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Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

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What does the Euro look like in the long range?

Signal is strong as ever as far as I'm concerned... big-time phase a few frames too late for us, but the pieces are there and some minor reshuffling would have done the trick. Here's hoping something a little more substantial starts showing itself before then so we won't have to put all our eggs into one dubious basket.

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Signal is strong as ever as far as I'm concerned... big-time phase a few frames too late for us, but the pieces are there and some minor reshuffling would have done the trick. Here's hoping something a little more substantial starts showing itself before then so we won't have to put all our eggs into one dubious basket.

 

Yes agreed.  Signal is still there.  Soooo far out there though. One thing is for sure the cold air is coming back big time!

 

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!2

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Yes agreed. Signal is still there. Soooo far out there though. One thing is for sure the cold air is coming back big time!

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!2

Yes indeed if and a big IF the weekend does hit us, its going to be high QPF/high ratio event that would really add to the totals. Obviously WAY out there and only taking IF it were to hit us head on full force. Pieces are there, lets get through the next 5 days and see if they can align to get a nice storm to bookend the winter ;)
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One thing the storms from monday on wont lack is cold air. High ratio storm(s) again like much of this year.

 

That high with the PV dropping dropping down just north of the Lakes would be one of the strongest Arctic shots near

the end of February and beginning March from the MW and Lakes eastward in many years. But we can

work out the storm track and details later on.

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That high with the PV dropping dropping down just north of the Lakes would be one of the strongest Arctic shots near

the end of February and beginning March from the MW and Lakes eastward in many years. But we can

work out the storm track and details later on.

Biggest fear ( WAY OFF STILL ) would be suppression with the push of cold air but as you said lets see what transpires, also tendency this year has been for these HP to weaken as we get closer a good bit or dissapear

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That high with the PV dropping dropping down just north of the Lakes would be one of the strongest Arctic shots near

the end of February and beginning March from the MW and Lakes eastward in many years. But we can

work out the storm track and details later on.

That`s as cold in some places as it has been all year 

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Larry cosgrove just posted on Facebook that he thinks last night's 0z Euro is wrong with the track of the winter storm at 240hrs. He says at that point the pv has retreated all the way to the north pole and he says he feels there will be a storm but it will take a track much closer to the coast then what the 0z Euro shows. sounds like he thinks there will be a storm but it will most likely be a coastal hugger! !!!!

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Larry cosgrove just posted on Facebook that he thinks last night's 0z Euro is wrong with the track of the winter storm at 240hrs. He says at that point the pv has retreated all the way to the north pole and he says he feels there will be a storm but it will take a track much closer to the coast then what the 0z Euro shows. sounds like he thinks there will be a storm but it will most likely be a coastal hugger! !!!!

It's basically like throwing a dart at 240 hrs. It's impossible to iron out the details that far out, and I'm more interested in looking at more near medium range threat like early next week. Do not analyze each model run and instead look at the big picture, the EPO, the NAO, the MJO, and the location of the PV. There's no way to determine what will happen in terms of snow threats, and the only thing I can be sure of is that it will be much colder than normal heading into next week. 

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Larry cosgrove just posted on Facebook that he thinks last night's 0z Euro is wrong with the track of the winter storm at 240hrs. He says at that point the pv has retreated all the way to the north pole and he says he feels there will be a storm but it will take a track much closer to the coast then what the 0z Euro shows. sounds like he thinks there will be a storm but it will most likely be a coastal hugger! !!!!

he also said winter was over after 2/8 event. Both the event and winter over did not happen...just one opinion among many

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Larry cosgrove just posted on Facebook that he thinks last night's 0z Euro is wrong with the track of the winter storm at 240hrs. He says at that point the pv has retreated all the way to the north pole and he says he feels there will be a storm but it will take a track much closer to the coast then what the 0z Euro shows. sounds like he thinks there will be a storm but it will most likely be a coastal hugger! !!!!

We have a vendor thread for garbage like this

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We have a vendor thread for garbage like this

Sorry wrong thread to respond but they're is a pretty big push of cold air next week leading up to the weekend and dont see currently how this would hug the coast as currently forecasted. Alas this is 200+ hours out so arguing over scenarios is futile

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Sorry wrong thread to respond but they're is a pretty big push of cold air next week leading up to the weekend and dont see currently how this would hug the coast as currently forecasted. Alas this is 200+ hours out so arguing over scenarios is futile

Any and all options are still on the table ..from nothing to a big storm. Look at the big picture. If any one of the pieces for this set up are modeled wrong , you will most likely have a totally different solution. Give it at least a few days.

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Any and all options are still on the table ..from nothing to a big storm. Look at the big picture. If any one of the pieces for this set up are modeled wrong , you will most likely have a totally different solution. Give it at least a few days.

Thats why i said 200+ hours out details are futile im just chalking this up to another commercial forecaster trying to be the first one to point out what happens and if it does tout it as his success. Anyway off commercial forecast exerpts.....

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We have a vendor thread for garbage like this

Sorry posted it in the wrong thread. Wasn't sure witch to post it since the storm was be discussed in this thread and a couple of pages back there was stuff posted about what Dt said so I thought it would be ok to post. Again sorry won't happen again...

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Thats why i said 200+ hours out details are futile im just chalking this up to another commercial forecaster trying to be the first one to point out what happens and if it does tout it as his success. Anyway off commercial forecast exerpts.....

I posted a philosophical response to this in the vendor thread—feel free to take a look at your leisure.

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