SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Massive storm potential on the gfs, maybe PD II like overrunning monster. Once you get the cold air and set the stage, then big things will start to happen. I'm also not discounting midweek threat either with better sampling now starting to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 MECS at 192 on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The pattern with the system that the Euro is advertising for March 3rd resembles February 13th when a low undercut a very strong departing high pressure system. Lets see if the Euro and ensembles continue to hold serve over the next week and this threat materializes as our best potential since 2/13-2/14. The GEFS look like they have the same general idea. MSLP_North32America_192.gif 14021300.gif gfs-ens_mslpa_us_34.png Biggest issue i have with that and anyone along the coastal plain should as well albeit we are far out still is a coastal hugging track which would all but guarantee snow-rain/slop on the coast and inland snowstorm. Like i said its far out, but 2/13 had the retreating high and anybody within 50 miles of the coast didnt do as good as those inland. Best scenario should this play out is a well timed phase that would take it to the BM and not hug the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Biggest issue i have with that and anyone along the coastal plain should as well albeit we are far out still is a coastal hugging track which would all but guarantee snow-rain/slop on the coast and inland snowstorm. Like i said its far out, but 2/13 had the retreating high and anybody within 50 miles of the coast didnt do as good as those inland. Best scenario should this play out is a well timed phase that would take it to the BM and not hug the coast. Most places near the coast had 10-12" with the 2/13 snowstorm. I was one of the only areas that really got shafted by that. As we get later and later into the season, it will become more difficult to have enough cold air near the coast for a lot of snow with a hugger track. Increasingly those favor the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 MECS at 192 on the euro. Yeah it's a fast mover but the track is a nice one. FWIW the ensemble mean was further south with the track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 MECS at 192 on the euro. Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Most places near the coast had 10-12" with the 2/13 snowstorm. I was one of the only areas that really got shafted by that. As we get later and later into the season, it will become more difficult to have enough cold air near the coast for a lot of snow with a hugger track. Increasingly those favor the mountains. Yup thats what i was trying to get at. Our locations to be favorable need a rapidly deepening LP to head to the BM in order to keep P-type issues along the coast to a minimum in this setup and especially in march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Where? Trust me it's there. Bowling ball system that is tucked right in about 75 miles east of ACY at hour 198. I just noticed that you posted the 12z run. Here is hour 192 as the low is still inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 Yup thats what i was trying to get at. Our locations to be favorable need a rapidly deepening LP to head to the BM in order to keep P-type issues along the coast to a minimum in this setup and especially in march The other interesting thing is that the Euro and ensembles try to reload about 2-3 days later. So the potential is certainly there if we can realize even a portion of it. The GEFS agree with the Euro ensembles on a good CAD pattern keeping plenty of cold available for 3rd as long as track is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The March 4th storm has a lot of support from all the models. The track is in question though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 There is always a storm in the long range.. im suspecting this "great pattern for a storm" will be cold and dry...and when it does come...it will be rain. Hoping im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 There is always a storm in the long range.. im suspecting this "great pattern for a storm" will be cold and dry...and when it does come...it will be rain. Hoping im wrong. Dont think we get out of this pattern especially in march without a big storm on the EC. However we all know without good CAD, storm track and cold air source living on the coastal plain is inherently dangerous regardless in march for an all snow event. This far out if its well inside the BM the coast will most likely have p- type issues but a BM track and a rapidly deepening LP system would cover alot of those sins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 There is always a storm in the long range.. im suspecting this "great pattern for a storm" will be cold and dry...and when it does come...it will be rain. Hoping im wrong. you're right, nothing has worked out this winter, 60 inches of snow is way below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 if the last four days of February are as cold as predicted it could end up averaging 32.0 or lower...That would make January and February average 32.0 or lower for the first time since 2003...before that 1994...since 1948 there have been only seven years with January and February averaging 32 or less...1963 was less Dec./Jan/Feb...1955/1958/1976 had a December and January that both averaged 32 or lower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 We need the PNA to go positive if we want to see a storm. It looks to go positive next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 12z GFS is going to show the same un phased system for the March 4th time frame. While it looks good for now, we'll run the same risk of this ending up sheared out as time draws closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 12z GFS is going to show the same un phased system for the March 4th time frame. While it looks good for now, we'll run the same risk of this ending up sheared out as time draws closer. The PV is retreating on this run so it should show a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The PV is retreating on this run so it should show a good run. Yes but it looks just like the threat that came before it with perhaps some better timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Looks like a lobe of the PV is going to swing down into Montana and help to shunt this system a long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 WAA snow arriving Monday afternoon on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Nice storm --- of course 174 hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Transferring off the coast at 180 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Miller B this run. Primary low to the Ohio Valley. Secondary down in the Carolinas. Looks like it will end up being a pretty big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Moderate snow at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The transfer happens at nearly the perfect location to maximize WAA precipitation and precipitation from the developing coastal. It's also a gradual transfer with relatively weak areas of low pressure. A totally different scenario than what the Euro had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The area is getting crushed at hour 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Heavy wet snow from the I-95 corridor and points north and west. Weak coastal tucked right into the NJ coast as the CCB develops overhead. The kicker coming in behind the storm finally shunts it well offshore by hour 204. Boston only gets brushed. Definitely something to watch. Nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Heavy wet snow from the I-95 corridor and points north and west. Weak coastal tucked right into the NJ coast as the CCB develops overhead. Another system right behind it digging at 204 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Even stepping away from the storm threats, the duration and expansion of this January like cold going into March is quite remarkable. Those powerful highs diving south are awesome to see and we should get a nice front end thump no matter what happens with the storm given the amount of cold air in place. Just think about March 2012 and the pattern coming up and how dramatically different they will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Another system right behind it digging at 204 hours. Which is acting as a kicker for the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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