Juliancolton Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The GFS actually seems to want troughing/the PV to return south in the extreme weenie-range after relaxing the first few days of March. I'm sure it's just background noise at this point but it could be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 And in Fantasy Land, the GFS tosses in another storm at 372 for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro likes Tuesday now...nice snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro likes Tuesday now...nice snow event Anything for Sunday nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Anything for Sunday nite? nope, only light snow in SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro likes Tuesday now...nice snow event yeah a general 1-3 for the area - the 2-3" being confined s/w of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Euro likes Tuesday now...nice snow event 850s minus 10 surface falls into the low 20`s .3 to.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 850s minus 10 surface falls into the low 20`s .3 to.4 that translates into more of 3-6 turf than it does 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 that translates into more of 3-6 turf than it does 1-3 My bad .2 its 1 to 3 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 What does the Euro look like in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 What does the Euro look like in the long range? Weekend storm is still there but it is punted OTS. It is a risk we're going to have to contend with as we have the PV and the NAO starting cooperate in tandem next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 What does the Euro look like in the long range? Signal is strong as ever as far as I'm concerned... big-time phase a few frames too late for us, but the pieces are there and some minor reshuffling would have done the trick. Here's hoping something a little more substantial starts showing itself before then so we won't have to put all our eggs into one dubious basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Signal is strong as ever as far as I'm concerned... big-time phase a few frames too late for us, but the pieces are there and some minor reshuffling would have done the trick. Here's hoping something a little more substantial starts showing itself before then so we won't have to put all our eggs into one dubious basket. Yes agreed. Signal is still there. Soooo far out there though. One thing is for sure the cold air is coming back big time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Yes agreed. Signal is still there. Soooo far out there though. One thing is for sure the cold air is coming back big time! Yes indeed if and a big IF the weekend does hit us, its going to be high QPF/high ratio event that would really add to the totals. Obviously WAY out there and only taking IF it were to hit us head on full force. Pieces are there, lets get through the next 5 days and see if they can align to get a nice storm to bookend the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 While the storm details will change from run to run later in the forecast period, the one constant has been a frigid 1050 mb Arctic high slipping down directly form the north pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 While the storm details will change from run to run later in the forecast period, the one constant has been a frigid 1050 mb Arctic high slipping down directly form the north pole. ECH1-144.gif ECH1-216.gif One thing the storms from monday on wont lack is cold air. High ratio storm(s) again like much of this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 One thing the storms from monday on wont lack is cold air. High ratio storm(s) again like much of this year. That high with the PV dropping dropping down just north of the Lakes would be one of the strongest Arctic shots near the end of February and beginning March from the MW and Lakes eastward in many years. But we can work out the storm track and details later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 That high with the PV dropping dropping down just north of the Lakes would be one of the strongest Arctic shots near the end of February and beginning March from the MW and Lakes eastward in many years. But we can work out the storm track and details later on. Biggest fear ( WAY OFF STILL ) would be suppression with the push of cold air but as you said lets see what transpires, also tendency this year has been for these HP to weaken as we get closer a good bit or dissapear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 That high with the PV dropping dropping down just north of the Lakes would be one of the strongest Arctic shots near the end of February and beginning March from the MW and Lakes eastward in many years. But we can work out the storm track and details later on. That`s as cold in some places as it has been all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Larry cosgrove just posted on Facebook that he thinks last night's 0z Euro is wrong with the track of the winter storm at 240hrs. He says at that point the pv has retreated all the way to the north pole and he says he feels there will be a storm but it will take a track much closer to the coast then what the 0z Euro shows. sounds like he thinks there will be a storm but it will most likely be a coastal hugger! !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Larry cosgrove just posted on Facebook that he thinks last night's 0z Euro is wrong with the track of the winter storm at 240hrs. He says at that point the pv has retreated all the way to the north pole and he says he feels there will be a storm but it will take a track much closer to the coast then what the 0z Euro shows. sounds like he thinks there will be a storm but it will most likely be a coastal hugger! !!!! It's basically like throwing a dart at 240 hrs. It's impossible to iron out the details that far out, and I'm more interested in looking at more near medium range threat like early next week. Do not analyze each model run and instead look at the big picture, the EPO, the NAO, the MJO, and the location of the PV. There's no way to determine what will happen in terms of snow threats, and the only thing I can be sure of is that it will be much colder than normal heading into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Larry cosgrove just posted on Facebook that he thinks last night's 0z Euro is wrong with the track of the winter storm at 240hrs. He says at that point the pv has retreated all the way to the north pole and he says he feels there will be a storm but it will take a track much closer to the coast then what the 0z Euro shows. sounds like he thinks there will be a storm but it will most likely be a coastal hugger! !!!! he also said winter was over after 2/8 event. Both the event and winter over did not happen...just one opinion among many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Larry cosgrove just posted on Facebook that he thinks last night's 0z Euro is wrong with the track of the winter storm at 240hrs. He says at that point the pv has retreated all the way to the north pole and he says he feels there will be a storm but it will take a track much closer to the coast then what the 0z Euro shows. sounds like he thinks there will be a storm but it will most likely be a coastal hugger! !!!! We have a vendor thread for garbage like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 We have a vendor thread for garbage like this Sorry wrong thread to respond but they're is a pretty big push of cold air next week leading up to the weekend and dont see currently how this would hug the coast as currently forecasted. Alas this is 200+ hours out so arguing over scenarios is futile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Sorry wrong thread to respond but they're is a pretty big push of cold air next week leading up to the weekend and dont see currently how this would hug the coast as currently forecasted. Alas this is 200+ hours out so arguing over scenarios is futile Any and all options are still on the table ..from nothing to a big storm. Look at the big picture. If any one of the pieces for this set up are modeled wrong , you will most likely have a totally different solution. Give it at least a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Any and all options are still on the table ..from nothing to a big storm. Look at the big picture. If any one of the pieces for this set up are modeled wrong , you will most likely have a totally different solution. Give it at least a few days. Thats why i said 200+ hours out details are futile im just chalking this up to another commercial forecaster trying to be the first one to point out what happens and if it does tout it as his success. Anyway off commercial forecast exerpts..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 We have a vendor thread for garbage like this Sorry posted it in the wrong thread. Wasn't sure witch to post it since the storm was be discussed in this thread and a couple of pages back there was stuff posted about what Dt said so I thought it would be ok to post. Again sorry won't happen again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Thats why i said 200+ hours out details are futile im just chalking this up to another commercial forecaster trying to be the first one to point out what happens and if it does tout it as his success. Anyway off commercial forecast exerpts..... I posted a philosophical response to this in the vendor thread—feel free to take a look at your leisure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Any word on the EURO ensembles regarding the day 9 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Any word on the EURO ensembles regarding the day 9 storm? Mostly suppressed to the south. They like March 4th better for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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