MJO812 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Good luck with that. We don't have spring in our area. We go from Winter right into Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 We don't have spring in our area. We go from Winter right into Summer. As long as its over 40 and not snowing ill take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 The ensemble mean is colder than the OP near the end of the run and the new JMA week 2 agrees. In fact, the new JMA has below normal temperatures here for the next 28 day period on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 There is a banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The ensemble mean is colder than the OP near the end of the run and the new JMA week 2 agrees. In fact, the new JMA has below normal temperatures here for the next 28 day period on average. Temperature32at32850hPa_North32America_240.gif Y201402.D2012_gl2.png Y201402.D2012_gl2.png Hey man , just saw the JMA , Week 1 is nuts , but to see that week 3 and week 4 means that as the wave lengths shorten , even though you fight the climo the last 15 days of March where you`re average highs are in the mid 40`s , the trough is in the east in the means with a Pos PNA you will have a shot to snow all the way to the end . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Hey man , just saw the JMA , Week 1 is nuts , but to see that week 3 and week 4 means that as the wave lengths shorten , even though you fight the climo the last 15 days of March where you`re average highs are in the mid 40`s , the trough is in the east in the means with a Pos PNA you will have a shot to snow all the way to the end . I guess since the models aren't currently forecasting a PV split, I would rather take my chances on at least a front end thump as the PV begins retreating and Arctic high pressure moves in behind it. The recent runs of the Euro had too much of a March 1980 suppressed look with the PV too far south and a positive tilt trough OTS track for us. The Day 10 or so means look more overrunning or gradient like cold at least at the beginning of any potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I guess since the models aren't currently forecasting a PV split, I would rather take my chances on at least a front end thump as the PV begins retreating and Arctic high pressure moves in behind it. The recent runs of the Euro had too much of a March 1980 suppressed look with the PV too far south and a positive tilt trough OTS track for us. The Day 10 or so means look more overrunning or gradient like cold at least at the beginning of any potential storm. But it's backed off on the neg nao. I'm not buying any shunts. I think next wed is closer to coast and next weekends system will b the SW that crosses cali this week i know it's going to get lost in the mid range but that gets to the east coast it's prob a wide spread storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I still like next weekend for a serious threat even though verbatim its not on the models attm. All the teleconnections are there for a major storm and I'm going to remain all-in until proven wrong otherwise. Might it be a major hit in the mid atl or southeast? Yes. Suppression in this pattern concerns me but there will be a major storm. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 But it's backed off on the neg nao. I'm not buying any shunts. I think next wed is closer to coast and next weekends system will b the SW that crosses cali this week i know it's going to get lost in the mid range but that gets to the east coast it's prob a wide spread storm. The loss of the -NAO should help in the suppression department as you said and the wednesday storm as stated before by you is storm that has trended wetter and closer to the coast this season. The weekend storm ( albeit noise at this point ) is going to have a pretty damn sharp +PNA so that should help its chances compared to the weekend storm a few weeks ago that broke alot of weenies hearts. I just have a feeling this is going to be quite a bookend winter for us by the time winter breaks for good paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I still like next weekend for a serious threat even though verbatim its not on the models attm. All the teleconnections are there for a major storm and I'm going to remain all-in until proven wrong otherwise. Might it be a major hit in the mid atl or southeast? Yes. Suppression in this pattern concerns me but there will be a major storm. thank you Wiggum going for the grand slam in the first inning! As paul just pointed out the EURO losing some of the neg neo "should" help us out with the suppression but we still have to be attentive to PV strength/location and also the +PNA to get a widespread storm on the EC next weekend. Models are doing what they do right now, lose threats only to sometimes bring it back. By tuesday/ wednesday we "should" know what the weekend storm is going to look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Wiggum going for the grand slam in the first inning! As paul just pointed out the EURO losing some of the neg neo "should" help us out with the suppression but we still have to be attentive to PV strength/location and also the +PNA to get a widespread storm on the EC next weekend. Models are doing what they do right now, lose threats only to sometimes bring it back. By tuesday/ wednesday we "should" know what the weekend storm is going to look likeI don't think we lost the -nao as much as it is weak and transient like we've seen all winter. That is perfect. ..we don't need nor want a massive block with the pv pressing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I don't think we lost the -nao as much as it is weak and transient like we've seen all winter. That is perfect. ..we don't need nor want a massive block with the pv pressing south. Correct. Pattern looking fantastic really isnt a layup still and we're still about 8 days away so model runs will change. Besides we may make something out of the wednesday threat as well. Exciting times ahead my friend, and trust me nobody wants to admit it but the potential with this pattern is the sky is the limit but we got to understand that is just potential not the eventual outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 reading this thread lately sounds like this-------------- Next weekend we are going to have a serious storm event, major, biblical, historical, huge, big, high confidence and weenie breaker storm event In meteorological terms that means exactly "sh%^" Lets talk about analogs and comparison to previous weather patterns that bring about this storm please. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 reading this thread lately sounds like this-------------- Next weekend we are going to have a serious storm event, major, biblical, historical, huge, big, high confidence and weenie breaker storm event In meteorological terms that means exactly "sh%^" Lets talk about analogs and comparison to previous weather patterns that bring about this storm please. Thankscomparisons to other storms rarely work out fwiw. Those cips analogs are generally thrown around for kicks and giggles. According to cips I should have about 300" of snow here this season. So pfffft to the analogs. Use the actual teleconnections which look quite favorablethank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 reading this thread lately sounds like this-------------- Next weekend we are going to have a serious storm event, major, biblical, historical, huge, big, high confidence and weenie breaker storm event In meteorological terms that means exactly "sh%^" Lets talk about analogs and comparison to previous weather patterns that bring about this storm please. Thanks We're not really forecasting to happen or not to happen. We're recognizing the pattern in that it can produce something pretty big on the EC next weekend, operative word "CAN" not "WILL". Speculation is all we're doing with the current data and teleconnectors heading into next week and the eventual weekend storm possibility. Wiggum is the only one all-in for the storm and although me being enthusiastic just being reasonable as well. This really isnt too bad of thread, but the pattern recognition shows it can yeild some big storms that may or may not be historic in a NESIS way or just to a localized area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Split flow out west with a +pna, east based -nao, -epo with waves undercutting it, pv in eastern canada, plenty of energy diving into the plains around the rear quad of the pv. Is it "perfect"? No but 500mb honking for a storm potential. Sign me up :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The ECMWF and GEFS ensembles are still in pretty good agreement with our region staying on the southern periphery of the PV. With a continued active southern jet, storm chances will continue to show up, and they probably won't be very obvious more than a few days in advance. The flow still remains very progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Several quick thoughts: First, the forecast pattern is still a good one for above average snowfall for the 2/25-3/10 period. Second, that the ECMWF has backed off its blockbuster snowstorm does not change things. Indeed, during the 1/25-2/15 timeframe, the models went through a similar retreat on snowfall opportunities for a time. Yet, that period proved exceptionally snowy when all worked out, and it included a 12.5" snowfall for NYC (more in the Hudson Valley/western NJ). Overall, I believe it is very likely that NYC will reach and surpass 60" seasonal snowfall by March 10 and perhaps climb past winter 1947-48 by March 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Several quick thoughts: First, the forecast pattern is still a good one for above average snowfall for the 2/25-3/10 period. Second, that the ECMWF has backed off its blockbuster snowstorm does not change things. Indeed, during the 1/25-2/15 timeframe, the models went through a similar retreat on snowfall opportunities for a time. Yet, that period proved exceptionally snowy when all worked out, and it included a 12.5" snowfall for NYC (more in the Hudson Valley/western NJ). Overall, I believe it is very likely that NYC will reach and surpass 60" seasonal snowfall by March 10 and perhaps climb past winter 1947-48 by March 10. Looks very Jan and Feb . I think number 2 is a lock . Then we go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Several quick thoughts: First, the forecast pattern is still a good one for above average snowfall for the 2/25-3/10 period. Second, that the ECMWF has backed off its blockbuster snowstorm does not change things. Indeed, during the 1/25-2/15 timeframe, the models went through a similar retreat on snowfall opportunities for a time. Yet, that period proved exceptionally snowy when all worked out, and it included a 12.5" snowfall for NYC (more in the Hudson Valley/western NJ). Overall, I believe it is very likely that NYC will reach and surpass 60" seasonal snowfall by March 10 and perhaps climb past winter 1947-48 by March 10. Looks very Jan and Feb . I think number 2 is a lock . Then we go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Several quick thoughts: First, the forecast pattern is still a good one for above average snowfall for the 2/25-3/10 period. Second, that the ECMWF has backed off its blockbuster snowstorm does not change things. Indeed, during the 1/25-2/15 timeframe, the models went through a similar retreat on snowfall opportunities for a time. Yet, that period proved exceptionally snowy when all worked out, and it included a 12.5" snowfall for NYC (more in the Hudson Valley/western NJ). Overall, I believe it is very likely that NYC will reach and surpass 60" seasonal snowfall by March 10 and perhaps climb past winter 1947-48 by March 10. Was just going to post the same thing. A couple of weeks we missed out on that blizzard, only to get blasted 4 days later. In any individual winter season, a lot of times you see patterns repeat themselves, i.e. storms moving NW toward the coastline. With this upcoming dynamic pattern, I don't think its a matter of if we get a big storm but when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 1044mb high moving into the plains the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 1044mb high moving into the plains the middle of next week. Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looks like the PV is going to try and split on the 12z GFS today. Our redeveloping coastal for Wednesday deepens to the 950's up in Canada btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Wow the GFS is cold moving forward. Unheard of for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Wow the GFS is cold moving forward. Unheard of for March. GFS also likes to over estimate the cold in some cases so i would be careful. It is mighty cold though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 -20C 850 temps for a few days next week. Some spots -24 to -30C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 No big storm for next weekend on the GFS. Too many vorts for the models to figure out which one to focus on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 No big storm for next weekend on the GFS. Too many vorts for the models to figure out which one to focus on. we can still do well with these smaller vorts rounding the base of the PV/Cold air dome. As the GFS shows today, alot of minor to moderate events possible. STJ also gets active towards the end of the week. Pattern's loaded with potential even if we don't see a HECS or MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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