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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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No big storm for next weekend on the GFS. Too many vorts for the models to figure out which one to focus on.

we can still do well with these smaller vorts rounding the base of the PV/Cold air dome.   As the GFS shows today, alot of minor to moderate events possible.   STJ also gets active towards the end of the week. Pattern's loaded with potential even if we don't see a HECS or MECS

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This is precisely why nobody should ever take a day ten storm or even pattern seriously, even if the Euro is the one showing it.

 

I do believe we'll get a big one out of the first week of March but we might have to be more patient.

 

The good news is that the middle of next week looks promising.

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This is precisely why nobody should ever take a day ten storm or even pattern seriously, even if the Euro is the one showing it.

 

I do believe we'll get a big one out of the first week of March but we might have to be more patient.

 

The good news is that the middle of next week looks promising.

The GFS looks really promising. The subtropical jet is pumping on the GFS. Combine that with the cold air and bam. Like you said, I think we have to be patient if we want a huge storm. Next week has the looks of a SECS/MECS.

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The GFS looks really promising. The subtropical jet is pumping on the GFS. Combine that with the cold air and bam. Like you said, I think we have to be patient if we want a huge storm. Next week has the looks of a SECS/MECS.

If we could get the PV a little further west for mid-week that could draw the coastal closer to the coast.

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We get another shot of the PV around the end of next week before the entire country begins to moderate around the 8-10th of March. Above freezing 850mb temps get well up into northern Canada and the PV retreats way up to near Greenland.

Im starting to kind of go with what your saying in correlation to this. An archambault event to break the cold regime and i think starting next week into next week is when we'll actually see the possibility of a large snowstorm on the EC increase.
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We get another shot of the PV around the end of next week before the entire country begins to moderate around the 8-10th of March. Above freezing 850mb temps get well up into northern Canada and the PV retreats way up to near Greenland.

It's really difficult to say we fully moderate by then as that's beyond 300 hrs and seasonal models and weeklies say we stay cold for the month of March. I'm sure we'll moderate eventually, but it could be a transient period between cold and warm with the outcome favoring below normal rather than above. 

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For those interested the 12z EURO does bring back the weekend storm but shunts OTS. It is still there, looks like we'll be coming back to this threat monday/tuesday while we're tracking the wednesday system

I hate to say this but looking at that storm if the ECM ends up going back to its prior solutions ...this storm has the looks that would break records... Lets see how this plays out in the coming days!

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I hate to say this but looking at that storm if the ECM ends up going back to its prior solutions ...this storm has the looks that would break records... Lets see how this plays out in the coming days!

Any storm from next weekend on has the "POTENTIAL" to be pretty damn big snowstorm for the EC. Lets get to tuesday and the wednesday storm before honking at the "wiggum storm" ( he put his name on it ) better than henry maguisity storm then it would be a storm for the caribbean :lol:
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We don't even need that big of an event here to make history with two 60"+

seasons in 3 years and we already set the record with three 50"+ seasons in 4

years at Central Park. NYC is currently at 57.1"

Feel confident wednesday will tip 60", beyond that its a crap shoot ( besides the wiggum storm 3/1 )

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if you want big totals with the atlantic flow so fast you have to hope for a strong system to thread the needle. otherwise it will be multiple weak waves

Your absolutely right. We need a Miller A to bomb out and negative tilt at the right time a la 3/1 to get big widespread totals. I mean we've done great with what we've gotten this year. The 3/1 threat would be just that, a wound up Miller A that "could" dump on a large area on the EC. Whether it happens or not is still wayyyyy up in the air. A transient block, 50/50, PNA spike and a nice bowling ball would be perfect

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Feel confident wednesday will tip 60", beyond that its a crap shoot ( besides the wiggum storm 3/1 )

 

I would love to run this back to the LIA and see if it has been done before.But the recent frequency of

heavy snowstorms makes me think that it's at least possible that this is a first since the Dutch arrived.

 

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I would love to run this back to the LIA and see if it has been done before.

nysnow.gif

We've been quite spoiled in the 2000's with KU events. Further i look into the 80's we really didnt have bad setups sometimes just bad timing. This run we've been on more often than not if the pieces are there they find a way to make it come together on the EC, prime example; this winter chris

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You don`t turn the corner with that crashing into the west coast .  The Ensembles and the Control are well south and east .

Look for Wed to improve with a nice ridge axis out west before you worry about next weekend.

that might actually be the storm to watch (The one crashing into the West Coast) vs next weekend.

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Wednesday is a much more conducive set up as progged than the D8+ ghost right now. Strong -EPO block over AK, PNA ridge axis near the classic Boise ID location, departing 50/50 low, height rises poking southward in Greenland, and PV near the SW shore of Hudson's Bay. Slightly more separation b/t the PV and 50-50 low will allow heights to rise along the SE US coast and the incoming short wave to move further north. There's room for a trend closer to the coast with that one.

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that might actually be the storm to watch (The one crashing into the West Coast) vs next weekend.

The ensembles want to take that to the EC around the 5th .  I`m not sleeping on Monday yet , and I think Wed is no slouch .  So all that other stuff is just too far for me

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Wednesday is a much more conducive set up as progged than the D8+ ghost right now. Strong -EPO block over AK, PNA ridge axis near the classic Boise ID location, departing 50/50 low, height rises poking southward in Greenland, and PV near the SW shore of Hudson's Bay. Slightly more separation b/t the PV and 50-50 low will allow heights to rise along the SE US coast and the incoming short wave to move further north. There's room for a trend closer to the coast with that one.

 

Yeah, we just need another under 120 hr NW creep with 12-15:1  rations along the -10C 850 line nearby.

 

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Oldest temperature record in NYC CPK almanac in danger? On March 01, 1869 a low of +4 was recorded during the first year of official record keeping. Single digits are possible 2/27-3/02 with a ridiculous -21C +/-4C 850's and near 510dm +/-10dm. thickness nearby. If these temps. are not realized might not our 2/28 storm come back as a consolation prize?

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