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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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The long range 18z GFS continues to look great for a possible big storm around the first week of March. At day 7 you have your potent southern stream wave in the four corners region and a potent northern stream wave rotating around the PV and southward through western Canada. The southern stream wave looks to undercut the western ridge, instead of knocking it down, which is the key here. Not sure if this run will show a big storm for the area, but this is a pretty classic setup.

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The long range 18z GFS continues to look great for a possible big storm around the first week of March. At day 7 you have your potent southern stream wave in the four corners region and a potent northern stream wave rotating around the PV and southward through western Canada. The southern stream wave looks to undercut the western ridge, instead of knocking it down, which is the key here. Not sure if this run will show a big storm for the area, but this is a pretty classic setup.

this would be for the weekend storm of the one there after?

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lol if you want the storm to get up here, you need splitting. Haven't you even looked at the models today? All of them show the PV staying in 1 piece and suppressing the storm.

It's pretty simple

You can get a system that passes more west to east across the county and still have it track to our south, but far enough north for us to cash in.
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You can get a system that passes more west to east across the county and still have it track to our south, but far enough north for us to cash in.

 

That would be overrunning. For the big gulf storms which we could potentially be dealing with next weekend, you need the PV to split and relax. 

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bottom line is this pattern starting Monday and going into the following week I would be shocked if we weren't tracking something under 96 hours that wasn't a widespread MECS+. next weekend is really the first "BIG ONE" then earlier the following week. lets just get past the sunday/Monday and Wednesday threats before we dive into the potential bigger storms from the GOM :popcorn:

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bottom line is this pattern starting Monday and going into the following week I would be shocked if we weren't tracking something under 96 hours that wasn't a widespread MECS+. next weekend is really the first "BIG ONE" then earlier the following week. lets just get past the sunday/Monday and Wednesday threats before we dive into the potential bigger storms from the GOM :popcorn:

Why does every post have to have the word "Historic" in it? Just let things play out, I don't know how long you've been following the weather but even a very favorable pattern will only produce a HECS less than 10% of the time (hence the historic part). Just look at the pattern as being favorable for snow, as you get within 3 days you can start getting bullish.
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