Weathergun Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Honest, genuine question: has anybody actually verified the validity of this sentiment? It's become something of a meme on the board lately, and usually I idly accept blanket statements about model performance, seeing as I'm not well-versed in NWP tendencies. That said, I think the Euro out-performed most other pieces of guidance on Tuesday's clipper-redeveloper, and I haven't stumbled across any real literature on northern stream/southern stream verification scores amongst globals. I do agree that if I had to have just one model harping on a threat, I'd want it to be the Euro... I'm just not sure I agree on the reason for why that is. From what I seen the at least past two winters so is the Euro seems to have dry/SE bias with weak/northern stream systems in our area. However, the GFS can be little too wet and ampflied, as well. Often a compromise between them, is the best way to go. Especially in the short-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Since everyone is playing it safe I will dive all-in with next weekend's threat and dub the system "The Wiggum Storm" ;-) I particularly like the teleconnections! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 weatherbell counts mixed precip as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Since everyone is playing it safe I will dive all-in with next weekend's threat and dub the system "The Wiggum Storm" ;-) I particularly like the teleconnections! Wiggum storm it is. When monday/tuesday rolls around i will start a thread title "the wiggum storm March 1-3 discussion". Im not sold yet but you have my moral support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 GFS has the Monday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The GFS also brought back the midweek low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The GFS also brought back the midweek low. is it decent or just a wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 is it decent or just a wave? A decent low but just light snow. The low stays a little too far offshore for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 A decent low but just light snow. The low stays a little too far offshore for our area. Perfect-with the GFS SE bias, it will trend stronger for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Perfect-with the GFS SE bias, it will trend stronger for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Taking the GFS progressive and low QPF bias, this looks very good, especially this far out, looks like 3-6/4-8" arctic wave event to me (not verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 GFS just took a huge step towards the Euro with the big storm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 GFS just took a huge step towards the Euro with the big storm next weekend. what does it show? Im sure no 965 low or 2 ft of snow but Im curious to say the least because its a southern screamer & for GFS to see it now is impressive. More importantly what does it show for SUN & Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 GFS just took a huge step towards the Euro with the big storm next weekend. Im TRYING very hard to not get excited about this event. The inner-weenie in me is screaming to come out with the potential this holds. The EURO having it and GFS taking a big step towards it is a good sign, ill come back to this threat come monday if its still there ( expecting models to lose typically as well ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It's down South and out to sea, but you can see it really trying. At like 100 days out, that's what you want to start seeing (assuming the Euro holds on to it)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Im TRYING very hard to not get excited about this event. The inner-weenie in me is screaming to come out with the potential this holds. The EURO having it and GFS taking a big step towards it is a good sign, ill come back to this threat come monday if its still there ( expecting models to lose typically as well )but this is the one :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The GFS is now back to showing the sneaky system for Monday, the Euro had it on its 00Z run as well, both are mainly misses now but it won't take much to get a light snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 but this is the one :-) Im rooting for you certainly as this storm would dump on DC-MAINE. Its 9 days off and after that weekend snafu a few weeks back looking into another huge storm gives me the jitters at this range. Thats why monday ill decide whether i should buy into it or not ( not forgetting monday/wednesday threats either ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The GFS is now back to showing the sneaky system for Monday, the Euro had it on its 00Z run as well, both are mainly misses now but it won't take much to get a light snowfall Yup. Chances Mon and Wed, so don't want to get too caught up in what's ahead. Remember the week of the 'blizzard that never was', we had that system come back from nowhere the Monday before and was the biggest event of the 3 we were tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Oh what do you know...12Z GGEM for Monday at 96 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 here is a new topic to discuss the 2/26 potential http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42976-2262013-potential-snowstorm/ also there is a duplicate topic below that that was created when I pressed the post button twice by accident can a mod delete that one ? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Oh what do you know...12Z GGEM for Monday at 96 hours.... It's a 1-3" or 2-4" event for most on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Im TRYING very hard to not get excited about this event. The inner-weenie in me is screaming to come out with the potential this holds. The EURO having it and GFS taking a big step towards it is a good sign, ill come back to this threat come monday if its still there ( expecting models to lose typically as well ) Still way too early to zero in on an event for next weekend. The main thing to look for is the pattern which COULD spawn that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Still way too early to zero in on an event for next weekend. The main thing to look for is the pattern which COULD spawn that storm.and the pattern looks spectacular as progged right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 and the pattern looks spectacular as progged right now Progged right now it looks outstanding but even if it did look that way monday/ tuesday still the monday/ wednesday events could have ramifications that may help or hurt the storm potential next weekend. Im focusing currently on the monday/ wednesday threat while still keeping somewhat of an eye on the weekend by looking at in particular what the wednesday storm would do with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 It will be interesting to see if a place like JFK can reach the upper single digits before the PV begins to recede north again in early March. This would be a very rare occurrence since there are only 5 days below 10 degrees there since 1950 between 2/27-3/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Beware of Northern Branch features that 5 days out are 1-2 3-4 . Arctic waves love to come N in Neg EPO Pos PNA patterns . They like to dig a little deeper as you get closer , they tend to well near the coast . GGEM is a start . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The MJO moving into Phase 7-8 and the PV makes the pattern look like an El Nino (2002-03) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The MJO moving into Phase 7-8 and the PV makes the pattern look like an El Nino (2002-03) Also makes the pattern just look better and better going into next week. If we can get atleast some west based -NAO we should see some decent snow chances materialize starting next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Also makes the pattern just look better and better going into next week. If we can get atleast some west based -NAO we should see some decent snow chances materialize starting next week Yeah, it's a remarkably consistent pattern of -EPO ridge extension over to Greenland like we have been seeing all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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