Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Much Colder Than Normal March Pattern Continues


bluewave

Recommended Posts

Honest, genuine question: has anybody actually verified the validity of this sentiment? It's become something of a meme on the board lately, and usually I idly accept blanket statements about model performance, seeing as I'm not well-versed in NWP tendencies. That said, I think the Euro out-performed most other pieces of guidance on Tuesday's clipper-redeveloper, and I haven't stumbled across any real literature on northern stream/southern stream verification scores amongst globals. I do agree that if I had to have just one model harping on a threat, I'd want it to be the Euro... I'm just not sure I agree on the reason for why that is.

 

From what I seen the at least past two winters so is the Euro seems to have dry/SE bias with weak/northern stream systems in our area. However, the GFS can be little too wet and ampflied, as well. Often a compromise between them, is the best way to go. Especially in the short-term.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Since everyone is playing it safe I will dive all-in with next weekend's threat and dub the system "The Wiggum Storm" ;-)

I particularly like the teleconnections!

Wiggum storm it is. When monday/tuesday rolls around i will start a thread title "the wiggum storm March 1-3 discussion". Im not sold yet but you have my moral support ;)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS just took a huge step towards the Euro with the big storm next weekend.

what does it show? Im sure no 965 low or 2 ft of snow but Im curious to say the least because its a southern screamer & for GFS to see it now is impressive. More importantly what does it show for SUN & Wed?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS just took a huge step towards the Euro with the big storm next weekend.

Im TRYING very hard to not get excited about this event. The inner-weenie in me is screaming to come out with the potential this holds. The EURO having it and GFS taking a big step towards it is a good sign, ill come back to this threat come monday if its still there ( expecting models to lose typically as well )

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Im TRYING very hard to not get excited about this event. The inner-weenie in me is screaming to come out with the potential this holds. The EURO having it and GFS taking a big step towards it is a good sign, ill come back to this threat come monday if its still there ( expecting models to lose typically as well )

but this is the one :-)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

but this is the one :-)

Im rooting for you certainly as this storm would dump on DC-MAINE. Its 9 days off and after that weekend snafu a few weeks back looking into another huge storm gives me the jitters at this range. Thats why monday ill decide whether i should buy into it or not ( not forgetting monday/wednesday threats either )

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS is now back to showing the sneaky system for Monday, the Euro had it on its 00Z run as well, both are mainly misses now but it won't take much to get a light snowfall

Yup.  Chances Mon and Wed, so don't want to get too caught up in what's ahead.

 

Remember the week of the 'blizzard that never was', we had that system come back from nowhere the Monday before and was the biggest event of the 3 we were tracking!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Im TRYING very hard to not get excited about this event. The inner-weenie in me is screaming to come out with the potential this holds. The EURO having it and GFS taking a big step towards it is a good sign, ill come back to this threat come monday if its still there ( expecting models to lose typically as well )

Still way too early to zero in on an event for next weekend. The main thing to look for is the pattern which COULD spawn that storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

and the pattern looks spectacular as progged right now

Progged right now it looks outstanding but even if it did look that way monday/ tuesday still the monday/ wednesday events could have ramifications that may help or hurt the storm potential next weekend. Im focusing currently on the monday/ wednesday threat while still keeping somewhat of an eye on the weekend by looking at in particular what the wednesday storm would do with it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It will be interesting to see if a place like JFK can reach the upper single digits before

the PV begins to recede north again in early March. This would be a very rare

occurrence since there are only  5 days below 10 degrees

there since 1950 between 2/27-3/20.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beware of Northern Branch features that 5 days out  are 1-2  3-4 . Arctic waves love to come N in  Neg EPO Pos PNA patterns .

They like to dig a little deeper as you get closer , they tend to well near the coast . GGEM  is a start . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also makes the pattern just look better and better going into next week. If we can get atleast some west based -NAO we should see some decent snow chances materialize starting next week

 

Yeah, it's a remarkably consistent pattern of -EPO ridge extension over to Greenland like we

have been seeing all winter.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...