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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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The pattern with the system that the Euro is advertising for March 3rd resembles February 13th

when a low undercut a very strong departing high pressure system. Lets see if the Euro and

ensembles continue to hold serve over the next week and this threat materializes as our best

potential since 2/13-2/14. The GEFS look like they have the same general idea.

MSLP_North32America_192.gif

14021300.gif

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_34.png

Biggest issue i have with that and anyone along the coastal plain should as well albeit we are far out still is a coastal hugging track which would all but guarantee snow-rain/slop on the coast and inland snowstorm. Like i said its far out, but 2/13 had the retreating high and anybody within 50 miles of the coast didnt do as good as those inland. Best scenario should this play out is a well timed phase that would take it to the BM and not hug the coast.

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Biggest issue i have with that and anyone along the coastal plain should as well albeit we are far out still is a coastal hugging track which would all but guarantee snow-rain/slop on the coast and inland snowstorm. Like i said its far out, but 2/13 had the retreating high and anybody within 50 miles of the coast didnt do as good as those inland. Best scenario should this play out is a well timed phase that would take it to the BM and not hug the coast.

Most places near the coast had 10-12" with the 2/13 snowstorm. I was one of the only areas that really got shafted by that.

 

As we get later and later into the season, it will become more difficult to have enough cold air near the coast for a lot of snow with a hugger track. Increasingly those favor the mountains.

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Most places near the coast had 10-12" with the 2/13 snowstorm. I was one of the only areas that really got shafted by that.

As we get later and later into the season, it will become more difficult to have enough cold air near the coast for a lot of snow with a hugger track. Increasingly those favor the mountains.

Yup thats what i was trying to get at. Our locations to be favorable need a rapidly deepening LP to head to the BM in order to keep P-type issues along the coast to a minimum in this setup and especially in march

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Yup thats what i was trying to get at. Our locations to be favorable need a rapidly deepening LP to head to the BM in order to keep P-type issues along the coast to a minimum in this setup and especially in march

 

The other interesting thing is that the Euro and ensembles try to reload about 2-3 days later. So the potential is certainly there

if we can realize even a portion of it. The GEFS agree with the Euro ensembles on a good CAD 

pattern keeping plenty of cold available for 3rd as long as track is east.

 

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There is always a storm in the long range.. im suspecting this "great pattern for a storm" will be cold and dry...and when it does come...it will be rain. Hoping im wrong.

Dont think we get out of this pattern especially in march without a big storm on the EC. However we all know without good CAD, storm track and cold air source living on the coastal plain is inherently dangerous regardless in march for an all snow event. This far out if its well inside the BM the coast will most likely have p- type issues but a BM track and a rapidly deepening LP system would cover alot of those sins

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if the last four days of February are as cold as predicted it could end up averaging 32.0 or lower...That would make January and February average 32.0 or lower for the first time since 2003...before that 1994...since 1948 there have been only seven years with January and February averaging 32 or less...1963 was less Dec./Jan/Feb...1955/1958/1976 had a December and January that both averaged 32 or lower...

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Heavy wet snow from the I-95 corridor and points north and west. Weak coastal tucked right into the NJ coast as the CCB develops overhead.

 

The kicker coming in behind the storm finally shunts it well offshore by hour 204. Boston only gets brushed.

 

Definitely something to watch. Nothing more, nothing less.

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Even stepping away from the storm threats, the duration and expansion of this January like cold going into March is quite remarkable. Those powerful highs diving south are awesome to see and we should get a nice front end thump no matter what happens with the storm given the amount of cold air in place. 

 

Just think about March 2012 and the pattern coming up and how dramatically different they will be. 

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