Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues

[donsutherland1]

Oldest temperature record in NYC CPK almanac in danger? On March 01, 1869 a low of +4 was recorded during the first year of official record keeping. Single digits are possible 2/27-3/02 with a ridiculous -21C +/-4C 850's and near 510dm +/-10dm. thickness nearby. If these temps. are not realized might not our 2/28 storm come back as a consolation prize?

While single digits might be possible, I highly doubt that the 3/1 record will fall. The record is really about as extreme as it gets. Only once since 1869 was there a reading at least as cold in March: 3° on March 5, 1872.

 

FWIW, the last single-digit reading in NYC in March occurred on March 19, 1967 when the temperature fell to 8°.

[Sn0waddict]

I would love to run this back to the LIA and see if it has been done before.But the recent frequency of

heavy snowstorms makes me think that it's at least possible that this is a first since the Dutch arrived.

 

nysnow.gif

Geez that map really shows how bad the 70's & 80's were.

[bluewave]

Geez that map really shows how bad the 70's & 80's were.

 

The 70's can really be narrowed down to the great run of snow in 1978 and the President's Day storm in February 1979. The

80's memorable storms for me were the April 82 thunderblizzard, February 1983, and January 1987. I missed out on the

surprise 12-13-88 nurlun which impacted Western Suffolk. Then there was more snow drought into the

early 90's before March 1993 and winter 1994 and 1996. I had no idea after the non winter of 2001-2002 that

such great winters were was coming right around the corner. 

[Yanksfan]

The weekend storm which the models are struggling with will affect the entire east coast in one form or another....mark my words. The teleconnections are screaming in my ear.

You got that right, Ralph. Pattern is ripe for a big storm. As I stated earlier, patterns tend to repeat themselves over the course of the season; some like to call it the wash-rinse@repeat. This year storms have been trending stronger / more NW over time… and that's with average to poor teleconnections! Now we have arguably the best dynamic pattern coming up. I'm not saying that the weekend threat will be the "big one", in the end it may be. That being said, I would be surprised if this up coming pattern doesn't produce at least a MECS.

[Ralph Wiggum]

18z gfs is really close to a phase and coming up the coast with the late weekend storm except the gfs just squashes the powerful southern vortmax...just dissipates it completely. Makes no sense to me...the flow isn't even that fast imo.

[REDMK6GLI]

18z gfs is really close to a phase and coming up the coast with the late weekend storm except the gfs just squashes the powerful southern vortmax...just dissipates it completely. Makes no sense to me...the flow isn't even that fast imo.

It is fairly fast on the atlantic side ralph but this is the 18z model that is known to be different to say the least then the rest of the model suites....coming back to this threat tuesday/ wednesday buddy

[Guest Pamela]

I would love to run this back to the LIA and see if it has been done before.But the recent frequency of

heavy snowstorms makes me think that it's at least possible that this is a first since the Dutch arrived.

 

nysnow.gif

The Dutch arrived more than 250 years before the Central Park record got underway...records are very spotty from before the Civil War...generally limited to the diaries of ministers & scientists...Ludlum did a great job piecing together Early American Winters...but, obviously...there are a lot of gaps regarding everything that went on back then.

[Guest Pamela]

IDK...a guy named William Whitehead kept records in Newark and had a mean annual snowfall of 43.8 inches from 1843 - 1870...probably 14 inches better than the present day mean.

[uncle W]

pre Central Park monthly and annual temperatures...

monthly and average temperature from 1822-1868...
1836 is the coldest year...December 1831 January 1857 and February 1836 are the coldest for those months...July 1825 was very warm...It was only nine years after the year without a Summer...
year.....Jan..Feb..Mar..Apr..May.June July..Aug..Sep..Oct..Nov..Dec..Annual
1822..26.2 29.8 42.1 52.4 63.4 70.6 78.4 74.6 70.9 59.1 48.4 34.5 54.2
1823..31.2 25.3 36.4 49.6 59.8 68.9 74.9 73.4 64.1 51.8 38.2 34.7 50.5
1824..35.3 31.3 37.6 49.9 58.0 68.3 73.6 70.4 64.1 55.1 42.7 38.5 52.1
1825..32.7 32.6 43.7 51.3 62.5 74.6 81.3 74.0 67.4 57.1 43.9 31.7 54.4
1826..28.9 31.3 37.7 43.3 64.9 69.8 75.9 75.9 68.8 56.5 43.7 33.1 52.5
1827..24.0 31.9 39.3 52.1 59.5 68.6 75.6 74.3 67.1 55.9 39.7 33.2 52.5
1828..33.6 41.3 40.7 45.3 60.1 72.2 74.7 76.5 66.8 53.4 44.9 38.7 54.0
1829..27.1 25.4 37.9 52.3 63.8 71.1 73.7 75.0 64.1 54.8 43.9 41.3 52.5

1830..31.7 31.9 41.1 52.9 60.3 70.4 78.7 77.1 67.1 58.7 51.1 36.9 54.8
1831..25.7 26.3 42.0 50.0 61.2 74.1 76.4 76.4 66.9 55.4 43.3 22.2 51.6
1832..28.5 32.3 39.0 48.3 56.1 67.1 73.3 73.2 65.4 54.1 44.7 36.4 51.5
1833..35.1 30.9 35.9 51.3 60.7 66.1 74.7 70.6 64.8 52.2 41.5 34.6 51.5
1834..28.3 37.2 39.6 48.5 56.5 66.7 76.2 71.8 64.2 51.6 41.0 30.7 51.0
1835..29.4 27.2 35.6 45.6 58.4 67.1 72.5 69.8 60.7 56.4 43.8 28.4 49.6
1836..27.8 21.5 32.2 44.3 58.0 62.3 73.0 67.9 64.0 45.8 38.7 31.2 47.6
1837..26.3 29.8 34.9 46.0 55.3 64.5 69.5 68.6 62.2 52.9 44.0 35.6 49.1
1838..34.5 23.3 37.8 44.2 56.2 70.4 77.2 77.4 65.4 51.7 40.0 29.1 50.3
1839..30.5 31.9 38.6 49.8 57.8 63.4 73.0 70.8 66.7 56.3 39.9 35.6 51.2

1840..23.8 34.8 40.3 51.5 58.8 67.0 72.3 73.3 64.0 55.2 43.6 30.3 51.2
1841..30.8 28.1 37.4 46.0 56.5 69.1 73.9 73.4 68.6 51.8 44.9 33.8 51.2
1842..33.7 38.1 44.6 51.5 58.5 67.2 74.4 72.9 67.1 51.7 39.2 32.1 53.4
1843..36.5 25.7 30.3 47.3 59.1 71.2 74.1 74.3 68.0 53.7 40.5 36.1 51.4
1844..25.7 29.7 38.8 53.5 63.3 69.2 74.5 72.9 65.8 53.5 43.3 34.0 52.0
1845..35.0 31.9 42.1 50.8 60.5 71.3 76.6 76.0 65.5 55.3 45.7 38.3 53.3
1846..31.4 27.4 39.3 50.3 60.4 67.4 72.2 73.2 69.7 54.0 48.1 33.9 52.3
1847..32.4 31.6 36.0 49.5 59.5 70.8 75.6 72.3 64.7 51.4 46.0 37.9 52.3
1848..33.8 31.2 36.1 50.1 61.4 69.1 74.3 73.5 63.4 54.1 39.7 39.3 52.3
1849..25.8 24.7 37.8 47.5 55.0 69.5 72.8 72.3 64.3 52.6 48.2 32.1 50.2

1850..32.8 33.4 36.2 44.1 54.4 68.6 75.1 71.0 64.3 53.8 45.2 33.2 50.9
1851..32.1 33.7 39.7 49.1 58.2 68.4 75.6 74.0 69.7 57.3 42.2 37.4 52.1
1852..24.3 30.7 36.7 43.7 60.3 69.7 76.6 73.3 63.8 55.6 46.1 40.4 51.4
1853..32.1 32.5 39.6 48.1 60.2 71.2 72.8 73.5 66.4 52.0 44.3 33.1 52.2
1854..28.7 28.2 36.2 45.1 59.9 68.5 75.9 72.9 66.4 55.7 43.7 27.5 50.7
1855..31.2 23.9 36.0 46.6 58.6 68.1 75.6 70.6 65.6 53.3 44.6 34.7 50.7
1856..21.9 23.9 30.8 49.9 57.6 71.1 74.6 71.7 66.7 51.5 42.6 37.6 50.0
1857..19.6 34.5 35.3 43.3 58.2 68.7 74.0 72.7 64.8 53.3 42.5 36.9 50.0
1858..35.3 24.5 35.0 47.9 56.1 72.3 74.6 71.7 65.4 56.6 40.1 32.9 51.0
1859..24.5 33.1 43.9 48.3 61.0 67.3 73.2 72.6 63.8 50.5 45.4 30.0 51.4

1860..30.1 29.0 41.1 47.3 59.7 70.1 74.4 73.8 64.1 55.6 46.1 30.8 51.9
1861..28.9 35.5 37.5 49.9 56.6 70.2 74.6 72.1 66.9 59.6 43.9 34.8 52.7
1862..29.4 30.0 36.9 47.7 61.0 68.3 74.1 74.4 67.9 57.6 44.1 33.8 52.1
1863..34.2 31.4 33.6 48.2 61.8 67.2 76.5 76.8 63.3 55.1 46.6 32.8 52.3
1864..30.4 32.6 38.3 47.7 63.2 70.0 74.1 76.2 63.8 54.1 46.1 35.9 52.7
1865..24.7 30.9 43.3 52.4 61.3 73.9 75.4 72.9 71.1 54.2 45.9 37.2 53.6
1866..27.5 31.5 37.5 51.2 58.4 70.2 78.6 69.4 67.5 56.5 46.2 33.2 52.6
1867..24.2 37.3 36.3 49.7 56.7 69.5 73.3 73.9 66.6 55.5 44.2 28.5 51.1
1868..25.4 22.5 37.2 44.8 55.9 68.1 78.4 75.1 66.5 52.4 43.4 29.4 50.0

[MJO812]

Euro still has the storm in the south for this weekend. One storm at a time.

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro has low temps near 5F on the morning of the 27th thats basically record levels for most of the NYC stations

[Doorman]

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_conus.gif

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif

 

[EasternLI]

GEFS continue with a cold-ish look right to the end, looks cold-ish to me anyway. Regardless, its fantasy range, but it doesn't look warm

[BoulderWX]

ov.gif

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_conus.gif

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif

 

snapcast.gif

would seem like all systems go for a light/moderate event in the wednesday timeframe...

[Ralph Wiggum]

Ggem looks like it will be on board for the weekend system. Has 2 pieces of energy coming thru...first one takes a slp from hatteras barely ots. Second piece is just outta range. Better trends. Will check back on this threat more seriously once we get past the early week threats. For now its merely noise however I do believe a secs/mecs is on the table still. More later.

[Yanksfan]

Ggem looks like it will be on board for the weekend system. Has 2 pieces of energy coming thru...first one takes a slp from hatteras barely ots. Second piece is just outta range. Better trends. Will check back on this threat more seriously once we get past the early week threats. For now its merely noise however I do believe a secs/mecs is on the table still. More later.

I agree. Let the mid week storm play out first. Too many moving parts on the playing field for the models to digest right now. Although I do think this weekend threat has potential.

[REDMK6GLI]

I agree. Let the mid week storm play out first. Too many moving parts on the playing field for the models to digest right now. Although I do think this weekend threat has potential.

One thing and it is a negative for the weekend storm, paul touched on this yesterday is the system crashing into the pacific. "As progged" regardless of great teleconnectors that could alter the PAC ridge enough to not allow ample amplification along the EC next weekend for a big snowstorm. Its 7 days off so it will likely be changed but this is something to keep in your mind, teleconnectors can only do so much, inner workings of the flow is just as import as well in the US

[bluewave]

Ggem looks like it will be on board for the weekend system. Has 2 pieces of energy coming thru...first one takes a slp from hatteras barely ots. Second piece is just outta range. Better trends. Will check back on this threat more seriously once we get past the early week threats. For now its merely noise however I do believe a secs/mecs is on the table still. More later.

 

The blocking looks great, but the current modeled PV evolution is still too suppressive. So we would need to see changes

down the road to get the storm further north. It's also possible that the storm coming into California

may be acting as a kicker to some extent knocking down heights out west. POO2 is trying to get the

PV out of the way in time but it's still a near miss. So the PV evolution and western pattern will be

interesting to monitor the next week.

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

The blocking looks great, but the current modeled PV evolution is still too suppressive. So we would need to see changes

down the road to get the storm further north. It's also possible that the storm coming into California

may be acting as a kicker to some extent knocking down heights out west. POO2 is trying to get the

PV out of the way in time but it's still a near miss. So the PV evolution and western pattern will be

interesting to monitor the next week.

 

f168.gif

 

f180.gif

This is why I really like WED system. I like the ridge axis and euro control is wetter and closer to the coast.

I think WED will trend better.

[REDMK6GLI]

This is why I really like WED system. I like the ridge axis and euro control is wetter and closer to the coast.

I think WED will trend better.

With you on the this. The EURO ensembles have been trending more aggressive with this and may very well be the bigger one when compared to the weekend southern storm. Weekend storm has MANY more moving pieces to get to come together than the WED threat. Not going to sleep on weekend but to me its not looking like the best setup preceeding it currently modeled

[Weathergun]

The Euro ens mean do show some precip in the area, with the March 1st low going off the SE coast. There's strong 200mb jet streak running to N&W, that might cause precip show expanded further west, even if we don't get a phase.

[bluewave]

This is why I really like WED system. I like the ridge axis and euro control is wetter and closer to the coast.

I think WED will trend better.

 

Yeah, the WED system resembles others this year that trended better within 120 hrs and we'll

see how it leaves the pattern after for the next system. That's why I really like to do just

one storm at a time. If the WED system gets amped enough, we could see NYC dip to

around 10 degrees or a little lower right behind it.

[REDMK6GLI]

Yeah, the WED system resembles others this year that trended better within 120 hrs.

Wednesday system i feel confident will be atleast a warning wide event.

Three things im looking at for the weekend storm the next few several days:

1) PV orientation

2)PAC system coming into the US

3)Upstream effects the wednesday system will have on the atlantic side for the weekend system

[bluewave]

Wednesday system i feel confident will be atleast a warning wide event.

Three things im looking at for the weekend storm the next few several days:

1) PV orientation

2)PAC system coming into the US

3)Upstream effects the wednesday system will have on the atlantic side for the weekend system

 

We could go 12:15-1 since the -10c 850 line runs right through area on 0z Euro on Wednesday.

[EasternLI]

AFD from BOX for midweek, sums it up pretty well -

 

AS FOR POTENTIAL MID WEEK WEEK SYSTEM...00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
STRONGER WITH 989 MB LOW NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 18Z WED AND UP
TO 0.50 INCH OF QPF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE 00Z GFS
OFFERS CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AN INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND WED. THE 00Z GEFS AND
ECENS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER BUT STILL LOTS OF SPREAD AMONG ALL
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS TO ADDRESS
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. HOWEVER FORECAST
INTUITION/PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST HEDGING TOWARD STRONGER
SOLUTIONS GIVEN HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND POLAR ORIGINS OF JET
ENERGY.

[NEG NAO]

We could go 12:15-1 since the -10c 850 line runs right through area on 0z Euro on Wednesday.

here is the thread for the wednesday 2/26 system

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42976-2262014-potential-snowstorm/

[Ralph Wiggum]

Wednesday system i feel confident will be atleast a warning wide event.

Three things im looking at for the weekend storm the next few several days:

1) PV orientation

2)PAC system coming into the US

3)Upstream effects the wednesday system will have on the atlantic side for the weekend system

I'm all in for the wed system. Looks like a classic warning level system even down here. Could set the stage for the weekend. One storm at a time ;-)

[PB GFI]

We could go 12:15-1 since the -10c 850 line runs right through area on 0z Euro on Wednesday.

I agree. I like that the 850s get colder so In my opinion the 700 mb should look good as well

[Ralph Wiggum]

Anyone see the euro ens for next weekend?

[REDMK6GLI]

Anyone see the euro ens for next weekend?

NO... If this is a tease and them showing something noteworthy spill the beans already home slice more importantly what do the features on the ENS. Look like to give it that solution ralph?