bluewave Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The long range models are hinting at one of the coldest starts to March since 1980. A very strong cross polar flow will develop and deliver temperatures potentially well below normal around here near the beginning of March. Temperatures at JFK set daily records in the range of 8-12 degrees early in March 1980. March 1-3 1980 was famous for a record breaking late season snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region. That storm was suppressed mostly south due to the orientation of the trough and polar vortex. While storm details at day 10-15 are virtually impossible to know, a general late season winter storm signal may exist for parts of the East. Way too soon to tell if the storm potential gets suppressed or comes right up the coast into our area. But the CPC having it as the number 1 analog highlights the potential that there could be a storm somewhere in the East. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/19800301/19800301.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 March 2-3, 1994 had a major noreaster bringing 5-7" of snow and sleet to NYC...Other years with big snows at the beginning of March... 1913-14 had 14" on the 1st-2nd... 1967-68 had 6.6" on the 1st... 2008-09 had 8.3" on the 2nd-3rd... 1995-96 had 4.6" on the 2nd... 1959-60 had 14" on the 3rd-4th... 1977-78 had 5" on the 3rd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 March 2-3, 1994 had a major noreaster bringing 5-7" of snow and sleet to NYC...Other years with big snows at the beginning of March... 1913-14 had 14" on the 1st-2nd... 1967-68 had 6.6" on the 1st... 2008-09 had 8.3" on the 2nd-3rd... 1995-96 had 4.6" on the 2nd... 1960-61 had 14" on the 3rd-4th... 1977-78 had 5" on the 3rd... March 5, 2001 was close but no cigar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 March 2-3, 1994 had a major noreaster bringing 5-7" of snow and sleet to NYC...Other years with big snows at the beginning of March... 1913-14 had 14" on the 1st-2nd... 1967-68 had 6.6" on the 1st... 2008-09 had 8.3" on the 2nd-3rd... 1995-96 had 4.6" on the 2nd... 1959-60 had 14" on the 3rd-4th... 1977-78 had 5" on the 3rd... We'll see if we can pull off two snow events with a potential storm on the Arctic front late in February and another storm when the PV pulls out in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS is still signaling a big storm around the 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NYC record of 75.6" in 95-96 winter seriously in jeopardy given long-range prognostications. What is PHL's record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We'll see if we can pull off two snow events with a potential storm on the Arctic front late in February and another storm when the PV pulls out in early March. I agree the Canadian and the euro ensembles look to bring the vortex right thru the lakes into the northeast And like all arctic waves the furthest east you are the more snow you will see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NYC record of 75.6" in 95-96 winter seriously in jeopardy given long-range prognostications. What is PHL's record? There's still nearly 20" to go before we could break that record, or nearly an average season's snowfall total so I'm not so sure about it being in jeopardy. If for some reason, NYC could clear 60" after tomorrow then I'd be more inclined to believe this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NYC record of 75.6" in 95-96 winter seriously in jeopardy given long-range prognostications. What is PHL's record? 82 or 84 from 09-10 I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NYC record of 75.6" in 95-96 winter seriously in jeopardy given long-range prognostications. What is PHL's record? 78.7" - 09/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS has a weak/moderate storm signal for this Sunday/Monday and a strong storm signal for the 26th/27th. Also overall looks like a cold pattern once to this Saturday and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 There's still nearly 20" to go before we could break that record, or nearly an average season's snowfall total so I'm not so sure about it being in jeopardy. If for some reason, NYC could clear 60" after tomorrow then I'd be more inclined to believe this. The long-range models all show a very favorable pattern like March 1980 and March 1994. We have a -EPO as well as higher heights bleeding back into Baffin Bay with a big of a -NAO signal. Also, Central Park has a chance of 3-6" tonight. If they are close to 60" after tomorrow, then they just need 15" to tie the record with over a month of snowfall season left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 KNYC needs 20" of snowfall to tie 1995-96...On this date in 1996 KNYC had 61.7" up to this date...That's the record...1995-96 got 13.9" after today...Not many winters had more snow than that from here on...Since 1950 the most snowfall from this date going forward are... 1956...27.4" 1967...23.8" 2005...22.7" 1960...19.3" 1958...16.6" 1993...16.3" 1964...15.0" 1972...14.9" 1996...13.9" 1994...12.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 DT covers the late feb/early March potential in his video this morning..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kr0ibQAcYM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 82 or 84 from 09-10 I believe PHL's snowiest winters: 1. 78.7" 2009-10 2. 62.5" 1995-96 3. 55.4" 1898-99 and 2013-14 5. 54.9" 1977-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 PHL's snowiest winters: 1. 78.7" 2009-10 2. 62.5" 1995-96 3. 55.4" 1989-99 and 2013-14 5. 54.9" 1977-78 Don - if you have can you add Newark's as well - if not here PM . thanks. ECM looks frigid D8 - 10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If there's one more chance at a big storm, then late February and early March would be the best time with the PNA spiking and the fact that we're not too far gone with the season yet. I watched DT's video and he seemed a bit bitter with the northeast. While he mentioned a potential storm, he sort of downplayed its effects up here. If he's down in Virginia then there's a definite bias in his forecast with the pattern potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If there's one more chance at a big storm, then late February and early March would be the best time with the PNA spiking and the fact that we're not too far gone with the season yet. I watched DT's video and he seemed a bit bitter with the northeast. While he mentioned a potential storm, he sort of downplayed its effects up here. If he's down in Virginia then there's a definite bias in his forecast with the pattern potential. There has always been a bias in his forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Don - if you have can you add Newark's as well - if not here PM . thanks. ECM looks frigid D8 - 10... EWR: 1. 78.4" 1995-96 2. 73.5" 1960-61 3. 68.2" 2010-11 4. 64.9" 1977-78 5. 64.5" 1993-94 6. 58.4" 2013-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 KNYC needs 20" of snowfall to tie 1995-96...On this date in 1996 KNYC had 61.7" up to this date...That's the record...1995-96 got 13.9" after today...Not many winters had more snow than that from here on...Since 1950 the most snowfall from this date going forward are... 1956...27.4" 1967...23.8" 2005...22.7" 1960...19.3" 1958...16.6" 1993...16.3" 1964...15.0" 1972...14.9" 1996...13.9" 1994...12.1" I believe 2010 is missing from that list... we had a hazwopper of a storm late Feb that year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 ECMWF and GEFS forecast have MJO going into phase 7 and 8 late this month: Majority of the12z GFS ensembles support a winter storm threat around 26-27th Also some indications of split-flow developing in early March: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I believe 2010 is missing from that list... we had a hazwopper of a storm late Feb that year! 2010 was 20.9" after this date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 KNYC needs 20" of snowfall to tie 1995-96...On this date in 1996 KNYC had 61.7" up to this date...That's the record...1995-96 got 13.9" after today...Not many winters had more snow than that from here on...Since 1950 the most snowfall from this date going forward are... 1956...27.4" 1967...23.8" 2005...22.7" 1960...19.3" 1958...16.6" 1993...16.3" 1964...15.0" 1972...14.9" 1996...13.9" 1994...12.1" Just par for the course, Uncle, you are one or the essential posters in this forum for this type of info, and you are clearly part of NYC forum's elite front line with your own unique contribution. Our forum has lots or clutter, but between folks like you, Bluewave, Don S, SACRUS, Earthlight and a few others we have incredibly able posters filling in gaps for one another and specializing in their own areas. Kudos to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If there's one more chance at a big storm, then late February and early March would be the best time with the PNA spiking and the fact that we're not too far gone with the season yet. I watched DT's video and he seemed a bit bitter with the northeast. While he mentioned a potential storm, he sort of downplayed its effects up here. If he's down in Virginia then there's a definite bias in his forecast with the pattern potential. yep. it's just a given DT has a south-of philly bias. that's fine... because i know what happens 90% of the time. as long as he's bullish on VA/MD i'm optimistic it will likely translate north in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z Euro is absolutely brutal at the end of the run with -24C 850s: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If the euro and cmc are right, we could be looking at a Major winter storm pattern late feb and early march. The stars are aligning. We would have the mjo in our favor which could bring in a split flow. A ridiculous pacific and at the very least an east based -nao with all the cold on our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z CMC has the PV dropping like in Early Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If the euro and cmc are right, we could be looking at a Major winter storm pattern late feb and early march. The stars are aligning. We would have the mjo in our favor which could bring in a split flow. A ridiculous pacific and at the very least an east based -nao with all the cold on our side of the globe. that is a ticking time bomb for a MAJOR snowstorm along the east coast. lets see what we can make of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 2010 was 20.9" after this date. Which all came in one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just par for the course, Uncle, you are one or the essential posters in this forum for this type of info, and you are clearly part of NYC forum's elite front line with your own unique contribution. Our forum has lots or clutter, but between folks like you, Bluewave, Don S, SACRUS, Earthlight and a few others we have incredibly able posters filling in gaps for one another and specializing in their own areas. Kudos to you. thanks viking...I forgot 2010...thanks to Don and Dan for bringing it up...I didn't get that much snow on the island so it slipped my mind...I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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