donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Which all came in one storm Yes. Parts of the Hudson Valley got 30" from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 18z GFS has one heck of a winter storm signal for next Monday (24th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 18z GFS has one heck of a winter storm signal for next Monday (24th) That 1040mb high brings down some serious cold air for late February, too. After the Monday threat, which just needs a little more phasing, we have a second overrunning threat developing as the southern stream becomes active with strong high pressure just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 That 1040mb high brings down some serious cold air for late February, too. After the Monday threat, which just needs a little more phasing, we have a second overrunning threat developing as the southern stream becomes active with strong high pressure just to the north. Just in time to freshen up the snow pack which is going to get crushed this week. I would think only piles will be left here. Inland especially on the north side of hills should have snow left this weekend but its going to be a real glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 18z GFS has one heck of a winter storm signal for next Monday (24th)its the one behind that as the nao goes neutral that I am sitting here drooling over....might not be a hit this run but it has legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The Euro control run sees 3 systems on the EC in the next 15 days Day 9- 11 -13 . So not sure there are 3 , but its seeing more more than 1 . At day 10 the Euro ensembles drop the PV into Hudson Bay and the pos height field is connected over the top . So we may end up paying for this upcoming 4 to 5 day warm up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The Euro control run sees 3 systems on the EC in the next 15 days Day 9- 11 -13 . So not sure there are 3 , but its seeing more more than 1 . At day 10 the Euro ensembles drop the PV into Hudson Bay and the pos height field is connected over the top . So we may end up paying for this upcoming 4 to 5 day warm up . Thinking we may be able to make a run at 95-96' seasonal snowfall totals with the kind of pattern thus far set up for the end of this month and into early march. We may have another shot at another widespread blizzard for the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thinking we may be able to make a run at 95-96' seasonal snowfall totals with the kind of pattern thus far set up for the end of this month and into early march. We may have another shot at another widespread blizzard for the EC Lets see some run to run continuity over the next week as to how long that trough is in the lakes . Right now its in and then out in 5 days . Doesn't mean its not possible . because all you really need is a buckling of the jet . But that's far off . Lets get 3 tomorrow and go from there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Lets see some run to run continuity over the next week as to how long that trough is in the lakes . Right now its in and then out in 5 days . Doesn't mean its not possible . because all you really need is a buckling of the jet . But that's far off . Lets get 3 tomorrow and go from there . you'll get three I doubt I will but yea totally agree again. lets get through this storm tomorrow and what seems the winters first torch before we do start talking big storm possibilities when the cold arrives again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 March 2-3, 1994 had a major noreaster bringing 5-7" of snow and sleet to NYC...Other years with big snows at the beginning of March... 1913-14 had 14" on the 1st-2nd... 1967-68 had 6.6" on the 1st... 2008-09 had 8.3" on the 2nd-3rd... 1995-96 had 4.6" on the 2nd... 1959-60 had 14" on the 3rd-4th... 1977-78 had 5" on the 3rd... I did some research today on March snow depths...The records were missing some days so I estimated totals... 2010 had 10" on the ground on March 1st...By the 4th it all melted except for shoveled mounds... year....days 1" consecutive 1" and dates... 2005.....11..........9..........3/1-3/9 1996.....10..........5..........3/8-3/12 1994.....11..........8..........3/1-3/8 1993.......9..........9..........3/13-3/21 1984.......9..........6..........3/8-3/13 1978.....16........12..........3/1-3/12 1967.....12........11..........3/15-3/25 1960.....12..........9..........3/3-3/11 1956.....12........10..........3/16-3/25 1941.....10..........8..........3/7-3/14 1934.....10..........5..........3/8-3/12 1920.....11........10..........3/1-3/10 1917.....11........10..........3/1-3/10 1916.....22........12/10.....3/2-3/13- 3/15-3/24 1914.....15........14..........3/1-3/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 If you want one last crack at a big storm this year you don't want the core of the coldest air anywhere near here. Preferably you want it over the lakes so that as energy rotates around it their will be enough room for it to amplify up the coast. Otherwise you can end up with a fish storm. Without good blocking we'll need a well timed phase as the PV is approaching or retreating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 If you want one last crack at a big storm this year you don't want the core of the coldest air anywhere near here. Preferably you want it over the lakes so that as energy rotates around it their will be enough room for it to amplify up the coast. Otherwise you can end up with a fish storm. Without good blocking we'll need a well timed phase as the PV is approaching or retreating. Good point. We may have to bookend a chance at a significant storm with the pv approaching much like occurred last time around. Though I think there is a chance even with the pv hanging around because if we develop a split flow we may be able to pull offa phase with any energy love rotating around the pv. Also we have more Southern stream interaction than last time around when we were basically stuck in Clipper purgatory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 If you want one last crack at a big storm this year you don't want the core of the coldest air anywhere near here. Preferably you want it over the lakes so that as energy rotates around it their will be enough room for it to amplify up the coast. Otherwise you can end up with a fish storm. Without good blocking we'll need a well timed phase as the PV is approaching or retreating. Nah and disagree..Too much over analysis here. I have 60" on the season without any good blocking according to you lol... There has been tremendous pacific blocking this year and it's going to return next week. Of course you're not going to get a big storm while a PV is over us, but as it relaxes, that's when you get your big storm potential. It's a cycle, but first we need to get that here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 240 hr EURO ripe for an historic event. Blocking galore, and where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The Euro ensembles are cold from Day 5 thru 15 . Pattern is cold for at least 10 days .There`s plenty of room for amplification in this pattern . As the PV drops over the pole by day 9 - The Height field reconnects over the top . The EPO falls to 4SD below normal The WPO to 2 SD below and the PNA goes POS and the AO goes NEG . The warm up is 4 days ,and then its done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The storm showing up on the EURO & (moreso the GFS) at 174-192 hours reminds me of January 16-17 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I hope it's not like jan 16-17 1994. As new York got very little snow with that storm before it changed to sleet then frz rain and eventually all rain..... if I remember correctly that was a big storm for the Midwest. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Good point. We may have to bookend a chance at a significant storm with the pv approaching much like occurred last time around. Though I think there is a chance even with the pv hanging around because if we develop a split flow we may be able to pull offa phase with any energy love rotating around the pv. Also we have more Southern stream interaction than last time around when we were basically stuck in Clipper purgatory. The models currently are hinting at way more high latitude blocking positioned from Greenland into the Davis Straight and N Central Canada. If that happens we will then have a late season cold air source and blocking -- at which point we can start to look at the potential for more significant snow events and we will then be talking top 5 all time winter territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 6z GEFS suggest some big time cold at end of this month. 500mb pattern looks alot like we saw in late January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 6z GEFS suggest some big time cold at end of this month. 500mb pattern looks alot like we saw in late January: great starting point with the cold and much better blocking heading into march. also the +PNA would be big help and also a phase 8/1 MJO would go a long way as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The models currently are hinting at way more high latitude blocking positioned from Greenland into the Davis Straight and N Central Canada. If that happens we will then have a late season cold air source and blocking -- at which point we can start to look at the potential for more significant snow events and we will then be talking top 5 all time winter territory. regardless john we've done fantastic this winter compared to other historically cold/snowy winters that had better overall teleconnectors collectively. This period late February into march has my attention as most of the models are actually leaning towards a patter that would be a textbook support for sig. winter storms or better on the EC. +PNA,-EPO,-NAO and an MJO 8/1 phase is a pretty damn good start at maybe tracking another major winter storm for the EC to make a run at our top snowiest winters region wide before winter heads north until december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 EWR: 1. 78.4" 1995-96 2. 73.5" 1960-61 3. 68.2" 2010-11 4. 64.9" 1977-78 5. 64.5" 1993-94 6. 58.4" 2013-14 Great stats, Don. The interesting thing is that this is the strongest -EPO ridge east toward Northern Greenland pattern that we are seeing of those years. 1961 and 1994 were also Pacific centered but didn't extend quite as far east as this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 yesterday was the 27th day the temperature was 32 or lower in KNYC...This ties it with 1960-61...The last time NYC had 30 such days was in 2002-03... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I gotta say. ... In an "average" Winter the pattern currently being modeled on long range guidance is one that we would kill to get any sort of Chance at. On top of the dinner we have already had is just epic. The slight zonal pattern or flux that we are about to enter may actually be best at giving us our long range chances. I say this because right now energy screams around this flow and shoots out over the Atlantic. However the zonal flow should allow for energy to cut up into Canada and the straights thus hopefully pumping Heights over the high latitude. So in my opinion the general public rejoicing this upcoming thaw would actually scoff at it if they knew what exactly it was doing for the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I gotta say. ... In an "average" Winter the pattern currently being modeled on long range guidance is one that we would kill to get any sort of Chance at. On top of the dinner we have already had is just epic. im excited for this upcoming pattern. we've had great luck with what really is not all that great of winter with crappy teleconnectors in general. for the first time this winter season ( albeit close to spring ) we may get to see what mother nature could deliver to us with the upcoming pattern should it come to fruition as we get closer to the said time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The past ~ 2 weeks certainly did not dissapoint. It was being billed as EPIC and that is what it was. I received right around 30" of snow in 2 weeks with 6 different storms of 1" or greater. 1 12"+ storm, 1 6"+ storm, 1 ~ 3" storm, and 3 1"-2" storms.... All the while building the snowpack to 15-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I gotta say. ... In an "average" Winter the pattern currently being modeled on long range guidance is one that we would kill to get any sort of Chance at. On top of the dinner we have already had is just epic. The slight zonal pattern or flux that we are about to enter may actually be best at giving us our long range chances. I say this because right now energy screams around this flow and shoots out over the Atlantic. However the zonal flow should allow for energy to cut up into Canada and the straights thus hopefully pumping Heights over the high latitude. So in my opinion the general public rejoicing this upcoming thaw would actually scoff at it if they knew what exactly it was doing for the long range. I`m surprised the Met`s on some of the networks go along with the headline story of " a major pattern change is coming" A 4 day hiccup in a long drawn out cold stormy pattern would be closer to reality . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The past ~ 2 weeks certainly did not dissapoint. It was being billed as EPIC and that is what it was. I received right around 30" of snow in 2 weeks with 6 different storms of 1" or greater. 1 12"+ storm, 1 6"+ storm, 1 ~ 3" storm, and 3 1"-2" storms.... All the while building the snowpack to 15-20" Same here plus a major ice storm plus a thunderstorm. Surely one of the more memorable stretches of weather in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 great starting point with the cold and much better blocking heading into march. also the +PNA would be big help and also a phase 8/1 MJO would go a long way as well That screams HECS potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I`m surprised the Met`s on some of the networks go along with the headline story of " a major pattern change is coming" A 4 day hiccup in a long drawn out cold stormy pattern would be closer to reality . Many people will be surprised to learn that spring is indeed not on its way yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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