wxman9 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 8:45 PM, YanksFan27 said: Mostly suppressed to the south. They like March 4th better for our area. Hahahaha March 4th, now there's a forecast I can hang my hat on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I find it somewhat interesting today that the number one analog over the east at 120 hours is 2/6/03. May not seem all that significant but we all know about the storm which ensued about a week or so later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The long range 18z GFS continues to look great for a possible big storm around the first week of March. At day 7 you have your potent southern stream wave in the four corners region and a potent northern stream wave rotating around the PV and southward through western Canada. The southern stream wave looks to undercut the western ridge, instead of knocking it down, which is the key here. Not sure if this run will show a big storm for the area, but this is a pretty classic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:29 PM, YanksFan27 said: The long range 18z GFS continues to look great for a possible big storm around the first week of March. At day 7 you have your potent southern stream wave in the four corners region and a potent northern stream wave rotating around the PV and southward through western Canada. The southern stream wave looks to undercut the western ridge, instead of knocking it down, which is the key here. Not sure if this run will show a big storm for the area, but this is a pretty classic setup. this would be for the weekend storm of the one there after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:31 PM, REDMK6GLI said: this would be for the weekend storm of the one there after? This would be for the day ten threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:32 PM, YanksFan27 said: This would be for the day ten threat. so march 3-4th? I was confused. I just want to get past next week before looking at anything that far out remotely seriously. I know your not seriously looking into this yet but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The GFS will be hurt here by truncation but it had a great look up until that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:35 PM, REDMK6GLI said: so march 3-4th? I was confused. I just want to get past next week before looking at anything that far out remotely seriously. I know your not seriously looking into this yet but..... We have separate threads to discuss the systems next week. Anything long range I'm discussing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 We'll have to watch the system coming in post day ten as well, 18z GFS shows a cutter but the Euro ensembles have been rather bullish in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:36 PM, YanksFan27 said: We have separate threads to discuss the systems next week. Anything long range I'm discussing here. don't have one for the march 1-2 storm possibility but too early to start that anyway. we have three legit threats starting Monday going to next Saturday, fun times ahead yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:35 PM, YanksFan27 said: The GFS will be hurt here by truncation but it had a great look up until that hour. I don't think it looked great. The PV was showing no signs of splitting up and the gfs does not have the nao block the euro showed us at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Fwiw - 12z GEFS with a cold look right to the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:48 PM, CooL said: I don't think it looked great. The PV was showing no signs of splitting up and the gfs does not have the nao block the euro showed us at 12z. wouldn't be looking at the GFS in this pattern. Im going with the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:48 PM, CooL said: I don't think it looked great. The PV was showing no signs of splitting up and the gfs does not have the nao block the euro showed us at 12z.We don't need the PV to split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:51 PM, YanksFan27 said: We don't need the PV to split. it would certainly help or atleast have it in a position that would allow negative tilt on the east coast for something that comes out of the southern branch and not be suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:51 PM, YanksFan27 said: We don't need the PV to split. lol if you want the storm to get up here, you need splitting. Haven't you even looked at the models today? All of them show the PV staying in 1 piece and suppressing the storm. It's pretty simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:52 PM, CooL said: lol if you want the storm to get up here, you need splitting. Haven't you even looked at the models today? All of them show the PV staying in 1 piece and suppressing the storm. It's pretty simple You can get a system that passes more west to east across the county and still have it track to our south, but far enough north for us to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:56 PM, YanksFan27 said: You can get a system that passes more west to east across the county and still have it track to our south, but far enough north for us to cash in. That would be overrunning. For the big gulf storms which we could potentially be dealing with next weekend, you need the PV to split and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:59 PM, CooL said: That would be overrunning. For the big gulf storms which we could potentially be dealing with next weekend, you need the PV to split and relax.i'm aware. The Euro had this a few runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 With the southern stream becoming active later next week-we could end up with a bowling ball across the country... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 11:06 PM, Brian5671 said: With the southern stream becoming active later next week-we could end up with a bowling ball across the country...Precisely my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 11:08 PM, YanksFan27 said: Precisely my point. Yep. Pattern is loaded with potential. Doubt we go high and dry for 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I sort of liked the idea of a bowling ball here better then a true coastal. Great over running snows benefit more people and then you can still get the heavy snows from the coastal as it passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Jan 1996, March 2001 (lol I know) and April 1982 are example of bowling ball storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 11:23 PM, +SNfreak21 said: Jan 1996, March 2001 (lol I know) and April 1982 are example of bowling ball storms. Hmmmm. I thought I remembered the 82 storm coming up the coast from Fl ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 11:53 PM, nyblizz44 said: Hmmmm. I thought I remembered the 82 storm coming up the coast from Fl ? Nah it moved west to east in a Miller B-type fashion: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1982/us0406.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Boxing Day also was originally showing up as a bowling ball storm before flipping to a true miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 bottom line is this pattern starting Monday and going into the following week I would be shocked if we weren't tracking something under 96 hours that wasn't a widespread MECS+. next weekend is really the first "BIG ONE" then earlier the following week. lets just get past the sunday/Monday and Wednesday threats before we dive into the potential bigger storms from the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 On 2/21/2014 at 12:14 AM, REDMK6GLI said: bottom line is this pattern starting Monday and going into the following week I would be shocked if we weren't tracking something under 96 hours that wasn't a widespread MECS+. next weekend is really the first "BIG ONE" then earlier the following week. lets just get past the sunday/Monday and Wednesday threats before we dive into the potential bigger storms from the GOM Why does every post have to have the word "Historic" in it? Just let things play out, I don't know how long you've been following the weather but even a very favorable pattern will only produce a HECS less than 10% of the time (hence the historic part). Just look at the pattern as being favorable for snow, as you get within 3 days you can start getting bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 so far KNYC has 13 snowfalls of an inch or more...The 12.5" February storm I counted as two events... 1" or more... 1995-96 14 1993-94 13 2013-14 13 1963-64 11 1966-67 11 2002-03 10 2008-09 10 2010-11 10 1976-77 9 1977-78 9 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41518-nyc-snowfall/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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