IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I don't think we want a phase with this system as that would probably lead to a stronger cutter and we would end with either more ice or more rain or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 12z GGEM is sort of a hybrid between the GFS and the Euro. The end result is a coastal that stays mostly offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 12z GFS ensembles love the Monday Threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 12z GFS ensembles love the Monday Threat The mean looks like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The mean looks like the GGEM. So its a miller A/B hybrid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 So its a miller A/B hybrid? More of a bowling ball type system. Doesn't cut to the Ohio valley like what the GFS shows but not a true miller A either. These systems usually end up either cutting or staying suppressed, not taking the middle of the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YanksFan27.75 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I agree completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro has split the pv for this event. This might be a little more suppressed then last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 WAA snow moving in at hour 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Going to look similar to the 12z GFS. Primary to the Ohio Valley 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Primary hanging tough at hour 168, getting a little warm for the immediate coast and southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Shades of the event from earlier this month which brought the heavy front end dump and then ice inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Hour 174 transfer occurs right over southern NJ, nasty ice storm north of I-80 and south of I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro is a SWFE. Good hit from SNE northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Shunted east of Cape Cod hour 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Euro is a SWFE. Good hit from SNE northward. It looks very similar to the event from the first week of February. This run was definitely a trend towards the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Unimportant verbatim it's a 6-8, 4-6, and 2-4" front end dump from northwest to southeast across the area ending as freezing rain inland and rain for the immediate coast and central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Second system coming in for mid next week looks decent as well on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 The Euro backed off on the amplitude of the Sunday PV digging into SE Canada so the next system at 168 can ride further north now. Not a really great run for the coastal sections, but very icy interior as the CAD holds strong at the surface. But it's possible the coast could see a better front end thump potential if the secondary is forced a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Really strong signal on the 12z ECMWF ensembles today for this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The Euro backed off on the amplitude of the Sunday PV digging into SE Canada so the next system at 168 can ride further north now. Not a really great run for the coastal sections, but very icy interior as the CAD holds strong at the surface. But it's possible the coast could see a better front end thump potential if the secondary is forced a little further south. The downside of a retreating high and PV. The LP wraps up becomes a coastal hugger and makes it a mess for coastal sections and ice setup for inland areas. This setup SNE/NE Do great in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 The downside of a retreating high and PV. The LP wraps up becomes a coastal hugger and makes it a mess for coastal sections and ice setup for inland areas. This setup SNE/NE Do great in Yeah, the ensemble mean has a better banana high CAD pattern than the OP with more ridging over the Midwest. Not sure if that is just the smoothed ensemble mean being normally less amped than the OP at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Any talk of the actual baroclinic zone 7 to 8 days out is just insanity . Don't worry about the coast. Don't worry about snow vs ice vs rain . 7 to 8 days systems hav a spread from Buffalo to DC. Models will not clear that up for a few days. That's not something anyone should concern themselves with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The Canadian ensemble's were a really nice threat for the fourth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Long way to go. March is going to be a very active month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 MJO should move into phase 8 in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 18z GFS, northern stream dropping in faster. Primary heading to TN/OH river valley. More of a phased system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Light WAA snow hour 165. Primary still over TN. Signs of a secondary forming over the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Moderate to heavy snow hour 168, bit hit incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Hour 171 secondary pops right over OBX. Moderate to heavy snow continues. Primary dying over KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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