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME...AND THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL OR COULD EVEN BACK SW VIA WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SE STATES...A SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES ARE ON THE TABLE...RANGING FROM AN ALL-SNOW EVENT IF THE LOW TRACK REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...TO A CHANGE TO A WINTRY/ICY MIX...OR EVEN ALL RAIN TO NYC AND THE COAST...IF THE LOW TRACK IS FARTHER NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It's worth about as much as your post is. It showed one of the most epic WAA setups we've seen in years. Umm you just said yourself it flipped to rain. That's not warmer than 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 It could be anything; the onset of precip is no less than a full week out, if at all. Given the failure of this week's threats to materialize, I don't think we can ask for anything more than continued support of some large-scale system over the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 This event lasts for days also with the overrunning to finally the inland runner. Massive potential with all that cold air and cold highs coming down, should be interesting to track regardless of what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Umm you just said yourself it flipped to rain. That's not warmer than 18z? It's seven days out, irrelevant. Plus a completely different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 00z GGEM has the energy for the March 1st system riding a long a frontal boundary brining us rain and then snow. Then develops a full blown miller A for days 9-10. In case you were wondering, plenty cold right to the coast. Not that it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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