REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wasn't he talking about the Wednesday storm? Think he did know i was talking about the wednesday storm. The WEEKEND storm has alot of time to change one way or another so until we get to tuesday/wednesday they're is likely not going to be an idea with what to expect from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wasn't he talking about the Wednesday storm?Think we all are on board for Wednesday .I was speaking about the weekend threat from all the other posts. Wasn't directing at him. But saying looking at OPruns will never give you a full picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I think folks may be doing themselves a disservice by incessantly reassuring themselves that "anything could happen", etc., and big storms are possible. Right now no guidance shows anything in the way of a big storm in the near future; indeed, with a rapid zonal flow and a monster lobe of the PV almost overhead, the default is probably for no significant storms to occur. I don't advise throwing in the towel, but in that same vein, excitement should probably be at average levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The past several runs of the GFS have shown us on the western side of a broad trough. I haven't seen the EURO, but the GFS has pretty stable with south and OTS for many runs now for the wed system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Anything on the 3/1 storm on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Anything on the 3/1 storm on the Euro?better idea when the ensembles come out imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Gfs gets precip up to south jersey and the del mar va on saturday. Its coming....plenty of waa and mjo looks great. Need the pv to pull out or continue to trend towards a split ala bds. I'm confident this will continue to trend favorable and affect the entire EC in some fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Gfs gets precip up to south jersey and the del mar va on saturday. Its coming....plenty of waa and mjo looks great. Need the pv to pull out or continue to trend towards a split ala bds. I'm confident this will continue to trend favorable and affect the entire EC in some fashion. GFS isn't out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 GFS isn't out yet12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 What did the EURO ensembles have to say regarding the weekend threat? Any signs of improvements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z GFS has 2 lows for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z GFS has 2 lows for next weekend. yea its what you call out to lunch. to GFS is notoriously poor in mid-long range with southern stream driven systems. The fact that is still showing something and the EURO attempted to split the PV looked good for me today. still a ways out but there were "slight" improvements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Lol, the GFS gets energy from three different places wrt the March 1 ordeal. I like it; best look we've seen on that threat in two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The gfs is looking more interesting for sure. This will be our MECS/HECS 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Euro ens anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The gfs is looking more interesting for sure. This will be our MECS/HECS 100%. on board with ralph wiggum I take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 on board with ralph wiggum I take it? Yup, all in on this. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The gfs is looking more interesting for sure. This will be our MECS/HECS 100%. What a reasonable and well-founded call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 What a reasonable and well-founded call. its a DT type call. we have wiggum/sno-ski now. the support is growing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 What a reasonable and well-founded call. The MJO strongly going into phase 8/1 is all I need to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The MJO strongly going into phase 8/1 is all I need to see. Yea? That's it? Phases 8/1 =MECS/HECS 100%? This board is unreal lately lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The MJO strongly going into phase 8/1 is all I need to see.what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 what? theres enthusiasm and there's weenie-ism with wishcasting. think we all know what that was...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Phase 8 MJO in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 RGEM @ 48 hours would argue a nice hit down the road for the midweek storm....FWIW https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Yea? That's it? Phases 8/1 =MECS/HECS 100%? This board is unreal lately lol. Yep that's it, if people are going to be negative about next week then why not be the opposite. By seriously there are continued signs at a major storm, the combination of an excellent PNA ridge coupled with the very favorable MJO progression strongly hints at this. We're also seeing signs of some high latitude blocking and we're in a time frame where the wave lengths are very different than January (suppression would be more likely). If you can give me a couple of well supported reasons as to why a major storm can't happen then I'd be willing to concede. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The MJO is going to be very favorable. Nothing is 100% but it will increase our chances of snow (We already know the cold is coming) RGEM @ 48 hours would argue a nice hit down the road for the midweek storm....FWIW https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Tough to tell, but the euro has shown a hit for 3 straight runs. I will be surprised to see it cave to the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Yep that's it, if people are going to be negative about next week then why not be the opposite. By seriously there are continued signs at a major storm, the combination of an excellent PNA ridge coupled with the very favorable MJO progression strongly hints at this. We're also seeing signs of some high latitude blocking and we're in a time frame where the wave lengths are very different than January (suppression would be more likely). If you can give me a couple of well supported reasons as to why a major storm can't happen then I'd be willing to concede. as I stated earlier you can have downright amazing teleconnectors but that only gets you so far. the downstream/upstream effects of S/W's in the flow play just as much an important part. next weekend's system whether we all like to admit or not CAN produce those extreme solutions the EURO was showing. To attain that solution we saw what had to go right to get there, new nuances are popping up that are keeping this threat currently just S&E but the 12z did show some PV splitting and that is the right direction. lets come back to this Monday and see what is there and start seriously looking at this come Tuesday/Wednesday. I will start a thread for the weekend storm Monday to get the ball rolling whether it happens or not to keep the discussion in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 At 144 hours the gfs is retrograding the pv into greenland allowing for more room for the potential southern system to come north imo. Big signal there...lets see if the other models follow up with this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The GFS still looks mediocre for the weekend threat. The source energy looked more potent translating across the west, but it never really amplified, so it got sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.