Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 No big storm for next weekend on the GFS. Too many vorts for the models to figure out which one to focus on. we can still do well with these smaller vorts rounding the base of the PV/Cold air dome. As the GFS shows today, alot of minor to moderate events possible. STJ also gets active towards the end of the week. Pattern's loaded with potential even if we don't see a HECS or MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 This is precisely why nobody should ever take a day ten storm or even pattern seriously, even if the Euro is the one showing it. I do believe we'll get a big one out of the first week of March but we might have to be more patient. The good news is that the middle of next week looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 This is precisely why nobody should ever take a day ten storm or even pattern seriously, even if the Euro is the one showing it. I do believe we'll get a big one out of the first week of March but we might have to be more patient. The good news is that the middle of next week looks promising. The GFS looks really promising. The subtropical jet is pumping on the GFS. Combine that with the cold air and bam. Like you said, I think we have to be patient if we want a huge storm. Next week has the looks of a SECS/MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The GFS looks really promising. The subtropical jet is pumping on the GFS. Combine that with the cold air and bam. Like you said, I think we have to be patient if we want a huge storm. Next week has the looks of a SECS/MECS. If we could get the PV a little further west for mid-week that could draw the coastal closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The GFS has lows below 5 in NYC for 3 days. Damn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 We get another shot of the PV around the end of next week before the entire country begins to moderate around the 8-10th of March. Above freezing 850mb temps get well up into northern Canada and the PV retreats way up to near Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 We get another shot of the PV around the end of next week before the entire country begins to moderate around the 8-10th of March. Above freezing 850mb temps get well up into northern Canada and the PV retreats way up to near Greenland.Im starting to kind of go with what your saying in correlation to this. An archambault event to break the cold regime and i think starting next week into next week is when we'll actually see the possibility of a large snowstorm on the EC increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 35 below Grand Forks , the press East will rival anything this year at KNYC if there`s deep snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 We get another shot of the PV around the end of next week before the entire country begins to moderate around the 8-10th of March. Above freezing 850mb temps get well up into northern Canada and the PV retreats way up to near Greenland. It's really difficult to say we fully moderate by then as that's beyond 300 hrs and seasonal models and weeklies say we stay cold for the month of March. I'm sure we'll moderate eventually, but it could be a transient period between cold and warm with the outcome favoring below normal rather than above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 For those interested the 12z EURO does bring back the weekend storm but shunts OTS. It is still there, looks like we'll be coming back to this threat monday/tuesday while we're tracking the wednesday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 For those interested the 12z EURO does bring back the weekend storm but shunts OTS. It is still there, looks like we'll be coming back to this threat monday/tuesday while we're tracking the wednesday system I hate to say this but looking at that storm if the ECM ends up going back to its prior solutions ...this storm has the looks that would break records... Lets see how this plays out in the coming days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I hate to say this but looking at that storm if the ECM ends up going back to its prior solutions ...this storm has the looks that would break records... Lets see how this plays out in the coming days!Any storm from next weekend on has the "POTENTIAL" to be pretty damn big snowstorm for the EC. Lets get to tuesday and the wednesday storm before honking at the "wiggum storm" ( he put his name on it ) better than henry maguisity storm then it would be a storm for the caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Powerhouse troughs one after another at the far reaches of the 12z Euro run. Some pretty macho energy behind the wayward Wiggum storm, but a lot of work needed for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 i am convinced that these weather boards (not just american) have bi polar like tendencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 We don't even need that big of an event here to make history with two 60"+ seasons in 3 years and we already set the record with three 50"+ seasons in 4 years at Central Park. NYC is currently at 57.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 We don't even need that big of an event here to make history with two 60"+ seasons in 3 years and we already set the record with three 50"+ seasons in 4 years at Central Park. NYC is currently at 57.1" Feel confident wednesday will tip 60", beyond that its a crap shoot ( besides the wiggum storm 3/1 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 if you want big totals with the atlantic flow so fast you have to hope for a strong system to thread the needle. otherwise it will be multiple weak waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 if you want big totals with the atlantic flow so fast you have to hope for a strong system to thread the needle. otherwise it will be multiple weak waves Your absolutely right. We need a Miller A to bomb out and negative tilt at the right time a la 3/1 to get big widespread totals. I mean we've done great with what we've gotten this year. The 3/1 threat would be just that, a wound up Miller A that "could" dump on a large area on the EC. Whether it happens or not is still wayyyyy up in the air. A transient block, 50/50, PNA spike and a nice bowling ball would be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Feel confident wednesday will tip 60", beyond that its a crap shoot ( besides the wiggum storm 3/1 ) I would love to run this back to the LIA and see if it has been done before.But the recent frequency of heavy snowstorms makes me think that it's at least possible that this is a first since the Dutch arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I would love to run this back to the LIA and see if it has been done before. nysnow.gif We've been quite spoiled in the 2000's with KU events. Further i look into the 80's we really didnt have bad setups sometimes just bad timing. This run we've been on more often than not if the pieces are there they find a way to make it come together on the EC, prime example; this winter chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 if you want big totals with the atlantic flow so fast you have to hope for a strong system to thread the needle. otherwise it will be multiple weak waves We just did, the 2/13-14 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 You don`t turn the corner with that crashing into the west coast . The Ensembles and the Control are well south and east . Look for Wed to improve with a nice ridge axis out west before you worry about next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 You don`t turn the corner with that crashing into the west coast . The Ensembles and the Control are well south and east . Look for Wed to improve with a nice ridge axis out west before you worry about next weekend. that might actually be the storm to watch (The one crashing into the West Coast) vs next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Wednesday is a much more conducive set up as progged than the D8+ ghost right now. Strong -EPO block over AK, PNA ridge axis near the classic Boise ID location, departing 50/50 low, height rises poking southward in Greenland, and PV near the SW shore of Hudson's Bay. Slightly more separation b/t the PV and 50-50 low will allow heights to rise along the SE US coast and the incoming short wave to move further north. There's room for a trend closer to the coast with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 that might actually be the storm to watch (The one crashing into the West Coast) vs next weekend. The ensembles want to take that to the EC around the 5th . I`m not sleeping on Monday yet , and I think Wed is no slouch . So all that other stuff is just too far for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The weekend storm which the models are struggling with will affect the entire east coast in one form or another....mark my words. The teleconnections are screaming in my ear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Wednesday is a much more conducive set up as progged than the D8+ ghost right now. Strong -EPO block over AK, PNA ridge axis near the classic Boise ID location, departing 50/50 low, height rises poking southward in Greenland, and PV near the SW shore of Hudson's Bay. Slightly more separation b/t the PV and 50-50 low will allow heights to rise along the SE US coast and the incoming short wave to move further north. There's room for a trend closer to the coast with that one. Yeah, we just need another under 120 hr NW creep with 12-15:1 rations along the -10C 850 line nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The weekend storm which the models are struggling with will affect the entire east coast in one form or another....mark my words. The teleconnections are screaming in my ear. Bang that drum ralph wiggum! Your really putting your head on the chopping block my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Oldest temperature record in NYC CPK almanac in danger? On March 01, 1869 a low of +4 was recorded during the first year of official record keeping. Single digits are possible 2/27-3/02 with a ridiculous -21C +/-4C 850's and near 510dm +/-10dm. thickness nearby. If these temps. are not realized might not our 2/28 storm come back as a consolation prize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The weekend storm which the models are struggling with will affect the entire east coast in one form or another....mark my words. The teleconnections are screaming in my ear. Cirrus clouds from Georgia to Cape Cod! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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