Weathergun Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 NO... If this is a tease and them showing something noteworthy spill the beans already home slice more importantly what do the features on the ENS. Look like to give it that solution ralph? I mentioned above it showed some precip for us: The Euro ens mean do show some precip in the area, with the March 1st low going off the SE coast. There's strong 200mb jet streak running to N&W, that might cause precip show expanded further west, even if we don't get a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 NO... If this is a tease and them showing something noteworthy spill the beans already home slice more importantly what do the features on the ENS. Look like to give it that solution ralph?several members with a coastal solution. Several darn close. And a handful a miss BUT the f act they are jumping back to a possible coastal solution is damn encouraging. Pv is split and in a much better position. The split reminds me of bds which allowed said system to come north. Atlantic still looks fast but not terrible with some blocking evident. Pna looks good but I can't make out on the coastal tracks whether we have a full phase or the confluence is what is pulling the slp north. More later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Too bad GFS and NAM (yeah I know out side it's range) show nothing but a suppressed OTS pile of garbage for wed and weekend (just GFS obviously). Still a ways to go so I won't give up hope, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I mentioned above it showed some precip for us:good post, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 several members with a coastal solution. Several darn close. And a handful a miss BUT the f act they are jumping back to a possible coastal solution is damn encouraging. Pv is split and in a much better position. The split reminds me of bds which allowed said system to come north. Atlantic still looks fast but not terrible with some blocking evident. Pna looks good but I can't make out on the coastal tracks whether we have a full phase or the confluence is what is pulling the slp north. More later. Bottom line out best model for southern stream systems is still seeing some great potential and some nice setups so we'll keep that in our mind as the weekend and beginning of the week progresses ralph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Bottom line out best model for southern stream systems is still seeing some great potential and some nice setups so we'll keep that in our mind as the weekend and beginning of the week progresses ralph.I'm all in for the mid week system but its looking like it is on life support attm. I'm confident it will change however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 the 12Z euro will be a big hit trust me this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 The Euro ens mean do show some precip in the area, with the March 1st low going off the SE coast. There's strong 200mb jet streak running to N&W, that might cause precip show expanded further west, even if we don't get a phase. Reminds me of GEFS P002 with more high ratio snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It would be a shame if the weekend storm turns up ots. Although it wouldn't take much tinkering to bring this monster up the coast. We just need the pv to retrograde or split, and the pac energy to slow down to allow for maximum amplitude. If those two things were to occur, we would start to see those extreme runs the EURO was showing a few days ago. I think I just got Ralph's attention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 It would be a shame if the weekend storm turns up ots. Although it wouldn't take much tinkering to bring this monster up the coast. We just need the pv to retrograde or split, and the pac energy to slow down to allow for maximum amplitude. If those two things were to occur, we would start to see those extreme runs the EURO was showing a few days ago. I think I just got Ralph's attention! Teleconnector wise it has more legs than the media hyped EPIC blizzard that failed a few weeks ago. Currently the EURO ensembles did show some PV split to a degree but we also have to watch what wednesday storm will do and also the PAC storm coming onshore doesnt kick the heights down in the atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 MJO from the GEFS. Love the look of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 ^^^^ Another great look Here is the projected PNA for the 1st week of March. Combine that with a great MJO signal and you will know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 The Euro weeklies are on the same page for March as the JMA with below normal temps for our third month in a row with colder than normal conditions. It would be our first JFM below normal since 1996. So even if we can't catch 1996, we should be good for at least second place ahead of 1947-1948. 75.6 1995-96 63.2 1947-48 http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/02/20/long-range-outlook/ http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 ^^^^ Another great look Here is the projected PNA for the 1st week of March. Combine that with a great MJO signal and you will know what will happen. Big storm signal for sure! Looks like we're going to be all sleep deprived in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Big storm signal for sure! Looks like we're going to be all sleep deprived in the coming days. We can have great teleconnectors but still get screwed though, these arent gauranteed. The weekend storm has many factors going into to make it an extreme storm was showing it to be a few days, in the days leading into thursday clarity should be brought as to what these players will do preceeding the weekend event. Right now lets focus on mid week as after that its going to be a big look into the weekend and beyond for some big snowstorm opportunities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 the 12Z euro will be a big hit trust me this afternoon Just because Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 We can have great teleconnectors but still get screwed though, these arent gauranteed. The weekend storm has many factors going into to make it an extreme storm was showing it to be a few days, in the days leading into thursday clarity should be brought as to what these players will do preceeding the weekend event. Right now lets focus on mid week as after that its going to be a big look into the weekend and beyond for some big snowstorm opportunities Yes, you do have a valid point. The mid week storm should not be overlooked; its actually been trending stronger, and if everything falls into place, would be a SECS or stronger. After the storm departs, like you said the weekend threat will become much clearer. My point is even if the weekend threat goes ots, I can see a scenario unfolding where we get a major storm shortly thereafter. Kind of like what happened earlier this month with the media blizzard missing us, only to get slammed by a storm 4 days later. My point is, the teleconnections just screams for something big to occur within the next couple of weeks. Doesn't necessarily has to be the weekend threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Just because Weenie optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yes, you do have a valid point. The mid week storm should not be overlooked; its actually been trending stronger, and if everything falls into place, would be a SECS or stronger. After the storm departs, like you said the weekend threat will become much clearer. My point is even if the weekend threat goes ots, I can see a scenario unfolding where we get a major storm shortly thereafter. Kind of like what happened earlier this month with the media blizzard missing us, only to get slammed by a storm 4 days later. My point is, the teleconnections just screams for something big to occur within the next couple of weeks. Doesn't necessarily has to be the weekend threat.Yes kind of what JB said a few weeks ago the pattern we're in is " if this one misses you the next one may get you or the next one" we're not going to be lacking any big storm threats for the near future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yes kind of what JB said a few weeks ago the pattern we're in is " if this one misses you the next one may get you or the next one" we're not going to be lacking any big storm threats for the near future This winter has been a joy ride for sure. Lot's of hits and misses galore. I don't know if its the inner weenie in me talking, but I just got this impending feeling we got a big time storm coming up in the not so distant future. All winter long we've been getting storm after storm with mediocre at best teleconnections. Now with the pattern shaping up in a more dynamic mode, That raises a big flag in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 This winter has already been etched in stone to be talked for generations no doubt . The economic fallout is hurricane level cost of doing business with ole man winter .J.B has a great poker face for these winters and Joe de'leo has had a big impact on his flock,spot on accessment of the damage to infastructure by weatherbell.The late rounds of a mauling and the referee has not stopped the fight looks like another right hook coming to the jaw for a good part of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 This winter has been a joy ride for sure. Lot's of hits and misses galore. I don't know if its the inner weenie in me talking, but I just got this impending feeling we got a big time storm coming up in the not so distant future. All winter long we've been getting storm after storm with mediocre at best teleconnections. Now with the pattern shaping up in a more dynamic mode, That raises a big flag in my opinion. Im thinking the same as well. A BIG event that would solidify this winters records in history would only be fitting with what we've experienced and i think these upcoming 7-14 days have a better than average shot at doing just that. Who knows maybe march 01' saved itself for this year instead? We wont know till the final snowflake has fallen on this memorable winter of 2013-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Please don't get me started on march 01'. I've had heartbreaks along the way, but that storm takes the cake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Please don't get me started on march 01'. I've had heartbreaks along the way, but that storm takes the cake! I meant maybe we'd get the March 01' we were suppose to have and not get screwed. You get that feeling this is going to be a textbook bookend winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 What is all this talk about midweek storm trending stronger? Run after run it is looking OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 What is all this talk about midweek storm trending stronger? Run after run it is looking OTS You can't obsess over every model run. Instead look at the overall pattern to determine what's going on. Also the Euro shows a nice hit and it's been doing very well for weeks now. A strong amplified pattern strongly favors storminess as well as the MJO progression. Gfs frequently shows a storm in the longer range only to lose it and bring it back as you get closer so I'm not concerned. Midweek could only be the beginning and I'm seeing signs of bigger and better things beyond that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 What is all this talk about midweek storm trending stronger? Run after run it is looking OTS EURO is consistently showing it on the OP and ENS. Mean. Its a legit threat that argues to be more potent and closer to the coast then advertised by the american models. After that its cloudy right now as to what is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 EURO is consistently showing it on the OP and ENS. Mean. Its a legit threat that argues to be more potent and closer to the coast then advertised by the american models. After that its cloudy right now as to what is going to happen The Euro ensembles are south and east. They are not close at this point. This talk of a weekend storm is due to 2 op runs 10 days out and people just don't get that stuff is not a viable threat that far. Just because u see a day 10 threat does not make it a " viable " threat. We'd is our storm. As far as I am concerned there is no weekend threat until the ensembles tell me there's one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 The Euro ensembles are south and east. They are not close at this point. This talk of a weekend storm is due to 2 op runs 10 days out and people just don't get that stuff is not a viable threat that far. Just because u see a day 10 threat does not make it a " viable " threat. We'd is our storm. As far as I am concerned there is no weekend threat until the ensembles tell me there's one. Wasn't he talking about the Wednesday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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