Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The GFS still looks mediocre for the weekend threat. The source energy looked more potent translating across the west, but it never really amplified, so it got sheared out.yeah, the gfs loses the system but still manages to get more waa precip into phl and nyc now this run, so imo its a step in the right direction this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Ggem is interesting... its really driving the northern energy south...nice low along the Gulf: not to mention the 1048 mb hp coming into the plains...wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Ggem is interesting... its really driving the northern energy south...nice low along the Gulf: not to mention the 1048 mb hp coming into the plains...wow! Ralph, won't that HP push any storm OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Ralph, won't that HP push any storm OTS?Sure it could that's why the strength and positioning of the pv are so important if we want either a full phase (somewhat unlikely attm) or a southern system meandering up the coast overunning the hp.If we can get the pv to pull away or split and get the confluence in a slightly better spot, then we could potentially pull that southern system north. That's why just being in mjo phase 8/1 isn't always a guarantee though I am feeling confident about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Here is the GGEM for March 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 -24 850's at hour 180 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 0z Euro has a coastal storm near March 4th, just like the GGEM. Before this, the Euro shears out the upcoming weekend's storm. The PV is really intense on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 0z Euro has a coastal storm near March 4th, just like the GGEM. Before this, the Euro shears out the upcoming weekend's storm. The PV is really intense on the Euro. Lol. Why is it always the storm In the super long range that looks good. Kinda like always wanting to put in your second string QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro likely overdone with the strength and positioning of the pv in regards to the weekend system. There are increasing signals across the board that a storm will affect the entire EC except on the european model thus I am discarding its solution attm and siding with a blend of the ggem/ukmet/gfs which favor a storm. Take the gfs for example...pulls the pv far enough into greenland to allow for the southern stream energy to drift north. Not concerned about temps yet, we can hatch that out later but just know the signal is there for a system to impact the EC next weekend and the threat is increasing: Slp over the obx...perfect spot just need to hammer out strength and track details from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I know its a 6z run of the GFS, but upon watching that run, a piece of the polar vortex was diving SE, and for a time nearly phased with the low coming up the coast. You can clearly see that on the upper air map. That would of produced one heck of a storm. Instead, they remained separate as the storm moved NE passed us. Something to watch for in future runs. Should be an interesting week, Ralph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I know its a 6z run of the GFS, but upon watching that run, a piece of the polar vortex was diving SE, and for a time nearly phased with the low coming up the coast. You can clearly see that on the upper air map. That would of produced one heck of a storm. Instead, they remained separate as the storm moved NE passed us. Something to watch for in future runs. Should be an interesting week, Ralph.As you alluded to we almost had a phase. The southern vort keeps coming in a little farther north on each run and closer to the northern stream thanks to the pv relaxing. Close but no cigar but we don't need a phase with this threat to bring a secs/mecs imo...the mjo will be in our favor if the timing is right and we can draw the southern energy farther north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Tidbits from the GFS run did show the weekend storm look better with the PV Actually trying to phase in somewhat. The EURO however has become less enthused so we will see in the next week few days about this weekend storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Ggem seemed to be coming on board as well last night. Had a huge 1048 hp diving south with hints of a phase on that model as well. We can make out even without a phase though if the pv retrogrades and the confluence ends up in a better spot it could pull the system north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm not talking about HECS. But I believe the block/PV retrograde and active STJ will support two phasing opportunities during the March 1-5 period, at least. The second southern stream wave appears stronger and better timing with the northern stream digging. It may also kick the first southern stream wave out. But that is still 7 days+ away. Beyond that, there may be more opportunities for winter storms. The GFS and Euro ensembles show -EPO/+PNA/-AO patterns, through 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm not talking about HECS. But I believe the block/PV retrograde and active STJ will support two phasing opportunities during the March 1-5 period, at least. The second southern stream wave appears stronger and better timing with the northern stream digging. It may also kick the first southern stream wave out. But that is still 7 days+ away. Beyond that, there may be more opportunities for winter storms. The GFS and Euro ensembles show -EPO/+PNA/-AO patterns, through 15 days. Miguel, do you think the +NAO will hurt out chances of a big phased storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 It seems like this year it should be reversed the NAM and EURO pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 It seems like this year it should be reversed the NAM and EURO pics. That's awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 It seems like this year it should be reversed the NAM and EURO pics. belongs in banter but good stuff :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hinyho Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 MJO moving into Phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 If some of the guidance is correct, we could see near record cold to start March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 It looks like the most worthwhile storm of the next few weeks could potentially be around day 11 or so as the split flow tries to phase. The PNA finally rebounds so the northern stream can dig enough to our west as the PV exits so the flow isn't suppressed. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif pna.sprd2.gif The 12z Euro ENS don't look bad around 192hr for 3/3 - 3/4 either. We might be watch several systems try to phase during the first 10 days of March: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 The 12z Euro ENS don't look bad around 192hr for 3/3 - 3/4 either. We might be watch several systems try to phase during the first 10 days of March: Yeah, the 192 hr potential looks like it could be better than Wednesday and Saturday since the PV finally gets out of the way and there is less suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 We'll end this winter with a fairly big one, probably on March 6-9th time frame with a Miller A. We need to wait on the Polar Vortex to move a little bit; then we can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I wouldn't count out the March 1st threat. Models for the most part been trending today for a less suppressive PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 We'll end this winter with a fairly big one, probably on March 6-9th time frame with a Miller A. We need to wait on the Polar Vortex to move a little bit; then we can get it. I wish it was that easy. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The long term section of the Upton AFD is just amazing considering the time of year. To summarize: Cold, then even colder, followed by even colder than that. Welcome to meteorological spring? THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN VERY COLD...WITH TEMPS MORETHAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND NOT GETTING MUCH ABOVE FREEZING ATBEST...AS THE PV GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO ANDQUEBEC. THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME CHANCESFOR SNOW MID WEEK AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR MID WEEK HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH...WITH A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEYTUE NIGHT...AND THEN PASSING OHD ON WED. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILLDEVELOP DOWNSTREAM IN RESPONSE TUE NIGHT ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONEALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...THEN INTENSIFY AND HEAD NE TO A POSITIONNOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF 40N/70W BY 18Z WED. THE OPERATIONAL 12ZGFS/GEFS/MEAN/ECMWF ARE ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR AND SUGGEST A MORESUPPRESSED SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WITH SOME 12ZGFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...THINK THERE IS STILLSOME WIGGLE ROOM FOR THE LOW TO TRACK UP TO 100 MILES FARTHERNORTH THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST...WHICH WOULD STILLBRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MOST AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC...AND AMODERATE SNOWFALL TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...FROM LATE TUENIGHT INTO MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON ON WED. WINDS DURING THE EVENTDO NOT LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE WED AFTERNOONNIGHT AS SNOW ENDS...USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR WITH LOW TEMPS INTHE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND 10-15 ALONG THE COAST...AND WINDCHILLS ZERO TO 5 BELOW BY THU MORNING.DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THEPERIOD AS AN REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU ANDMOVES THROUGH THU EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSUREBUILDING SE FROM CANADA. THE SITUATION THEREAFTER BECOMES MOREVOLATILE...WITH THE 12Z GFS PASSING A WEAK LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN MIDATLANTIC COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW...AND THE 12ZECMWF SUPPRESSING THIS LOW TO THE SE COAST AND INSTEAD DEVELOPING AMILLER B CYCLONE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST VIA A MORE AMPLIFIEDNRN STREAM. THIS LATTER IDEA IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE THE ECMWF HADBEEN TRENDING TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM SOLUTION IN THENORTHEAST. ALSO...NWP GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN SIGNALING POTENTIAL FORLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SE OR MID ATLANTIC COAST AT LEAST AS FARBACK AS MID FEBRUARY...WITH POTENTIAL TO TRACK FARTHER NORTH ANDBRING MORE LOCAL IMPACT THAN MODEL FCST. SO...WHILE IT IS TOO EARLYTO HANG OUR HAT ON ANY ONE SCENARIO...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT THEREIS A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON SAT.EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR LOOKS POISED TO MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...WITHSTRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND HIGHS BARELYGETTING ABOVE 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 0z GFS lost the 3/1 storm (for now) but there is a big storm brewing at 177 hrs over Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 At 192 hours the area has seen some overrunning snows and big storm to come after model goes to truncation...looks like it would get too warm eventually and most would flip. Too early obviously to worry about that, at least it's another potential event to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Both the GFS and the Euro to some extent have gotten progressively weaker/faster with the southern shortwave primarily responsible for the weekend threat. It's ok though, the MJO is entering phase 8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.